行业因素对综合预警模型的判别效果的影响研究--以基于主成分分析的Logit模型为例

以2010～2012年期间我国沪深A股因财务困境陷入ST的公司和按照1∶2比例配比的正常公司作为研究对象,并根据行业特点对样本进行划分。同时,选取能够反映企业盈利能力、股东获利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力、发展能力、偿债能力的30个财务指标,在主成分分析的基础上构建各年度的Logit模型,对各行业的违约概率和判别准确度分别进行分析。结果表明,不同行业的违约概率和判别准确度均存在显著差异且存在共性特征。     

提高关口电能计量装置准确度技术分析

随着电力体制的改革和电力工业的发展,发电企业用于结算电量的电能表由发电机前移至主变出口最终前移至线路出口关口电能表,就要求关口电能计量装置的准确度愈来愈高。本文针对大唐珲春发电厂220千伏系统二期关口电能计量装置误差产生的原因进行分析,发现影响关口电能表准确度的各项因素,制定解决方案逐步进行实施,消除这些不利因素对关口电能表的影响,提高关口电能计量装置准确度,希望能起到借鉴作用。     

Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?

This study provides evidence that the cost of equity capital decreases with the number of analysts who issue both cash flow and earnings forecasts (cash analysts). The evidence also shows that cash analysts reduce information asymmetry and predict long‐term earnings more accurately than analysts who issue only earnings forecasts. Taken together, these findings suggest that cash analysts provide market participants with high‐quality information and, as a result, firms benefit from cash analyst coverage in the form of a reduced cost of equity capital.     

中俄天然气合作博弈分析

中俄两国在能源领域的合作受到全球越来越多的关注，中俄能源合作有着广阔的前景，但目前还存在一些具体的问题，石油管线的修建一波三折，天然气合作仍处在初级阶段。针对两国在天然气合作过程中出现的现象和问题，本文将运用博弈论思想做出具体的分析。     

论市、县级政府在旅游行政管理中的 “位”与“为”

本文对当前市、县级政府在旅游行政管理中的“无位”与“无为”原因进行了分析，并从政府行政组织的结构、体制与实施机制角度出发，研究如何解决旅游行政部门在旅游行政管理中的“位”与“为”问题。     

中美高新技术产业全球价值链分工地位和竞争力研究

通过测算中美高新技术产业双边贸易规模及结构,探讨两国高新技术产业全球价值链分工地位与竞争力。研究结果表明：中国高新技术产业依附于全球价值链的加工和装配等低端环节,整体竞争力低于美国,但近年来有向价值链上游攀升的趋势;美国高新技术产业主导着全球价值链的研发和设计等高端环节。因此,应当继续提升自主创新能力,推进高水平对外开放,搭建国际技术交流平台,完善高新技术产业发展政策,助推中国高新技术产业实现价值链升级。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Relationships between Ethical Beliefs, Ethical Ideology, Political Preference and Need for Closure

An analysis is presented of the relationships between consumers ethical beliefs, ethical ideology, Machiavellianism, political preference and the individual difference variable "need for closure". It is based on a representative survey of 286 Belgian respondents. Standard measurement tools of proven reliability and robustness are used to measure ethical beliefs (consumer ethics scale), ethical ideology (ethical positioning), Machiavellianism (Mach IV scale) and need for closure. The analysis finds the following. First, individuals with a high need for closure tend to have beliefs that are more ethical as regards possible consumer actions, and score higher on idealism and lower on Machiavellianism, than those with a low need for closure. Second, a correlation exists between political preference and ethical beliefs. Third, a significant relationship exists between ethical ideology and political preference for the two largest political parties. Fourth, individuals with a high and low need for closure have different political preferences for right-wing and left-wing parties.     

测控通信系统射频资源可重组技术

测控通信系统的资源重组将是飞行器测控通信系统的发展方向。在中频实现测控终端重组的基础上,通过对射频重组构架的分析,得出了射频交换网络的性能和射频远距离传输的性能直接影响射频重组的可行性,提出了一种可行的全系统资源重组的测控体系构架,即采用微光电子射频交换网络与射频光波传输技术实现射频信号大规模交换及远距离传输,再结合中频重组以实现全系统资源重组,并对相关性能进行了分析。所提出的设计思路可供测控通信系统实现全体系的资源重组借鉴及参考。     

非对称合作网络中网络位置与创新绩效的关系——以吉利汽车为例的案例研究

利用扎根理论方法,以吉利汽车为例,对吉利汽车通过全球研发、跨国联盟、内部修炼等在创新合作网络发展的不同时期所占据的不同网络位置与创新绩效的关系进行了研究,并分析了企业家精神在两者间的中介作用。结果表明:占据网络中介和富含结构洞的网络位置能使企业获得更高的创新绩效;在两种不同的网络位置——中心位置和中介位置与创新绩效的关系中,企业家精神均起中介作用。     

Foreign Direct Investment and the External Wealth of Nations: How Important Is Valuation?

While the balance sheet approach has increased the focus on position data, differences in valuation practices for foreign direct investment (FDI) make cross‐country comparisons difficult. To enhance comparability, the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition, which some countries have already implemented and others will implement in the coming years, recommends seven methods for valuation of unlisted FDI. This paper demonstrates that both the valuation method and simple differences in estimation techniques can fundamentally change a country's financial balance sheet. Using Denmark as an illustration, unlisted FDI equity liabilities vary from 22 to 156 percent of GDP when applying different estimation techniques, but just one valuation method, price to earnings. These measurement uncertainties can lead to important misunderstandings and affect policy recommendations, thus pointing to the need for further international harmonization. While the results are presented in an FDI context, the uncertainties also apply to other macroeconomic datasets, including national accounts statistics.