数字产品定价博弈分析

数字产品的物理特性和经济特征决定了其不适合传统的定价方法。通过分析数字产品的交易特点发现,可以通过运用罗宾斯泰英的讨价还价模型,分析数字产品的定价方法,并得出结论:厂商和消费者博弈双方对销售收益的分配份额取决于双方的贴现因子。     

The influence of external reference price strategies in a nonprofit arts organization's “pay‐what‐you‐want” setting

Nonprofit arts organizations face conflicting objectives to balance—or more specifically, to create—artistic and educational value and to generate financial income from various sources. Pay‐what‐you‐want (PWYW), a participative pricing mechanism where services have no fixed price and customers actively decide what to pay, is a novel pricing mechanism and is of high interest for organizations and researchers alike. Based on the concepts of loss aversion and gain, this study presents a field experiment to test the effects of different PWYW pricing strategies on the amount of money paid by visitors of a German photo biennial. Explicitly, the provisions of minimum, maximum, and suggested external reference prices are compared to a setting with no external reference prices. We test the derived hypotheses, discuss the results, and provide implications for future research, as well as for the management of nonprofit arts organizations.     

The 2011 European short sale ban: A cure or a curse?

This paper examines whether the 2011 European short sale ban on financial stocks proved to be successful or had a negative impact on financial markets. We explicitly take an options market perspective and focus on market participants’ changes in beliefs and expectations. During the ban, short positions in banned stocks decreased, whereas they increased for non-banned stocks. Our results indicate that the ban increased implied jump risk levels, thereby negatively impacting the banned financial stocks. However, we also observe that after the announcement of the ban, financial contagion risk actually dropped for banned stocks. Instead of a substitution effect between regular short selling and synthetic shorting through single stock puts, we observe a migration out of single stock puts into the EuroStoxx 50 index options market. We conclude that this type of migration diversified selling pressure initially concentrated in financial stocks across a larger share of the stock market, thereby reducing systemic risks and enhancing overall financial stability.     

期货的经济属性与经济功能——基于现代金融理论的视角

传统期货经济功能理论是基于贸易视角创立并发展起来的,随着现代金融体系的建立和期货市场的快速发展,这一基础理论已严重滞后于期货市场的发展,逐渐成为制约期货市场发展和期货市场服务实体经济的瓶颈。本文从现代金融理论和金融服务实体经济的视角,对期货的定义、经济属性和经济功能三个方面进行了创新。首先从有价证券、现金流量的角度提出了期货的全新定义,其次是通过对这一新定义进行分析,揭示了期货的金融工具、衍生品、流通手段的经济属性,并在此基础上提出了将传统期货理论中的价格发现功能改进为定价功能,将规避风险功能改进为风险管理功能,除上述两大基本功能外,期货市场还具有资源配置、融资、信息反映、财富创造以及投资五个方面的经济功能。     

Option Pricing under the Double Exponential Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rate

This paper proposes an efficient option pricing model that incorporates stochastic interest rate (SIR), stochastic volatility (SV), and double exponential jump into the jump-diffusion settings. The model comprehensively considers the leptokurtosis and heteroscedasticity of the underlying asset’s returns, rare events, and an SIR. Using the model, we deduce the pricing characteristic function and pricing formula of a European option. Then, we develop the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with latent variable to solve the problem of parameter estimation under the double exponential jump-diffusion model with SIR and SV. For verification purposes, we conduct time efficiency analysis, goodness of fit analysis, and jump/drift term analysis of the proposed model. In addition, we compare the pricing accuracy of the proposed model with those of the Black–Scholes and the Kou (2002) models. The empirical results show that the proposed option pricing model has high time efficiency, and the goodness of fit and pricing accuracy are significantly higher than those of the other two models.     

Estimated burden of cardiovascular disease and value-based price range for evolocumab in a high-risk,secondary-prevention population in the US payer context

Aim: To estimate real-world cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and value-based price range of evolocumab for a US-context, high-risk, secondary-prevention population.

Materials and methods: Burden of CVD was assessed using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in order to capture complete CV burden including CV mortality. Patients on standard of care (SOC; high-intensity statins) in CPRD were selected based on eligibility criteria of FOURIER, a phase 3 CV outcomes trial of evolocumab, and categorized into four cohorts: high-risk prevalent atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) cohort (n?=?1448), acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (n?=?602), ischemic stroke (IS) (n?=?151), and heart failure (HF) (n?=?291) incident cohorts. The value-based price range for evolocumab was assessed using a previously published economic model. The model incorporated CPRD CV event rates and considered CV event reduction rate ratios per 1?mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from a meta-analysis of statin trials by the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration (CTTC), i.e. CTTC relationship.

Results: Multiple-event rates of composite CV events (ACS, IS, or coronary revascularization) per 100 patient-years were 12.3 for the high-risk prevalent ASCVD cohort, and 25.7, 13.3, and 23.3, respectively, for incident ACS, IS, and HF cohorts. Approximately one-half (42%) of the high-risk ASCVD patients with a new CV event during follow-up had a subsequent CV event. Combining these real-world event rates and the CTTC relationship in the economic model, the value-based price range (credible interval) under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained for evolocumab was $11,990 ($9,341–$14,833) to $16,856 ($12,903–$20,678) in ASCVD patients with baseline LDL-C levels ≥70?mg/dL and ≥100?mg/dL, respectively.

Conclusion: Real-world CVD burden is substantial. Using the observed CVD burden in CPRD and the CTTC relationship, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that, accounting for uncertainties, the expected value-based price for evolocumab is higher than its current annual cost, as long as the payer discount off list price is greater than 20%.     

Consumer response to online/offline price differentiation

This research explores the impact of channel-based price discrimination on key consumer reactions. Three experimental studies provide evidence that price differentiation with lower online prices is feasible. Results indicate the effects observed depend on the size of the price difference and differ between product categories. The studies provide evidence on the interplay of two central cognitive effects when facing channel-based price differences: (a) implicit assumptions on higher costs running a conventional store which may justify differing prices versus (b) a general negative attitude towards price discrimination. Moreover, we show actively communicating additional value provided offline fosters acceptance of price discrimination.     

The Impact of Price Level and Appeal Type in Hotel Advertising: A Pilot Study

Limited extant experimental research on advertising appeal effectiveness in the presence of price cues in a service offer provides the motivation for this study. While past research has found support for the effectiveness of both rational and emotional appeals in services marketing, this research, in the context of hotel advertising, shows that appeal type effectiveness may vary with the price level of the service. More specifically, this study finds that rational appeals are more effective than emotional appeals for low-priced hotels, but for high-priced hotels, rational and emotional appeals show no significant difference in influencing consumer evaluations of the offer.     

Exploring the potential value of improved care for secondary hyperparathyroidism with a novel calcimimetic therapy

Aims: This study explored the use of a value-based pricing approach for the new calcimimetic etelcalcetide indicated for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients receiving hemodialysis. It used the US payer perspective and applied the cost-effectiveness framework. Because etelcalcetide is an intravenous therapy that can be titrated for individual patients, and because its utilization is yet to be assessed in real world settings, a range of plausible doses were estimated for etelcalcetide to define a range of prices. These were either in relation to the existing oral calcimimetic cinacalcet or compared to no calcimimetic treatment.

Materials and methods: The value-based price of etelcalcetide was determined via a Markov model. This model combined data from the etelcalcetide trials and previously published cost-effectiveness models in SHPT, and allowed extrapolation of treatment effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, fracture, and parathyroidectomy. Several dosing scenarios were explored covering the dose ranges of 30.0–64.18?mg per day for cinacalcet and 1.07–3.11?mg per day for etelcalcetide. These included the mean dose from the etelcalcetide trials, the preliminary defined daily dose, and the expected most common dose in real world. An acceptable price range for etelcalcetide was assessed by comparing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios obtained with the willingness-to-pay threshold range of $100,000–$300,000/quality-adjusted life-years.

Results: Cost-effectiveness analysis supported value-based prices for etelcalcetide ranging from $21.15–$49.97/mg vs cinacalcet, and $13.79–$119.45/mg vs no calcimimetics.

Limitations: There is uncertainty around what the real-world dosing will be for etelcalcetide. Another important nuance is that no studies have examined etelcalcetide effects on hard outcomes and, therefore, this modeling exercise relied on an extrapolation approach.

Conclusions: This cost-effectiveness analysis, including scenarios to address uncertainties, allowed estimation of a value-based price range to aid reimbursement decisions in the US.