A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy

In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.First revision received: May 2002/Final revision received: May 2003I thank Helmut Lütkepohl, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 373) is gratefully acknowledged.     

洞庭湖区农村工业发展与移民建镇的调查与关联研究

洞庭湖区是国家确定的移民建镇的重点地区，移民人数之多，规模之巨，直追三峡移民工程。文章以移民问卷调查和乡镇企业问卷调查为研究基础，深入认识乡镇企业发展的现状以及其对移民安置的吸纳能力；深入认识移民的安置现状以及其择业的意愿，进而探讨洞庭湖区农村工业发展与移民建镇的联系，为制定科学合理、相互协调统一的移民建镇长远规划和农村工业化、城镇化战略提供决策参考。     

烟台地区耕地资源态势及宏观驱动力研究

According to the statistics of cultivated land in Yantai area during the Reform and Opening-up over the past 20 years and with the detailed survey and changing data of land use during the recent live years, this paper reveals the basic characteristics of the resource utilization, the basic process of the changes, regional differences, and current direction of cultivated land In addition, this paper makes a preliminary research on the major driving factors and the influence mechanism for the changes in the cultivated land area. and reaches the following conclasions： （1） There was a trend of obvious fluctuant decrease in cultivated laud area during the past 20 years. The changes of cultivated land have undergone the process - slow decrease,steep decrease, slow decrease. And there were three peak periods of cultivated land loss around 1985. 1987-1996 and 1991-1993 respectively （2） The decreased cultivated land was mainly converted into land for industry and mining, residential area. and all kinds of traffic and orchards. The increase of cultivated land mainly came from exploitation and land and arrangement and reclamation of industry and mining land （3） The economic development. population growth and policy are the dominant macro-driving factors for the decrease of cultivated land area in Yantai. The obvious sudden changes during the change process of cultivated land acreage are relevant to the national macro.policies background The rapid decrease of cnltivated land area is synchronous with the overheated economic growth resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets. Spatial distribution of the decrease in cultivated land is congruous with the differences in speed and the scale of economic growth between the different regions of Yantai area. Furthermore. the decrease in cultivated land caused by population increase cannot be ignored.     

丹霞山世界地质公园生命周期解析

从早期的山区到2004年成为世界地质公园,广东丹霞山的旅游发展实现了由不为人知到全球知名的变化,借助旅游地生命周期理论,对丹霞山旅游生命周期进行阶段划分和特征界定,认为民间、政府、专家、企业等开发主体在丹霞山的成功发展中产生了重要影响,其作用机制对其他旅游景区具有值得借鉴的启示意义.     

长三角地区两层次行为主体利益分享机制——基于讨价还价模型的分析

长三角地区一体化的核心问题是利益分配和协调。罗宾斯泰英建立了一个轮流出价的讨价还价模型。该模型具有以下三方面的启示:一是关于贴现因子;二是关于“先动优势”和“后动优势”;三是关于“尽快接受”原则。本文基于讨价还价模型探讨了长三角地区利益分享机制。首先,必须明确在长三角地区利益分事过程中存在着政府和企业两层次的行为主体;其次,由于我国经济转轨时期的特殊性,政府仍然掌握着绝大部分的资源,因而必须建立政府间磋商机制;最后,企业是市场经济活动的主体,因而必须完善企业间竞合机制。     

欠发达地区的经济"区域内循环"现象

由于主客观因素的存在,导致欠发达地区的经济“区域内循环”现象成为一种普遍存在,而这种经济现象的存在,导致区域经济活动的“乘数”效应减小、产业链的延伸受阻、弱化了企业的创新意识、重复性建设不断出现和欠发达状况长期存在。因此,要实现欠发达地区经济的跨越式发展,就必须下大力气解决经济的“区域内循环”问题。     

新形势下我国欠发达地区开发的战略转型问题研究

自国家实施西部大开发战略以来,我国欠发达地区的开发取得了突破性的进展。但是,由于对西方发达国家欠发达地区开发成功经验的洞察及运用不科学,加之对若干年来我国自身开发经验的总结不透彻,我国欠发达地区的开发出现了重大的战略偏差。因此,重新审视国内外欠发达地区开发的策略与实践,适时进行我国欠发达地区开发的战略转型探索已经迫在眉梢。     

加工企业带动型农业产业化模式探析

加工企业带动型是农业产业化经营的一种重要类型,本文以南京郊区和苏锡常地区为例,探讨"市场+加工企业+基地(农户)"模式的产加销各环带联结方式,以及运行机制的特点.     

城市滨水区复合开发模式研究

针对城市滨水区的发展及其面临问题，分析国内外关于城市滨水区开发模式。在此基础上，提出了将滨水城市空间结构调整与城市滨水区开发相结合的复合开发模式，并阐述了复合开发模式的主要内容。     

河套灌区不同群管组织的评价

本文在简述河套灌区群管组织发展现状的基础上,分析了农户对群管组织效果的评价。结果表明:农户用水协会和代管公司,在农户获得灌溉水权、避免"搭车收费"、加强水利工程管护、减少用水纠纷、降低水费、推动种植结构调整、促进灌溉方式转变方面都是有效的,并且也得到了农户的认可。