Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy in China

Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors compare the statistical nature and potential forecasting effects of the resulting multivariate gap measure on monetary policy with those of the output gap measures based on univariate models. The empirical results show that only the measure based on the multivariate system significantly predicts monetary policy, which indicates that the output gap estimated by the multivariate system contains more information than the traditional measures for macroeconomic policy adjustments do.     

New development: All change? Performance assessment regimes in UK local government

Contrasting approaches to assessing the performance of public services highlight important issues for policy-makers and future research. We need systematic comparisons between countries. We should use a broader range of evidence. The public ought to have a greater role in designing performance criteria, and we need to know more about the impacts of assessments.     

A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC

This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The paper discusses the scope of the data set, possibilities for extending it, and some potential uses. It offers a preliminary examination of some of the cross‐sectional features of the data.     

论日本的土地征收制度

日本的土地征收制度颇具特色，除详尽规定了公共利益外，还设立了事业认定程序、裁决程序，规定了补偿制度，对征收中的争议提供了不同的救济途径。     

The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策关系研究——基于半参数模型的分析

多重委托代理关系的存在使得我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策之间的关系极其复杂。选取多个代理变量从不同的角度构建半参数模型,利用函数形式来刻画两者之间的非线性关系。利用我国565家上市公司的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:股权制衡度与现金分红数量之间存在倒"S"形关系,拐点分别在30%和60%左右;前十大股东持股比例与现金分红意愿及分红数量之间均存在明显的倒"U"形关系,拐点分别在60%和80%左右。     

可再生能源发电开发利用及经营情况实证分析——以江苏省为例

江苏省是能源消耗大省,又是资源小省,能源需求增长压力大,能源自给率不足20%。突破能源瓶颈,实现经济和社会发展主要有两个途径：一是节能降耗,二是增加供应。大力发展可再生能源,不失为江苏经济可持续发展的战略选择。     

我国农地制度的变迁轨迹及其现实功用

新中国成立以来我国农地制度经历了三次重大变迁:从封建地主土地所有制到农民土地所有制,再到集体所有、集体统一经营制度,最后到集体所有、家庭承包经营责任制。每一次农地制度变迁都在不同程度上体现了公平与效率的博弈。第一次变迁所形成的农民土地所有制既促进了效率也体现了公平。第二次变迁所形成的土地集体所有、集体统一经营制度表面上看公平有余效率不足,实则是既缺乏效率也不公平。第三次变迁所形成的土地集体所有、家庭承包经营制是公平诱因与效率诱因共同作用的结果,而且农地分配、农地调整、农地流转等方面存在的矛盾和问题,本质上都是公平与效率的博弈。我国农地制度进一步变迁的方向是实现公平与效率并重。     

How Safe Are the Harbors?

Abstract

With the growth of e-commerce has come the need for businesses to provide protection of personal, private data collected from internet users and consumers. The United States has favored a policy of industry self-regulation, while the European Union (EU) has responded to its consumer demands for privacy protection regulations and enforcement. Faced with the critical need for a middle ground, the US has proposed “Safe Harbor Privacy Principles” as a means of compromise with the EU. This article explores the market context of the Safe Harbor Principles, the European reaction, and the probable impact on businesses.