Meta‐Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys

Abstract.  Pedagogically, literature reviews are instrumental. They summarize the large literature written on a particular topic, give coherence to the complex, often disparate, views expressed about an issue, and serve as a springboard for new ideas. However, literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus. Ironically, this is just as true for the empirical economic literature. To harmonize this dissonance, we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature. Meta‐regression analysis (MRA) is the regression analysis of regression analyses. MRA tends to objectify the review process. It studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon. MRA provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification. In this brief essay, we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature, MRA, and discuss its potential.     

经济增长与贷款增长因果关系的实证分析——基于湖北的数据

文中对湖北人民币贷款增长和经济增长的关系进行线性回归,以检验金融发展理论的核心指标之一贷款和经济增长相互促进的因果关系的结论是否适用于湖北,得出自改革开放以来,湖北的贷款和GDP存在着相互作用的因果关系,贷款在湖北国民经济增长中起着重要的推动作用。     

A DISPLACED POISSON PROCESS APPLIED TO SCREENING FOR BREAST CANCER EN STRATIFIED SAMPLES WITH FALSE NEGATIVES*

A displaced Poisson process model allowing for stratified populations and “false negatives” is presented for describing the progress of certain chronic diseases. This model, which builds on earlier work by the authors, allows for the simple estimation of various parameters and distributions of interest in screening. A Monte Carlo simulation study illustrating and partially verifying the model predictions is given.     

FDI技术外溢的地区差异与吸收能力的门限特征——基于中国省际面板数据的门限回归分析

本文利用中国省际面板数据模型对FDI流入在不同地区所引发的技术外溢效应进行了检验。检验结果验证了FDI技术外溢效应在我国不同地区之间具有相当的差异性。在此基础上,本文采用"门限回归"方法构造非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验了影响FDI技术外溢效应的若干吸收能力因素以及FDI技术外溢影响的门限特征,并从经济发展水平、对外开放度、基础设施和人力资本状况以及地区经济结构等方面测定了引发积极技术外溢效应的门限水平。     

一种增强型指数追踪模型设计及应用

研究目标：构建了可以调节追踪误差和超额收益的增强型指数追踪模型,并给出了广义最小角度回归算法（GLARS）,用以计算调节参数作用下模型解的折中路径。研究方法：通过模拟数据和五组世界主要股票市场指数的历史数据,对本文提出的模型和算法与同类模型和算法进行了性能比较;同时追踪上证50指数构建若干稀疏且稳定的资产组合模型,通过信息比率等指标对投资组合进行评价。研究发现：本文构建的模型可用以构造权衡追踪效果和超额收益,且稀疏的资产组合,GLARS算法相对传统预设参数的算法具有良好的求解能力和计算速度。研究创新：引入调节参数平衡追踪效果和超额收益,并针对中国股票市场的特点,在增强型指数追踪模型施加非负约束;GLARS算法可遍历所有折中意义下的最优解。研究价值：本文提出的增强型指数追踪模型在国内具有较强适用性,在保证资产稀疏性的前提下可以得到超额收益,同时丰富了目前投资组合中的方法论研究。     

零膨胀损失次数的贝叶斯分位回归模型

研究目标：建立零膨胀损失次数的贝叶斯分位回归模型。研究方法：通过增加随机扰动将离散型的损失次数数据转化为连续型数据,在预测误差平方和最小的条件下,求解出分位数水平,并应用贝叶斯方法求解分位回归模型中的参数。研究发现：基于得到的分位回归模型及相应的分位数水平,实现对未来的损失频率的预测。研究创新：借助等式关系,求解分位回归的分位数水平,避免主观选择分位数水平的弊端,实现对零膨胀损失次数贝叶斯分位回归建模。研究价值：基于一组实际数据的实证分析结果表明,该模型可以显著改进现有模型的拟合效果。     

创业动机、创业胜任力对创业绩效影响的实证研究——基于上海市大学生创业者348份调研数据

文章通过对上海市不同学历的大学生创业者进行调研,整理出348份调研数据并建立多元线性回归模型,考察了不同行业的创业者的创业动机对创业绩效的影响,并以创业胜任力为中介变量探讨创业动机对创业绩效的影响效果。结果显示,创业动机对创业绩效有显著正向影响,创业胜任力有助于提高生存动机对创业绩效的正向影响,并可提高机会动机对创业绩效的正向影响。因此,创业者应注重创业生存动机意识,提高创业者的创业综合能力,使之转化为创业实践,提升创业成功率。     

浅谈事故树在铁路调车脱轨事故分析中的应用

为降低铁路调车脱轨事故的发生概率,通过搜集汇总常见的调车脱轨事故案例,归类分析查找事故致因。采用事故树分析法,对调车脱轨的影响因素进行结构建模。利用布尔代数原理对事故树结构函数式进行化简,求出事故树的最小割集和最小径集,对影响因素进行结构重要度分析,得出影响调车脱轨事故的关键因素。最后,结合最小割集和最小径集的组成事件及其关联程度,分析制定预防调车脱轨事故的主要措施,即吸取典型事故教训、强化设备"用、管、修"制度执行、严格执行调车作业标准、做好调车脱轨事故应急处置,为铁路调车安全管理和决策提供参考依据。     

Corruption and legislature size: Evidence from Brazil

This paper studies whether and how legislatures affect political corruption. Using a regression discontinuity design in the context of Brazilian municipalities, we find a positive causal impact of council size on corruption levels, as detected by random federal audits. This indicates that an extra councilor represents an additional political actor potentially interested in diverting public resources, which we define as a rent extraction effect. However, we find further evidence that, in some contexts, larger councils enhance the representation of opposition parties and effectively increase monitoring over the executive, attenuating the rent extraction effect. Namely, in municipalities where opposition parties are typically underrepresented, the additional seat in the council is absorbed by the opposition and corruption outcomes do not worsen. In addition, only in such context, mayors are more commonly sentenced for misconduct in office by judicial authorities, whose investigations anecdotally often originates from councilors denouncing mayors to local courts. Overall, our findings show that legislature size is detrimental to corruption outcomes but less so where the representation of opposition parties improves with the enlargement of the legislature.     

武汉市城市化进程中的环境效应分析

本文根据武汉市1989～2008年相关数据,选取非农人口比重(即城市化率)作为城市化指标;废水排放量、废气排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量等作为环境污染指标,运用回归模型对城市化率和环境污染指标分别进行耦合分析并建模,探究城市化进程对城市环境的影响,并基于研究结果分析,提出了促进武汉市城市经济与环境协调发展的对策建议.