基于“双循环”视角的中国与其他金砖国家畜牧产业：比较优势与合作潜力

目的 在“双循环”的新发展格局下，深化畜牧业国际合作是促进我国畜牧业向现代化转型升级的重要举措。方法 文章简述分析中国与其他金砖国家畜牧业发展以及双边畜产品贸易概况，并运用兰氏距离法、产业内贸易指数法以及随机前沿引力模型从不同视角分析中国与其他金砖国家在畜牧业领域的合作潜力。结果 （1）金砖各国畜牧产业发展比较优势明显，中国与其他金砖国家畜产品贸易份额持续上升；（2）中国与巴西、印度在畜牧业生产要素方面的互补指数分别为1.296和1.037，具有高度互补性，与俄罗斯、南非的互补性指数为0.707和0.391，处于中等偏高度水平；（3）中国与其他金砖国家在畜产品贸易中整体以产业间贸易为主，贸易互补性较强，尤其是在肉类、奶类、蛋类产品上有很大的贸易互补性；（4）双边畜产品贸易效率呈波动上升趋势，整体效率水平较低，还有极大的畜产品贸易潜力可挖掘，贸易可提升空间巨大。结论 我国要积极与其他金砖国家在畜牧业资源、畜产品深加工、牲畜养殖、技术装备、畜产品贸易等多领域展开深入合作，实现畜牧业“走出去”与“引进来”，打造畜牧业新发展格局，促进区域经济协同发展。     

互联网发展与区域经济收敛——基于空间计量的分析

互联网具有“时空压缩”特质和新经济增长点“催化剂”效应,逐渐成为欠发达地区实现跨越式发展的驱动力量。本文以中国30个省(区、市)2006~2019年的面板数据为样本构建互联网发展指标体系,基于空间条件收敛模型,分析互联网发展对区域经济收敛的影响。结果表明:互联网发展对中国区域经济收敛具有促进作用,且呈现直接和溢出的双重促进效应;异质性研究发现互联网发展对东、西部区域经济收敛具有促进作用,但对中部地区影响不显著。本文研究一定程度上解释了互联网发展对区域差距稳态趋同的作用,对实现我国区域协调发展具有重要的现实意义。     

Piecewise linear double barrier options

A piecewise linear double barrier option generalizes classical double barrier options because of its versatility in designing various double boundaries. This paper discusses how to price piecewise linear double barrier options. To this purpose, we derive the probability that an underlying process does not cross a given piecewise linear double barrier, where the underlying process follows the Brownian motion of piecewise constant drift. Using the established non-crossing probability, we provide the explicit pricing formulas of piecewise linear double barrier options and show how the shape of a double barrier affects the option prices through extensive numerical experiments.     

碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响机制研究

碳排放权交易既是实现“双碳”目标的必然选择，也是推动中国区域经济绿色增长的重要途径。本文基于“波特假说”和新发展理念，探讨碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响机制。将试点政策作为一项准自然实验，基于2005—2018年中国内地30个省份面板数据（因数据缺失，不包括西藏和港澳台地区），采用双重差分模型进行实证检验。结果表明：(1)碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长起显著促进作用，且存在正向累积动态效应，经过安慰剂检验和PSM-DID检验，发现结论依然成立。(2)碳交易试点政策对中国区域经济绿色增长的影响具有区域异质性，东部地区政策促进效应显著，而中部地区不显著，西部地区则呈现不明显的抑制效应。(3)机制研究表明，碳交易试点政策通过推动绿色技术创新、调整产业结构、优化能源结构、吸引外商直接投资以及促进共享发展以实现中国区域经济绿色增长。其中，共享发展的中介效应最大，其次为绿色技术创新和产业结构，而能源结构和外商直接投资的中介效应较小。(4)分区域机制检验发现，东部地区共享发展的中介效应最大，绿色技术创新和产业结构次之，能源结构的中介效应最小；中部地区中介效应最大为能源结构，其次为绿...     

Bank provision reversals and income smoothing: A case study

Incentives for banks to achieve income targets have previously been identified as a strong motivation for income smoothing (IS). Extant literature captures bank IS indirectly via discretionary provision estimations. In turn, our study directly locates IS through loan loss provision reversals. Drawing from bounded rationality perspectives, we investigate a systemic European Bank from January 2006 to September 2017, with 15,931 unique loan portfolio-quarter observations, employing a frequency and machine learning analysis. Our empirical investigation reveals both the main incentives underlying provision reversals recognition and the reported income consequences of such reversals, in times of recession. In particular, we find that provision reversals are principally used to avoid negative reported income (i.e., net losses). There is also some evidence that provision reversals are used to avoid income decline compared to the previous quarter. Finally, we show an asymmetric pattern of provision reversals over time with an emphasis on the early recession years. Our study contributes to the efforts of policy makers (both banking and accounting regulators) to reduce opportunistic, income-increasing actions by bank executives in difficult times.     

产业转移能促进地区产业结构优化升级吗？——基于承接产业转移示范区的事实检验

利用275个地级市2004—2018年的数据通过双重差分法分析国家级承接产业转移示范区对所在地产业结构的影响。结果表明：示范区的成立会对所在地的产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化产生显著的抑制作用；在一段时间后，示范区对产业结构合理化的影响会由负效应转变为正效应，对产业结构高级化的负面影响也会变得不再显著；示范区位于不同地区、高新区、政府规模都会使示范区对地区产业结构产生不同的影响。据此提出对示范区建设的几点建议。     

The effects of business- and non-business-targeting terrorism on FDI to the MENA region: The moderating role of political regime

This study investigates the effects of terrorist attacks on foreign investment by stressing the importance of both business- and non-business-targeting terrorism in the host country. Building on North’s strand of institutional theory, we argue that both forms of terrorism represent exogenous risks likely to generate high levels of non-ergodic uncertainty for MNEs and subsequently deter foreign investors. Further, we hypothesize that these effects may be moderated by host-country political regime type, which serves as a gauge for a favorable investment environment for MNEs operating in institutionally fragile markets. Using panel data on fifteen MENA countries over the period 2001–2018, we find empirical support for our hypotheses whereby hybrid political regimes, namely anocracies, strengthen the negative effects of both business- and non-business-targeting terrorism on FDI. Our work contributes to the research on FDI and exogenous risks by offering a more fine-grained conceptualization of terrorism, as well as by highlighting the moderating role of host-country hybrid regimes.     

Inflation Expectations,Inflation Target Credibility,and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany

Using the exact wording of the European Central Bank's definition of price stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep recession implied by the Covid-19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2% over the medium term. We investigate how inflation expectations and the impact of the pandemic depend on personal characteristics including age, gender, education, and political attitude.     

跨大李沟变截面箱梁贝雷组合支架应用的研究

本文以襄阳东西轴线道路工程项目为依托,利用MIDAS/civil有限元软件对跨大李沟变截面预应力箱梁组合支架受力进行模拟计算,优化了支架类型,降低了施工的难度,减小了安全风险,同时满足了汛期河道疏通的要求,为现场文明绿色施工提供了保障,对跨沟、跨河变截面现浇预应力箱梁施工提供了宝贵经验。