人口结构变化对中国资产价格的影响*——理论分析与实证检验

本文引入中国特有的“统账结合”混合社会养老保险制度，构建了一个带有遗赠动机的理性预期代际交叠（OLG）模型，证明了劳动人口占比与资产价格存在正相关关系。在此基础上，本文以股票和商品房两类资产为例，检验了人口结构变化与中国资产价格之间的关系。结果显示，人口结构的变化只对房地产市场价格的变动有显著影响，而这一现象是由中国股票市场、房地产市场、居民金融资产结构等多方面的现实特点造成的。根据本文的研究结果，旨在改善人口老龄化问题的多种政策将有助于促进中国房地产市场的平稳发展。     

The Nurturing of Relationships in Commercial and Retail Banking

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to develop a better understanding of the factors associated with nurturing relationships between relationship managers and their clients in the banking industry. The Nominal Group Technique and a content analytical approach were both used to respectively collect and interpret the data. Results found the nurturing of relationships to be endogenous and asymmetrical in nature. The consequence is a personal, individualistic process maintained on behalf of the bank. The complexity associated with managing commercial portfolios requires commercial account managers to be more involved with their clients in the nurturing process than retail branch managers.     

企业环境成本核算的障碍与对策

工业经济快速发展造成了日益严重的环境问题。实施环境成本核算、采取措施控制环境成本对实现可持续发展是非常必要的。目前实施环境成本核算存在观念、制度和技术等方面的障碍。转变观念、强化企业社会责任教育、加强会计法制建设、完善市场调节等将对环境成本核算有积极促进意义。     

论会计集中核算模式下财务人员犯罪案件的司法会计鉴定及对策

会计集中核算制度是会计委派制实践中最主要的一种模式,是具有自身特点的一种制度。实行会计集中核算是为了进一步规范会计行为,提高会计信息质量和工作效率,是服务与监督融为一体的新型管理模式,是我国会计管理体制的重大改革与创新。但在近几年的司法实践中发现,这种集中核算报账制模式下出现了＂小人物、大贪污＂的经济犯罪案件,文章就此类案件现象、司法会计鉴定、预防对策等提出见解。     

人民币资本项目可自由兑换目标下的“双Q”制度研究

我国QFII和QDII制度是人民币资本项目可自由兑换的重要阶段。QFII和QDII近年取得较快发展,但亦面临QFII规模偏小、我国资本市场对其吸引力不够,QDII缺乏海外投资经验、亏损严重等问题。需要完善资本市场功能,为QFII制度的实施营造良好的投资环境;加强QDII风险管理,提高QDII境外投资管理能力;加强监管,健全和完善＂双Q＂制度,促进跨境证券投资持续健康发展。     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

Accounting Regulation,Financial Development,and Economic Growth

It is argued that the sustainability of external debts depends on the stationarity of the current account balance. This study tests for the stationarity of current account deficits for a sample of sixteen Latin American countries, employing a new test, advocated by Breuer et al. (2002), that allows one to test for unit roots in heterogeneous panel data sets. This version of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test involves estimating ADF regressions within a seemingly unrelated regression (SURADF) framework. The benefits of creating a panel to overcome low test power are well known, but this particular test also offers key advantages over existing alternative panel data unit root tests. Unlike previous tests, this one identifies which members from within the panel are responsible for rejecting the null hypothesis of joint nonstationarity. In addition, the SURADF test does not presume disturbances that are independently and identically distributed. Using annual data covering the period 1979-2001, this study finds strong evidence in favor of current account mean-reversion for at least twelve Latin American countries.     

中国应该以经常项目逆差为目标吗——以人口结构变迁为视角

Williamson认为,作为处于发展初期的发展中国家,中国应该输入资本,即使人口因素也不能推翻该结论。本文建立修正的Blanchard-Fischer模型以反映人口结构变迁,计算结果表明,即使是处于发展初期的发展中国家,经常项目顺差也有可能是最优的外部均衡目标。利用人口预测数据模拟中国的经常项目余额目标值,支持目前中国应维持适量净储蓄,以备未来人口老化的结论。     

The dynamics of tourism’s carbon footprint in Beijing,China

Abstract

Beijing is an important hub for global tourism, but the extent of tourism’s contribution to Beijing’s carbon footprint remains unclear. We integrated an environmentally extended multiregional input–output model and the tourism satellite account in a study to estimate the dynamics of Beijing’s tourism-related carbon footprint in the post-financial crisis period. Our findings indicate that from 2007 to 2012, whereas the carbon footprint of inbound tourists in Beijing steadily decreased, that of domestic tourists increased. The composition of carbon footprints for the consumption activities of inbound and domestic tourists differed substantially. We also traced the spatial distribution of carbon sources associated with tourism consumption in Beijing. In light of our findings, we offer recommendations to target the adoption of low-carbon consumption patterns by domestic tourists, and energy optimization of service suppliers by increasing energy use efficiency and the renewable energy ratio. In addition, we recommend that public and government should seek to lower energy costs and reduce carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of commodities. We conclude that the government and tourism authorities should actively promote carbon and wider environmental awareness, and that producers must seek to improve the efficiency of their energy use by reducing carbon emissions at source.     

加工贸易、FDI与中国国际收支不平衡

自1994年我国实行汇率并轨制度以来,中国国际收支一直面临着经常项目与资本和金融项目双顺差的结构,产生这种结构的原因是多方面的,本文从以加工贸易为主的贸易特征和由于对外资优惠而吸收的大规模外商直接投资(FDI)这两方面入手,分析他们对中国国际收支不平衡产生的影响。