以"水银行"模式探索创新太湖流域水资源配置手段的思考

太湖流域处于我国南方丰水地区,但水质型缺水及河湖生态环境状况不佳是长期面临的问题和挑战。当前流域水资源配置采用行政协调分配模式而非市场手段,需求侧为规划方案的预测需水,因此供给侧的水量也随之固定,且不随水价而改变,不利于提高水资源的利用效率。选取“水银行”模式探索流域水资源配置新手段,提出了以太湖等重要河湖为调配中心的“太湖水银行”模式初步设想,通过存水、贷水等业务体现水的真实价值和配置、保护、调度等综合成本,近期在总量控制的前提下通过交易付费约束用水需求,促进水的合理、高效使用,远期则提出了以奖优罚劣为准则促进太湖等重要河湖来水水质保障的总体构想。     

SCS模型在无资料地区径流模拟估算中的应用*——以清河流域为例

［目的］无资料地区的水文模拟,一直是摆在水文工作者中的一大难题。文章尝试利用由美国农业部水土保持局开发的SCS（Soil Conservation Service）模型对资料稀缺的西安市清河流域开展径流模拟估算。［方法］该模型结构简单,参数较少,极大地降低了对研究区基础地理数据与水文数据的依赖程度。由于缺乏实测历年径流总量数据,该文提出径流系数区间法来验证SCS模型模拟效果。以径流系数取值区间的平均值计算出的年际平均径流总量作为验证的参考值。［结果］（1）清河流域历年的年径流总量与年降雨总量有很好的对应关系,在不考虑地下水损耗的情况下,年降雨量越大,地表径流也越大,其中2003年径流总量最大,达到1 400万m3,最小为1997年的300万m3。（2）为弥补研究区资料稀缺问题,用径流系数区间法对模拟结果进行验证,验证结果为确定性系数09,纳什系数06,结果表明,基于SCS模型模拟估算清河流域年际径流总量取得了令人满意的效果。［结论］SCS模型在清河流域的成功应用表明,该模型可以在无资料地区或资料稀缺地区开展径流模拟,由于其建模简洁,极大地降低了在类似无资料区域开展水文模拟的难度,为此类地区开展水文研究提供了新的途径。研究结果可为当地水资源管理提供一定依据。     

柴达木地区草产业化与草牧业灾害预防机制建设的思考

[目的]草牧业是柴达木地区农业主导产业,但受自然灾害影响不能安全发展,迫切需要建立草产业经济模式以实现突破。[方法]文章从草产业发展和抗灾预防角度出发,运用传统综合法,突出主导因素,分解系统,深度分析,综合平衡,统筹协调,确立草产业经济建设对策。[结果]草地经营现状是:天然草地利用过度,陷入恶性循环;草产业建设滞后,管理缺位,致使草畜供求失衡,草牧业缺乏安全生产基础。草地建设障碍是:草地质量低,水资源利用困难,生产分散;发展优势是:生产有一定基础,生产环境安全,草产品市场大,生产建设有潜力。[结论]提出草产业经济建设思路,指导思想:以饲草料建设为突破点,建立草产业发展与抗灾防御协调机制。建设规划:布局饲草料中心生产保障基地12处,饲草料生产保障小区5处,定向生产建设,实现草产品全覆盖辐射。建设方案:突出重点建设和优先发展区域,优化建设秩序;开发饲草料资源,有效组织生产;转变经营方式,以集约化替代粗放化;建设草畜平衡协调机制,保障灾害饲草料预防需要。建设策略:聚集社会资源,共同参与建设;建立扶助机制,优化建设环境;搭建发展平台,强化服务功能;强化生产管理,规范市场行为。     

干旱区流域地下水生态调节与监测预警研究

[目的]干旱区流域地下水资源与生态环境具有紧密的响应关系。塔里木河流域是我国典型的干旱荒漠区,研究地下水对生态的调节功能以及对地下水的监测预警,对干旱区流域可持续发展具有重要的作用。[方法]根据流域地下水自动监测系统的长期监测,研究选取塔里木河上游阿拉尔、新渠满,中游英巴扎,下游恰拉、阿拉干共5个断面31眼监测井进行地下水位检测。[结果]监测显示,塔里木河流域上、中游的地下水位良好,下游地下水位较低,生态环境脆弱;地下水位最低值与最高值一般均出现在7~9月,对生态环境具有强烈的影响。[结论]根据对塔里木河流域地下水位的监测预警,为了更加有效地保护塔里木河流域地下水,要处理好流域地下水开发、保护与生产、生态用水之间的关系,提高用水效率,禁止开荒扩大生产,严格管理地下水开采,保护好地下水水质,加大对流域下游的生态输水,逐步恢复下游生态环境。     

Optimisation of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district's board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south‐eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district's decisions.     

含水致密气藏产能评价新方法——以鄂尔多斯盆地东缘致密气田为例

随着致密气勘探开发技术的发展，中海油临兴-神府区块致密气勘探取得突破，发现探明储量超千亿立方米的致密气田，然而相比于苏里格等气田，具有地层压力低、产水量大等特点。如何针对该类含水致密气藏产能进行评价对区块开发至关重要。基于该区块实际岩心开展启动压力梯度实验，创新定量评价启动压力梯度与渗透率和含水饱和度之间的关系。在此基础上利用气水两相流渗流力学理论，创新建立考虑动态启动压力梯度的含水致密气藏压裂气井多因素产能公式，并与现场实际试气结果进行对比，验证模型的准确性。研究分析地质工程因素对产能的影响。结果表明：含水饱和度对气井产能影响显著，随着储层含水饱和度的增加，气井产能大幅降低；随着启动压力梯度增加，气井产能降低并且气井存在最小流动压差，为气井生产策略提供依据；压裂工程改造中随着裂缝半长与渗透率的增加，气井产能增加，但是存在最优的裂缝渗透率值。研究成果可为优化致密气工程改造实施提供新的解决方案。     

火山岩气藏储量有效动用及开发宏观政策研究

火山岩气藏储层地质条件复杂，具有“三高二低三多”特征，因此，火山岩气藏储量有效动用及开发难度大，经济风险大。在运用贴现现金流法完成松辽盆地已动用火山岩气藏储量开发效益分析的基础上，根据已开发火山岩气藏的静动态特征，采用基于贴现现金流法的经济极限法完成松辽盆地火山岩气藏未动用储量的开发潜力分析。为促进火山岩气藏有效开发，应加大技术攻关研究经费支持力度，给予火山岩气藏开发建设项目投资优惠政策，对边际气体和无效气体开发项目给予税费优惠政策，提高气价或给予气价补贴优惠政策，鼓励火山岩气藏开发伴生气CO2的捕集和利用。     

Drivers and projections of vegetation loss in the Pantanal and surrounding ecosystems

Modeling scenarios can help identify drivers of and potential changes in land use, particularly in rapidly changing landscapes such as the tropics. One of the places where most of the recent anthropogenic land use changes have been occurring is the "arc of deforestation" of the Amazon, where several scenarios have been constructed. Such modeling scenarios, however, have been implemented less frequently in wetland areas, but these are also undergoing rapid change. An example is the Pantanal, one of the largest wetlands on the planet located in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). The UPRB is formed by the lowland (Pantanal) and the plateau (Cerrado and Amazon where the spring-fed rivers are). We used a spatially explicit model to identify drivers of vegetation loss in the Pantanal and surrounding area (UPRB) and estimated potential vegetation loss for the next 30 years. The model is probabilistic and considers that vegetation loss is contagious, so that the local rate of deforestation increases over time if adjacent sites are deforested, also taking into account the drivers identified in those locations. Our study is the first to simulate vegetation loss at property-scale, over 20,000 properties, for the entire UPRB in Brazil, taking into account the relationship between the plateau, where headwaters are located, and the lowland, where flooded-areas are concentrated. The drivers of vegetation loss identified for the lowland (distance to roads and rivers and elevation) differed from those for the plateau (distance to cities), demonstrating the relevance of analyzing areas separately. The cumulative rate of native vegetation loss projected for 2050 was 3% for the lowland and 10% for the plateau, representing losses of 6045 km² and of native vegetation area decreasing from 87% to 83% and 7960 km² from 39% to 35% respectively by 2050, if changes continue at the same pace and if the environmental legislation is followed. The projected vegetation loss in the UPRB forms a geographical arc, very similar to that observed in the Amazon, from the plateau into the lowland. The arc is directly related to areas with no or low flooding frequency because they are suitable for agriculture. The identification of this arc of vegetation loss calls for urgent conservation policies for this wetland and new perspectives for management.     

汉水流域民族传统体育文化开发研究

本文采用文献资料、实地访谈等方法,对汉水流域民族传统体育现状进行剖析,主要是为了了解汉水流域民族传统体育的发展现状,分析汉水流域民族传统体育人文基础及文化优势,提出相应的建议及对策。     

湟水流域典型县域土地可持续利用分区研究

运用GIS技术和数学模型方法,以湟水流域典型县域互助县为例,在分析研究区土地利用现状分析的基础上,重点分析了县域土地利用分区。结果表明:将研究区土地可持续利用分区划分为川水河谷粮、经、林高产稳产区、浅山中山水土保持农林区、半浅半脑丘陵农业稳产区、脑山中山农牧复合区、北部高山林牧发展区和中部盆地工业城镇建设区6个不同分区,并有针对性地提出了各区域的土地可持续利用方向。结合分区图和该县的具体情况,分区结果还是比较合理和切合实际的,可以为该县乃至整个湟水流域土地利用分区提供思路,对于湟水流域社会经济、生态的发展具有积极的意义。