盈利水平、支农服务与风险控制——农商行规模调整的理论分析与实证检验

目前,银行化改制成为农村信用社新一轮改革的主要方向,但改制过程中如何调整经营规模引起了较大争议。在此背景下,本文基于拓展的商业银行最优规模选择模型,深入探讨了农商行在不同目标下规模调整的内在机理,并利用2009-2016年102家农商行的非平衡面板数据和动态面板模型进行了实证检验。结果发现:农商行能够通过规模调整实现盈利水平最大化和经营风险最小化,因此保持适度规模更有利于盈利水平的提升和经营风险的降低;当前农商行规模扩张会导致支农贷款占比减少、支农力度减弱和支农目标偏移,但农商行资产规模与支农服务间存在阈值效应,资产规模超过一定阈值后,支农贷款占比会再次提升;三重目标约束下的测算结果表明,基于当前经营管理水平下,农商行不适合过度扩张规模。     

Expectations,Strategies and Prospects of Farmers in View of Croatia’s Pending EU Accession

In Croatia, farmers prepare themselves for the impending EU accession and consider their future economic opportunities in and outside agriculture. This study on farmer's strategies reviews empirical evidence of a unique household survey conducted in early 2007 in Croatia. The main objective of this paper is to present new insights on the transition dynamics in one of the EU candidate states with good prospects to accede within the coming years. Based on empirical data we present a multinomial regression model on drivers of farm household’s livelihood strategies. Farm exit, farm expansion and the combination of farm and non-farm incomes are the main strategies which are tested against socio-economic variables with a potential influence on them.     

解决我国农业保险缴费瓶颈的一种尝试：现代易货交易

当前,我国农户相对不足的农业保费缴纳能力与缴纳意愿是制约农业保险进一步发展的瓶颈。政府有限的财政补贴与农业风险管理技术手段的改进措施均无法从根本上突破这一困境。为此,本文在对农户农业保险消费行为进行重新诠释的基础上,借鉴现代易货交易的实践与经验．提出了一个新的解决思路,即将现代易货交易与农户农业保险的投保行为有机融合在一起,并对这一解决途径的可行性进行了深入分析,进而提出了相应的具有现实操作性的措施建议。     

福建九龙江上游农业资源开发思路与对策

深入调查龙岩市新罗区农业资源情况,根据现代农业建设要求,系统分析龙岩市新罗区农业资源合理开发的条件和走势,围绕养猪业、果蔬(含花生)、竹业等优势农业产业的现代化科学化,提出可操作的发展模式和有效措施.     

农村土地承包经营权入股疑难问题刍议

为充分利用农村土地,为农民争取最大收益,目前,我国部分地区实行了农村土地承包经营权入股设立企业的方式,以此加大土地利用率,实现最大收益。但是由于我国未出台其他相关配套法律、法规,因此,此种改革必然会引起诸多法律冲突。而通过设立《农业公司法》或者进行彻底的“第三次土地革命”则可以有效地解决这些法律冲突。尤其是进行彻底的土地改革,更可以根治我国由国家、集体二元土地所有权结构所引起的一切问题,应被立法者重视。     

The role of rural producer organizations for agricultural service provision in fragile states

This article assesses the extent of external linkages and the provision of agricultural services by rural producer organizations in a post‐conflict setting. Using new survey data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute in three provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, this study finds that various internal and external factors affect the capacity of organizations to interact with external organizations. External linkages, ability to collect financial support from their members, management capacity, and formal governance structures all contribute to explaining relative performance in agricultural service delivery. We also find that exogenous events affect the relative performance of rural producer organizations. Our results suggest that closeness to conflict reduces the capacity of producer organizations to provide agricultural services.     

基于DEA的家庭农场生态经济效率评价——以公安县长江村为例

农户是农业生产的基本单元,开展农户的农业生态经济效率评价是控制农业面源污染、实现农业科学经营的关键。通过构建农业生态经济效率的评价指标体系,运用数据包络分析的方法对红安县长江村的农户生态经济效率进行分析评价。得出长江村农户的农业生态经济规模效率较高、纯技术效率较低,生态经济效率达到最优的农户相对较少。应加强农业的技术支持,提高农业的科学管理。     

论西北干旱区农业的发展问题

本文以河西走廊,新疆等为例,分析西北干旱区农业发展的潜力与可持续发展问题,认为：干旱区是中国未来农业的希望,干旱区节水农业具有巨大潜力,用生态系统观点促进干旱区农业持续发展。     

发展无污染安全农产品的前景和对策

本文分析了我国安全农产品发展与发达国家安全农产品发展的差距,剖析了国内外农产品质量管理的典范,提出了我国发展安全农产品的六项对策建议。     

Stochastic Technical Change and Procyclical TFP The Case of Italian Agriculture

The paper questionsthe use of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures as a proxyfor the technological level in Italian agriculture. TFP growthreveals a cyclical behaviour and a short-run component due toshocks on both the demand and supply sides. In order to identifyreal long-run technological change, a Kalman filter procedureis applied to a stochastic process depicting the generation oftechnical change induced by R&D and Extension expenditure.The empirical evidence reveals that short-term shocks greatlyaffect the traditional measure of productivity. A better indicatorof technological progress can be obtained by estimating the long-runcomponent of productivity, which seems to be significantly inducedby R&D-Extension public expenditure.