From fork to farm: Impacts of more sustainable diets in the EU-27 on the agricultural sector

The implications of dietary changes for the environment and for human health are well documented, but the impacts on the agricultural sector are less well researched. We fill this gap by specifying scenarios in which European consumers' diets approximate the EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations to varying degrees and estimate the effects on agricultural production, incomes and emissions using an agro-economic modelling framework. The combination of different models allows for a detailed assessment of consequences for the agricultural sector from the global through European NUTS2 level to the farm level at different time scales. Shifting European consumption towards the EAT-Lancet recommendations leads to decreasing production of animal-based products, while production of fruits and vegetables increases sharply. The results indicate that the agricultural sector could benefit from a dietary shift, though the results are mixed at country, regional and farm levels. In particular, countries and regions that are highly specialised in animal farming are likely to lose income—at least in the short run—while regions with higher shares of vegetable and fruit farms can expect income gains. In Germany, pig and poultry farms may experience losses of up to 34% of their income, whereas farms with a high share of vegetables could gain more than 30% in income. Our results have implications for the policies to assist these extensive structural adjustments in response to widespread dietary changes.     

Does servant leadership foster creativity and innovation? A multi-level mediation study of identification and prototypicality

The purpose of this multi-level study is to examine how servant leadership affects both employee creativity and team innovation. Drawing from social identity, in particular, relational identification theory, we found on the basis of a two-nation Asian sample of 154 teams that servant leadership promotes individual relational identification and collective prototypicality with the leader which, in turn, fosters employee creativity and team innovation. In addition, our study suggests that the mediated effect of leader identification is strongest when team climate for innovation is high.     

陕西省装备制造业景气指数编制研究

装备制造业是制造业的核心组成部分,是国民经济发展特别是工业发展的基础。通过编制陕西省装备制造业景气指数,加强对装备制造业发展状况的分析和预测,对于行业健康发展、带动全省经济腾飞具有重要的意义。本文在借鉴国内外景气指数编制方法基础上,探索编制出了陕西省装备制造业景气指数,并通过指数编制结果对陕西省装备制造业景气发展态势和趋势进行深入分析和预测。     

Crop Insurance as a Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change

Financial insurance for extreme events can play an important role in hedging against the implications of climate change. This paper combines a comprehensive estimation strategy and a unique panel dataset to study the role of financial insurance in farmers' welfare under uncertainty. Data are drawn from a large Italian farm panel dataset. We find that (i) demand for insurance products is likely to increase in response to climatic conditions, and (ii) that the use of insurance reduces the extent of risk exposure. We also find that farms growing more crops are less likely to adopt the insurance scheme. This confirms what is found in the theoretical literature. Crop diversification can be a substitute for financial insurance in hedging against the impact of risk exposure on welfare.     

历史文献记录的塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘的气候环境变化

本文采用历史文献记录的信息,研究塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘历史时期的气候和环境变化。结果表明:塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘地区的干旱环境由来已久;历史文献记录的气候变化与相关地区对应较好;历史时期的环境变化是自然和人类活动综合作用的结果;沙漠化多发生在沙漠内部河流下游的绿洲地段,而其发生的原因主要是河流改道,绿洲废弃,沙丘前移入侵从而形成沙漠化土地,而不是过去一般认为的整个沙漠南移的结果。     

森林旅游者的全球气候变暖认知及低碳出行意向

基于在海南省火山口国家级森林公园的调查数据,根据环境态度,运用K-Means聚类法将旅游者划分为近生态中心主义者和近人类中心主义者。采用独立样本t检验,比较持不同环境态度的旅游者全球气候变暖认知及低碳出行意向上的差异。结果显示:⑴前往海南火山口国家级森林公园的旅游者以近生态中心主义者居多;与近人类中心主义者相比,近生态中心主义者中女性所占比例较高,学历也较高。⑵近生态中心主义者对全球气候变暖致因、气候变暖认知、后果意识及其与旅游业之间的关系等方面的认知显著高于近人类中心主义者。⑶近生态中心主义者为减少温室气体排放而选择低碳出行方式的意向显著高于近人类中心主义者。因此,加强环境教育,有助于旅游者低碳出行,进而减少旅游业对气候变暖的负面影响。     

Economic impacts of climate change on the Australian dairy sector

We analyse the economic implications of climate‐driven pressures on the pasture‐based dairy sector in Australia. We use an integrated assessment model that includes a climate scenario generator, a climate‐biophysical response framework and an economywide analytical framework. For the climate scenario generator, we use data from the OzClim database of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. For the climate‐biophysical response framework, we use the DairyMod model with inputs of changes in climate variables from OzClim to quantify climate change effects on pasture growth and productivity. For the economywide analytical framework, we use the National Integrated Assessment Model to quantify the economic implications of these effects on the dairy sector. The simulated pattern of regional changes in dairy output is not a simple function of the changes in dairy productivity. Our results show that the relative size of productivity changes across regions affects the relative competitive advantage of dairy‐producing regions. Several factors affect the regional distribution of simulated dairy‐output changes, including substitution among sources of dairy output and competition for inputs like supplementary feed. An increased output in regions with moderate reductions in dairy productivity may occur because the severely climate‐affected regions absorb the greatest loss in output.     

气候变化对粮食产量影响的研究方法综述

[目的]受气候变化的影响,全球粮食安全面临严峻挑战,及时准确地评估气候变化对粮食产量的影响是应对挑战、制定农业适应性对策的关键。相关研究已产生了不少方法,通过综述对方法进行分类,明晰各种方法的优缺点和适用性,以期扬长避短,促进研究方法的综合、发展与完善。[方法]利用文献法、归纳法和比较法,从方法的原理和应用、存在的问题、发展的趋势3个方面进行探讨。[结果]产量分解法可用于分析粮食产量及其构成要素与不同生育期气候变化的关系,实验比较法一般用于粮食产量对单个气候因子或若干气候因子变化的敏感性分析,生产函数法适用于在农业生产系统中分析气候变化对粮食产量影响的边际效应,气候生产潜力模型法侧重于农业生产环境发展评估,作物生长模型法便于结合气候情景预测未来气候变化对粮食产量的影响。在不同研究方向上得以运用的同时,各方法也暴露了一些问题:产量分解法的技术产量难以拟合,实验比较法的数据获取难、模型稳定性较差,生产函数法容易遗漏重要变量、函数构造困难,气候生产潜力模型法的结论难以验证,作物生长模型法参数标定难、模型应用存在尺度错位。[结论]研究方法将逐渐形成一套综合的气候—水文—作物—经济模型法,多源数据融合和多目标模式已经成为方法发展的驱动力。     

Agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern US: do weather and climate variability matter?

Governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather. The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions. In the US, agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies. The payments, and their distribution, are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events, usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as some economic variables, on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation.     

COPENHAGEN,CANCÚN AND THE LIMITS OF GLOBAL WELFARE ECONOMICS

The rise of a global welfare economics directed at the environmental challenges facing our planet represents a new policy phenomenon. This paper examines the most ambitious attempt so far to put such economics into practice via the Kyoto Protocol and more specifically the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol. The Copenhagen and Cancún climate change conferences have put an end to hopes of the Protocol serving as an effective tool in the mitigation of global warming. This failure of the new global welfare economics is the result of flawed principles, not just defective implementation.