Semiparametric tests of conditional moment restrictions under weak or partial identification

We propose two new semiparametric specification tests which test whether a vector of conditional moment conditions is satisfied for any vector of parameter values θ₀. Unlike most existing tests, our tests are asymptotically valid under weak and/or partial identification and can accommodate discontinuities in the conditional moment functions. Our tests are moreover consistent provided that identification is not too weak. We do not require the availability of a consistent first step estimator. Like Robinson [Robinson, Peter M., 1987. Asymptotically efficient estimation in the presence of heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Econometrica 55, 875–891] and many others in similar problems subsequently, we use k-nearest neighbor (knn) weights instead of kernel weights. The advantage of using knn weights is that local power is invariant to transformations of the instruments and that under strong point identification computation of the test statistic yields an efficient estimator of θ₀ as a byproduct.     

基于BP神经网络的民用汽车运力灰色回归组合预测研究

文章根据组合预测的理论和BP神经网络对非线性数据良好的逼近特性。提出了基于BP神经网络的灰色预测、多项式回归模型的民用汽车运力组合预测模型。此模型综合了各单一模型的有效信息．能够比较客观地反映地区民用汽车运力的发展趋势．为相关部门提供决策依据。     

特殊区域间的货物调拨和集中报关实践研究

文章通过对"5+1区间"调拨和"转关调拨"的对比分析,指出"5+1区间"调拨与"转关调拨"相比在运用中的优点及有待改善之处,并为特殊区域间的货物调拨和集中报关提供借鉴。     

对“三合一”场所消防安全现状的思考

文章透彻分析了“三合一”场所的成因和现状,以及在整治“三合一”场所消防安全隐患工作中遇到的难题,提出了整治“三合一”场所消防安全隐患的措施和办法,对整治“三合一”场所消防安全隐患工作有着积极的指导作用。     

“北斗”三号B1C信号的硬件实时生成

从节省资源、提高实时性以及简化实现复杂度的角度出发,对“北斗”三号B1C信号进行硬件实时生成。首先,介绍了B1C生成相关理论并将B1C信号生成拆分成子模块进行研究和生成;其次,采用统一的系统时钟和精密的相位控制保证了B1C信号数据分量与导频分量及分量内部之间的严格对齐;最后,针对导频分量虚部,给出了一种硬件上可消除虚数运算的生成方式,解决了硬件上虚数信号难以生成这一难题,最终实时生成B1C信号。生成结果表明,理论仿真与硬件生成结果相吻合,验证了该B1C信号硬件生成方式的正确性,且该生成方式简单、灵活,占用资源少,易于工程实现。 B1C信号的实时生成不仅可为接收终端基带信号处理提供模块设计参考,同时也可为信号接收处理提供测试用信号。     

Banking solvency determinants in the EU: a model based on stress tests

Using a multilevel regression model, this article aims to find determinants of banking solvency in the European Union. The endogenous variable is defined as the capital ratio determined by stress tests. Both internal (financial ratios and sovereign debt exposures) and external (macroeconomic indicators) variables are proposed as covariates. The results reveal that capitalization, earnings, assets structure and exposure to PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) sovereign debt are significant among the former, and economic growth, interest and exchange rates, and real estate prices among the latter.     

The Future of East Asia’s Trade: A Call for Better Globalization

This paper is about how East Asia should respond to the challenges of the external environment. The first challenge is the current slowdown in trade, which has been due to cyclical and structural factors such as the decline in productivity and the maturation of global value chains. The rise in protectionism as measured by rising trade restrictiveness has not impacted on trade, but political and policy uncertainty regarding the direction of trade policy seems to have begun to impact on trade growth. The policy stance of increased protectionism and a retreat from the multilateral rules‐based trading system is linked to the pockets of the population who have not seen their incomes improve and who have blamed their plight and increased inequality on globalization. In fact, the issue is more about the lack of effective responses to manage the costs of trade liberalization. East Asian economies need to respond to these challenges by upholding the multilateral rules‐based trading system, continuing the various pathways to regional economic integration, and ensuring better globalization through effective capacity building and policies to address the negative effects of trade liberalization.     

Sovereign wealth fund governance and national culture

As sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are owned and directed by sovereign governments which often have non-economic strategic motives and concomitant lack of transparency, there is much confusion, suspicion, and concern regarding the purpose of their investments. Strategic or non-economic motives for SWF investments are usually conveyed via respective governing boards of directors. Therefore, there is much need for understanding SWF governance. Using data for 49 large SWFs globally, we document significant and economically important evidence of the impact of national culture on SWF governance. Even when controlling for the quality of respective national governance, we find that poorer SWF governance is associated with the cultural dimensions of power distance, individualism, and most likely masculinity; while better SWF governance is associated with long-term orientation, indulgence and uncertainty avoidance. These results are consistent with what others have noted: good governance means different institutional dynamics in different countries (cultures). We also find that SWF governance is negatively associated with greater investment in foreign assets. Policy makers, capital-market participants, and managers will be interested in these results, as SWFs have become large and important global investors.     

Business Survival and the Decision to Exit

The decision to exit is examined for a cohort of over 12,000 plants established in 1976. Using a longitudinal data base, the performance of the establishments is analysed over the subsequent 10 years. The empirical evidence suggests that start-up size, ownership status, and the industry environment affect the likelihood of a start -up subsequently exiting. Plants with more employees during the start -up year are found to have a lower likelihood of exit than do smaller plants. Similarly, establishnwnts which are independent are found to have a lower likelihood of exit within the following years than do newly created establishments belonging to a multi-plant firm. However, the determinants of exit apparently vary along with the age of the establishment. Innovative activity is found to raise the likelihood of establishment exit in the short run but lower it in the longer run.