Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.     

An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

Contract length heterogeneity and the persistence of monetary shocks in a dynamic generalized Taylor economy

We develop the generalized Taylor economy (GTE) in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths. In economies with the same average contract length, monetary shocks will be more persistent when longer contracts are present. Using the Bils–Klenow distribution of contract lengths, we find that the corresponding GTE tracks the U.S. data well. When we choose a GTE with the same distribution of completed contract lengths as the Calvo, the economies behave in a similar manner.     

我国人口流动与中央财政转移支付相对力度的区域差异分析

为了缩小东中西部地区的发展差距,中央财政加大了对中西部地区的转移支付力度,但在促进区域经济发展收敛和实现地区财政均等化方面其效果如何,文章试图从一种新的视角加以分析与诠释。改革开放以来大规模的人口跨地区流动,特别是年轻劳动力从中西部地区向发达的东部地区流动,改变了各地区的人口结构和总扶养比,进而影响中央财政转移支付的实际效果。研究结果表明,由于西部地区总扶养比高于东部地区,中央财政对西部地区的转移支付相对力度反而低于东部地区。文章最后提出将地区人口负担差异纳入中央财政预算分析体系,通过增加中央财政对经济落后地区的转移支付促进地区经济增长收敛和提高地区财政帮扶的实效性。     

集成化物流资源整合的协同框架分析

本文以系统理论、协同理论为理论依据,采用粗糙集属性简约算法筛选出集成化物流资源系统的序参量——核心竞争力和协同度,在此基础上构建了集成化物流资源系统自组织模型。通过求解分析自组织模型,概念性地描述了集成化物流资源整合的协同过程,并揭示了集成化物流资源整合协同演化的本质,为指导集成化物流资源整合提供了理论依据。     

商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。     

我国商品期货市场节约社会试错成本研究

随着市场经济的发展,对期货市场功能的认识不断深化。文章在总结已有研究的基础上提出了价格发现是期货市场基本功能的观点,并将价格发现功能归结到微观上的套期保值、投机、套利和宏观上的节约社会试错成本。文章通过南华期货商品综合指数与PPI的关系检验,证实我国商品期货市场起到了节约社会试错成本的作用。为更好地发挥这一功能,应大力推进期货市场建设,完善商品期货体系,推出权威合理的商品期货指数。     

山西省科技型中小企业融资渠道现状分析

根据问卷调查数据,总结了山西省科技型中小企业的融资渠道现状,分析了造成其融资困难的原因。指出,在目前山西省的融资环境下,可从加大银行融资倾向、建立上市梯队、加强行业协会的引导服务入手拓宽山西省科技型中小企业的融资渠道、完善其融资体系。     

论制度环境对物流交易组织方式演化的影响

物流交易可以通过企业来组织,也可以通过市场来组织。建立物流外包企业群体和物流企业群体的演化博弈模型,根据博弈的演化路径,可以看出博弈可能收敛于两个均衡。其中一个均衡相对于另一个具有帕累托效率。博弈最终收敛于哪一个均衡取决于博弈的初始状态,但博弈双方所处的制度环境影响了博弈收敛于不同均衡的概率。完善制度环境有利于博弈收敛于效率较高的均衡,促进物流外包企业效率的提高和物流业的发展。     

制度环境、审计意见与银行贷款——来自中国上市家族企业的经验证据

以中国上市家族企业为研究样本,结合企业所处的制度环境(法制环境、金融市场化水平、政府干预程度)进行实证检验,结果显示:上市家族企业所处地区的法制环境较好,或金融市场化水平较高,标准无保留审计意见具有一定的信号显示效应,部分抵减了其披露制约效应;在政府干预的环境下,不同类型的审计意见对企业获得银行贷款没有影响,在这种条件下,审计意见不是商业银行授信时要考虑的一个重要因素;审计意见对企业获得银行贷款的影响表现在短期贷款上,对长期贷款没有影响,即商业银行在长期贷款授信时不关注借款企业的审计意见类型。