Introducción. Trabajo,empleo y sociedad: ¿Qué esperar del futuro?

En la presente introducción se destacan los principales aspectos extraídos de los artículos de este número especial que cabría considerar en las investigaciones sobre el futuro del trabajo. Se presentan los cambios acelerados que afectan al mundo del trabajo como una oportunidad de orientarse hacia un crecimiento proclive a la igualdad, pero también se advierte de los peligros que plantea una mala gestión del cambio tecnológico, de las desigualdades –haciendo hincapié en el carácter persistente y transversal de la desigualdad de género–, de las cadenas mundiales de suministro y de las oportunidades de diálogo social. En vista de ello, se proponen también recomendaciones de política en las que se presta especial atención al fortalecimiento de la protección de los trabajadores y de las instituciones representativas, el replanteamiento de los marcos normativos y de los sistemas fiscales, y el logro de transiciones justas.     

Fiscal Decentralization or Centralization: Diverging Paths of Chinese Cities

If fiscal decentralization promotes growth, why do some regions decentralize more than others? This article identifies the growing divergence of fiscal centralization among Chinese cities and explains it in a public finance framework. It argues that fiscal decentralization and its economy‐liberalizing effect entail significant short‐term fiscal risk. The more a locality relies on uncompetitive business ownership for fiscal revenue, the less likely fiscal decentralization is to occur. This article compiles a dataset of 20 provincial capitals between 1999 and 2016 to test for the connection between a city's tax base and its fiscal centralization level. It then pairs two “most similar” cities to trace how fiscal security concerns drove their fiscal and economic policies apart. This article adds a micro‐level perspective to the literature on fiscal federalism. By pointing out the fiscal constraints confronting local governments, it offers a new angle to understand the different growth paths of Chinese cities.     

Electoral Thresholds as Coordination Devices

In this paper, we study one‐person–one‐vote parliamentary elections where voters care both about the winner of elections and about the composition of the parliament. Parties enter the parliament if and only if their vote share exceeds some predetermined threshold. We show that equilibria generically exist in which all parties obtain a non‐degenerate vote‐share and, perhaps more importantly, we show that the size of the electoral threshold acts as a coordination device, which crucially affects the win prospects of the Condorcet winner party. In particular, we argue that the win prospects of the Condorcet winner party decrease with the size of the entry threshold.     

Personality and cognitive skills in network of friends,for multi-ethnic schools

In a multi-ethnic society, friendship among children might be expected to be overwhelmingly shaped by ethnicity and cultural heritage. Using an original panel data-set of classmate networks in multi-ethnic primary schools near Florence, Italy, ($N=396$ children in 2nd and 5th grade), we show instead that cognitive skills and personality traits matter as much as ethnicity in shaping friendships, thus playing the role of elective affinities. We test whether friends affect a child’s personality more than the other way round: to do this, we estimate peer effects. We only find non-significant effect of peers on math grades and a measure of intelligence (KBIT). For personality traits, peer effects are significant only for Extraversion. These findings are crucial for design of immigration policies: rather than emphasizing differences among ethnic groups, a farsighted policy could try to point these elective affinities among individuals.     

The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE

This paper examines how shocks to government bond duration risk held by price-sensitive investors affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. We construct a new measure of the bond “free float,” which adjusts total debt for foreign official holdings and weights by residual maturity. Using a small macrofinance Bayesian Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate that the first round of asset purchases under the European Central Bank's (ECB) public sector purchase program reduced euro area 10-year bond yields by around 30 bps in 2015. The positive impact on the output gap and inflation in 2016 was about 0.2 and 0.3 ppt, respectively.     

Globalization,Tax Distortions,and Public‐Sector Retrenchment*

It is widely perceived that globalization inevitably leads to a retrenchment of tax‐financed public‐sector activities. The argument is that tax distortions increase when production is more easily relocated across countries (the elasticity argument). We question this perception in a model that captures standard mechanisms from trade and open‐economy models. Importantly, the retrenchment argument overlooks the fact that the basic effect of integration (i.e., gains from trade) tends to lower the marginal costs of public funds. Moreover, the elasticity argument is not unambiguously supported, and there is no race to the bottom as a result of the perceived terms‐of‐trade effects of non‐cooperative fiscal policies.     

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for 2009 H1N1 influenza on travel intentions: A model of goal-directed behavior

Theoretically, in the tourism context this study introduced a new concept of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) for influenza, and tested the impact of NPI on the behavioral intention of potential international tourists. This study also extended the model of goal-directed behavior (MGB) by incorporating the new concepts of NPI, and the perception of 2009 H1N1. The model found that desire, perceived behavioral control, frequency of past behavior, and non-pharmaceutical interventions predicted tourists’ intention but perceptions of 2009 H1N1 had nil effect on desire and intention. Personal non-pharmaceutical interventions were theorized as adaptive behavior of tourists intending to travel during a pandemic which should be supported by tourism operators on a system-wide basis. Practically, this study dealt with the issue of influenza 2009 H1N1 with the study findings and implications providing government agencies, tourism marketers, policy-makers, transport systems, and hospitality services with important suggestions for NPI and international tourism during pandemics.     

Portfolio performance manipulation in collateralized loan obligations

We examine the discretionary activities that CLO managers engage in to pass monthly overcollateralization (OC) tests. These tests require a CLO's loan portfolio value, scaled by the CLO notes’ principal balance, to be above a certain threshold. Using CLOs’ granular disclosures, we develop model-free estimates for discretionary loan fair valuation and transaction-based proxies for strategic loan trading. We find a positive association between these discretionary activities and the probability of avoiding an OC test violation. This association varies predictably with junior noteholders’ influence and CLO market conditions. Strategic trading—but not discretionary fair valuation—relates to worse future CLO performance.     

Animal health inputs,endogenous risk,general infrastructure,technology adoption and industrialized animal agriculture

This paper develops a microeconomic model of concentrated animal feeding operations that admits roles for all of animal health inputs, genetic profile choices and the pertaining economic infrastructure. The basic model emphasizes how time on feed, feed density and biosecurity choices interact, as well as how these choices respond to (i) input prices, and (ii) attributes regarding animal productivity parameters that might be influenced by policy choices such as animal welfare strictures and restraints on use of medication. We show that ostensibly substituting inputs in protecting against animal health risks may in fact be complements, and that the model’s production choices come as a complementary package. We then extend the model to endogenize the choice of animal genetics. A finding is that innovations in general infrastructure encourage herd owners to choose more feed efficient, but less hardy, animals. Higher feed conversion efficiency then induces the use of denser feed rations, accelerated finishing and greater levels of biosecurity actions at farm perimeters. Our theory provides a coherent framework for explaining associations among inputs and outcomes that are linked with confined animal agriculture. It also explains how animal protein supply chain technology adoption and performance can differ according to a region’s state of infrastructure, why responses to a change in infrastructure may be large, and why public sector efforts to reduce production risk may beget private sector effort to do so.