Firm level return-volatility analysis using dynamic panels

This paper examines “leverage” and volatility feedback effects at the firm level by considering both market and firm level effects, using 242 individual firm stock data in the US market. We adopt a panel vector autoregressive framework which allows us to control simultaneously for common business cycle effects, unobserved cross correlation effects in return and volatility via industry effects, and heterogeneity across firms. Our results suggest that volatility feedback effects at the firm level are present due to both market and firm effects, though the market volatility feedback effect is stronger than the corresponding firm level effect. We also find that the leverage effect at the firm level is persistent, significant and negative, while the effect of market return on firm volatility is persistent, significant and positive. The presence of these effects is further explored through the responses of the model's variables to market-wide return and volatility shocks.     

创新业务流程打击金融诈骗

针对目前电信金融诈骗犯罪往往采用通过银行转账,ATM分散取款的作案手段,提出了在银行业务流程上增加主、副账户和在转账交易中引入T+1限制的办法堵住销赃渠道,可以有效遏制此类犯罪案件的滋生。在此基础上,提出捕捉和监控疑似犯罪的交易信息,建立金融数据溯源平台,从而在技术上为报案侦查和追回损失提供了支撑条件,震慑金融诈骗犯罪的企图。最后讨论了基于数据抽取平台的金融数据溯源系统的技术架构。     

Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change? Insights from the Nile basin in Ethiopia

This study investigates the impact of different soil and water conservation (SWC) technologies on the variance of crop production in Ethiopia to determine the risk implications of the different technologies in different regions and rainfall zones. Given the production risks posed by climate change, such information can be used by decision makers to identify appropriate agricultural practices that act as a buffer against climate change. Results show that SWC investments perform differently in different rainfall areas and regions of Ethiopia and that the effectiveness of technologies such as irrigation, fertilizer, and improved seeds often depends on whether these investments are coupled with SWC measures. These results underscore the importance of the selection of appropriate combinations of technologies and careful geographical targeting when promoting and scaling up SWC technologies for adaptation to climate change.     

基于参数优化的物流需求灰预测研究

在当前大力发展物流业的同时,需要做好物流需求预测,从而为各地科学合理地制定物流发展规划,实现物流系统供需平衡提供重要决策依据。物流系统是典型的灰色系统,文章利用江苏省物流货物周转量历史数据建立新陈代谢GM（1,1）模型群,并对模型参数进行优化,通过对模型群中不同维度的各个模型进行比较,选取其中精度较高的模型对货物周转量进行预测。结果表明模拟与预测效果均很好,模型有较高的应用价值。     

Market‐Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations and Their Evolution Since the Introduction of the Euro

The paper considers the relation between monetary policy expectations and financial markets in the case of Europe. A number of money market instruments are compared, with the result that the 1‐month forward interest rates extracted from the Libor yield curve has the best prediction power of the future monetary policy path. These forward rates have been used to study the evolution of market expectations regarding the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). The sharp increases and the following decreases in interest rates during 2000–2001 have reduced the predictive power of money market instruments, but smoother management of interest rates and better communication from the ECB has helped to improve the forecasting power of money market instruments.     

A Rationale for the Coexistence of Central and Decentral Marketing in Team Sports

Abstract. In some sports leagues, the sports association sells broadcasting rights centrally in order to create competitive balance. In other ones, the market is decentral. As a result, there is competitive imbalance. In this paper, the preferred kind of marketing of sports associations is analysed. Distinctions are made between three cases. In case one, the sports association is only interested in competitive balance. In the second case, it wishes to create a single high-performing team, and in the third, it maximizes aggregate performance. It is found that, depending on the preferences of the association, both kinds of marketing can be optimal.     

Endogenous financial intermediation and real effects of capital account liberalization

We consider lending and investment under asymmetric information in a small, developing economy. We allow different forms of financial contracts to arise endogenously. Financial intermediaries mitigate a moral hazard problem in investment choice through costly monitoring. We then examine the impact of opening the capital account on both welfare and the structure of lending contracts. Liberalizing the capital account may improve or worsen the efficiency of financial intermediaries, leading to an improvement or worsening of the aggregate composition of investment projects. We show that efficient financial intermediaries in the closed economy are neither necessary nor sufficient for a capital account liberalization to improve welfare.     

The intersubsidiary competition in an MNE: evidence from the Greater China region

We examine subsidiary survival from an intersubsidiary competition perspective. Drawing from 87 Taiwanese subsidiaries of MNEs we examine the influences of strategic importance of a subsidiary, resource asymmetry, and characteristics of value activities on the survival rate of a subsidiary. Results show that these factors have differential effects on the survival rates of a firm's foreign subsidiaries. Specifically, strategic importance and gains in intangible resources enhance a subsidiary's survival rate, whereas local responsiveness, gains in physical resources, and similarity and mobility of value‐added activities decrease its survival rate. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water Trade in the Southern Murray–Darling Basin

In this paper, we use TERM-Water, a bottoms-up regional computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy, to examine the regional effects of expanding trade of irrigation water in the southern Murray–Darling basin. We find that water trading dampens the impact of water allocation cuts on gross regional product (GRP). The benefits of introducing trading within irrigation districts are greater than those of a further expansion of trade between regions. Permitting trade of seasonal allocations allows irrigators to reallocate water in reaction to climatic conditions and water availability; and it is this flexibility that enables GRP reductions to be minimised.