A measure of regional influence with the analytic network process

The metropolitan region is commonly defined by a socio-spatial network of urban nodes that are linked in territory and function. Such a network is differentiated by size and dominance of the linked nodes, characterized by physical or virtual flows of a wide-ranging variety. The analytic network process (ANP) is a multi-criteria analytic method that measures the influence or dominance of the nodes in a network with feedback. We illustrate how ANP determines county rank as a measure of influence in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) defined by its interrelated socio-economic and spatial elements qualitatively and quantitatively. We compare the ANP results to similar measures of regional influence in the literature.     

我国东北地区港湾物流现状与展望——以图们江通海物流为中心

东北亚地区的经济技术交流的日益频繁,为我国东北地区物流的发展带来新的机遇。图们江流域物流发展符合区域经济发展的趋势。但是,图们江港湾物流未形成完整持续的物流链,通关管理水平有待提高。图们江通海物流要立足东北地区,依托朝鲜罗津港,充分利用地理上邻近日韩的区位优势,加快发展通海物流。     

Euro area inflation persistence

This paper presents evidence on the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation in the euro area as a whole as well as in some of its core countries, notably Germany, Italy and France. In line with previous findings for the US and the UK, results here show that it takes over a year before monetary policy actions have their maximum effect on inflation both in the euro area and in individual countries and that a lag of this length has existed in Europe at least since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, despite the numerous changes in European monetary policy regime thereafter. Results based on alternative definitions of inflation persistence support these findings and indicate, if any, that transmission lags could be in fact much longer for individual countries and the euro area as a whole, although, at the country level, there is strong evidence over time of a drop in German inflation persistence and a sizeable shift in the mean of inflation – particularly in Italy and France. An examination based on results from this paper reveals that euro area inflation persistence could well be an intrinsic phenomenon rather than a ‘statistical fluke’ due to aggregation.This research was conducted during my visit at the European Central Bank Directorate Research, as part of the Research Visitor Programme. I would like to thank Anna Maria Agresti for providing individual country data from the macroeconomic database of the Monetary Transmission Network; Alistair Dieppe for providing data from the ECB area-wide model dataset; and Michele Manna for supplying me with the area-wide M3 data for the period 1970–1980. I thank Gabriel Fagan, Frank Smets, Ignazio Angeloni, Vítor Gaspar, Michael Ehrmann, Guenter Coenen, Oreste Tristani, Tommaso Monacelli, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Gerhard Ruenstler for helpful discussions during my stay at the ECB. I would also like to thank seminar participants at the ECB for their input and I am very grateful to Jeffrey Fuhrer, Edward Nelson and Kenneth West, Bernd Fitzenberger and two anonymous referees for comments on an earlier draft. Any errors and omissions are mine. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management     

构建共青城“低碳经济示范区”的战略思考

鄱阳湖生态经济区承载着江西在中部崛起的希望。共青城作为江西重点支持发展的鄱阳湖生态经济区生态城市,具有生态环境美、产业基础好、落后产能存量小、污染程度低的优势。把实施低碳经济发展纳入共青城发展战略,构建"低碳经济示范区",通过制定更加严格的产业效能标准,设定灵活的产业用地门槛,搭建低碳经济发展的平台,加快制定生态产业扶持政策等措施,重点发展光伏产业、新型家电制造业、会展业、旅游休闲业和教育培训业等低碳产业,必将能使共青城的生态优势转化为经济优势,率先在全省实现全面小康水平的目标。     

优化人力资本配置与推进和谐社会建设的关系探析

和谐社会是一个以人为本,经济、社会全面、协调、可持续发展的社会。人力资本的合理配置是促进产业结构优化和区域均衡发展的基础和动力。本文通过论述人力资本配置与和谐社会建设之间的关系,将人力资本配置提高到和谐社会这个更高的层次上来。     

Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated in the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model, an AR(1) model, a sample mean and a random walk.     

榆林市城乡群众体育基础设施现状分析与对策研究

城市和乡村作为两种不同的生活形态在制度设计、经济建设和资源配置等方面的差异是显著的。经调查分析榆林市城乡群众体育基础设施的配置存在差异进而影响着榆林市城乡群众体育的协调发展。榆林市城乡群众体育协调意在实现城乡体育资源合理配置即体育基础设施的发展,从而使榆林市城市和乡村群众体育有秩序、有层次的向更高的目标迈进。本文在分析城乡群众体育协调发展必要性的基础上,探讨了榆林市城乡群众体育协调发展的内涵和基本理念.并对协调发展榆林市城乡群众体育进行对策分析。     

我国反倾销中的反规避立法亟待完善

本文主要阐述了反倾销中的反规避行为，通过比较欧美立法，提出对我国立法具有参考性的建设性意见，强调了我国反规避立法的迫切性与必要性。     

成渝经济区城市体系规模结构实证

采用豪斯道夫(Hausdorff)分维模式,利用2002和2003年成渝经济区各等级城市非农业人口、社会商品零售总额、国内生产总值(GDP)、第一产业产值、第二产业产值、第三产业产值等6个指标对成渝经济区城市体系的分形特征进行研究。结果表明,成渝经济区城市体系的规模结构较为分散。除第一产业外,经济区内各城市在非农业人口、社会商品零售总额、国内生产总值(GDP)、第二产业产值、第三产业产值方面存在着较大的等级差异。针对这一现状,提出了完善和优化成渝经济区城市等级规模结构的对策建议。     

长沙大河西战略的正效应研究

为探索＂两型社会＂发展的新路子,2007年底长沙市委研究决定扩大岳麓区的版图,并将它打造成一个先导区,由点到面带动整个城市群的发展,这个战略被命名为＂大河西战略＂。大河西战略实施至今,对长株潭地区的经济增长产生了明显的正效应,也给湖南的区域经济发展注入了有力的支持。