Evolution of Urban–rural Living Standards Inequality in Thailand: 1990–2006

The present study examines the developments in urban–rural living standard inequality in Thailand from 1990 to 2006 using a methodology that allows for the identification of individual contributors to changes in inequality. We also propose a method to analyze the changes over time in urban–rural living standards. We find that the urban–rural gap in living standards in Thailand has narrowed substantially since the early 1990s, both at the mean and especially for households in the upper part of the expenditure distribution; however, the narrowing of the gap at the bottom of the expenditure distribution has been negligible. The study also identifies the main individual contributors to changes over time in living standards between urban and rural areas in Thailand.     

Semiparametric quantile regression estimation in dynamic models with partially varying coefficients

We study quantile regression estimation for dynamic models with partially varying coefficients so that the values of some coefficients may be functions of informative covariates. Estimation of both parametric and nonparametric functional coefficients are proposed. In particular, we propose a three stage semiparametric procedure. Both consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are derived. We demonstrate that the parametric estimators are root-n$n$ consistent and the estimation of the functional coefficients is oracle. In addition, efficiency of parameter estimation is discussed and a simple efficient estimator is proposed. A simple and easily implemented test for the hypothesis of a varying-coefficient is proposed. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators.     

农户农地流转意愿影响因素的探讨——基于成都市实地调查及主成分改进Logistic回归分析

分析表明,影响农地流转意愿最大的三个因子依次为:非农工作所在地,非农工作人数比例以及农业人均年经营收入。结合成都统筹城乡改革的经验,本文建议采用规划民营工业园区、提高农业经营收入等方式,来促进农地的流转和整合,提高农民可支配收入,实现资源和收入的有效配置。     

Comparisons of linear regression and survival analysis using single and mixture distributions approaches in modelling LGD

Estimating the recovery rate and recovery amount has become important in consumer credit due to the new Basel Accord regulation and the increase in the number of defaulters as a result of the recession. We compare linear regression and survival analysis models for modelling recovery rates and recovery amounts, in order to predict the loss given default (LGD) for unsecured consumer loans or credit cards. We also look at the advantages and disadvantages of using single and mixture distribution models for estimating these quantities.     

Estimation of Public–Private Wage Differentials in Turkey with Sample Correction

The aim of this study is to determine how the change in the balance between public–private sector employments affected public and private earnings during the 1990s and 2000s in Turkey. We use the Oaxaca–Blinder and quantile decomposition methods to determine the wage gap between public and private sectors utilizing the 1994 Household Income Distribution and Consumption Expenditure Survey and the 2008 Household Budget Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute. The study determined that the primary difference in the average wages between sectors arises from the differences in the endowments without correction for gender. After adjusting for correction using quantile regression, we find that the difference in the endowments between sectors at lower quantiles explains the majority of the raw wage gap; whereas a substantial amount of the raw wage gap is explained by the sector effect at higher quantiles.     

老年商业医疗保险影响因素的实证研究

研究探讨中国老年商业医疗保险消费的影响因素,以2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪抽样调查数据为依托,运用Logistic回归方法进行实证分析。研究发现,女性购买商业医疗保险的可能性是男性的0.64倍,受教育程度为私塾的老年人购买的可能性是没读过书老年人的2.07倍,有偶分居和离婚群体购买商业医疗的可能性远远高于有偶同住人群,非农户口群体购买的可能性是农业户口人群的0.47倍,老年人自理困难指数每提高一个单位,购买商业医疗保险的可能性降低16%。总的来说,人口学特征和老年人健康水平对老年商业医疗保险的消费存在显著影响,男性、受教育程度高、婚姻状态不稳定、农村户籍、健康水平较好的老年人更可能拥有老年商业医疗保险。     

An examination of US hotel firms' risk features and their determinants of systematic risk

This study examined risk features of hotel firms and the determinants of their systematic risk. After reviewing the financial data for 31 US hotel firms from 2004 through 2008, we found that 86% of the hotel firms' total risk could be characterized as unsystematic risk. The results showed that while debt leverage and growth are positively related to systematic risk, firm size is negatively associated with such risk. Our findings suggest that conservative growth via mergers and acquisitions, and less reliance on debt financing is advisable for hotel firms seeking to reduce systematic risk and enhance firm value. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comparative Study of the Use of Generalized Additive Models and Generalized Linear Models in Tourism Research

In this paper, we investigate the impact that spatial and micro‐economic variables have on the probability that a household goes on holiday. In doing so, we propose two alternative modelling specifications: a classic discrete choice model and a semiparametric logistic model. The semiparametric model extends the classic logistic model, usually employed in studies on participation in tourism, allowing modelling in a flexible manner for continuous predictors without making any a priori assumption. This is achieved via the use of penalized regression splines. A sample of Italian households was considered for our study. Comparing the results of the two approaches, we found that both methods opportunely captured, in terms of signs, the relationships under investigation. However, the use of a more flexible approach has allowed us to uncover some interesting non‐linearities that are usually not assumed a priori, thus improving the interpretation of the results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple two-component model for the distribution of intraday returns

We model the conditional distribution of high-frequency financial returns by means of a two-component quantile regression model. Using three years of 30 minute returns, we show that the conditional distribution depends on past returns and on the time of the day. Two practical applications illustrate the usefulness of the model. First, we provide quantile-based measures of conditional volatility, asymmetry and kurtosis that do not depend on the existence of moments. We find seasonal patterns and time dependencies beyond volatility. Second, we estimate and forecast intraday Value at Risk. The two-component model is able to provide good-risk assessments and to outperform GARCH-based Value at Risk evaluations.     

Measurement of risk perceptions in social research: a comparative analysis of ordinary least squares,ordinal and multinomial logistic regression models

Drawing on data gathered in the 2006 Monitoring the Future study of American youth (n = 2489), this investigation offers a comparative analysis of ordinary least squares (OLS), ordinal and multinomial logistic regression models in examining the effects of multiple factors on perceptions of alcohol risk. The article addresses limitations of OLS models in risk analyses and demonstrates how scholars can avoid making statistical errors when positioning vague quantifiers as ordinal dependent measures. Substantively, the article finds differential effects for (1) sex, (2) perceived attitudes of peers toward alcohol consumption, (3) frequency of intoxication, (4) teacher efforts toward alcohol education, (5) frequency of communicating with friends, and (6) newspaper exposure, as determinants of alcohol risk perceptions. Through statistical results and visual displays, the article reveals how inferences made about these effects stand to vary depending on the regression method chosen.