Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes

This paper contributes to the nascent literature on nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging market economies using big data methods. This is done by analyzing the usefulness of various dimension-reduction, machine learning and shrinkage methods, including sparse principal component analysis (SPCA), the elastic net, the least absolute shrinkage operator, and least angle regression when constructing predictions using latent global macroeconomic and financial factors (diffusion indexes) in a dynamic factor model (DFM). We also utilize a judgmental dimension-reduction method called the Bloomberg Relevance Index (BRI), which is an index that assigns a measure of importance to each variable in a dataset depending on the variable’s usage by market participants. Our empirical analysis shows that, when specified using dimension-reduction methods (particularly BRI and SPCA), DFMs yield superior predictions relative to both benchmark linear econometric models and simple DFMs. Moreover, global financial and macroeconomic (business cycle) diffusion indexes constructed using targeted predictors are found to be important in four of the five emerging market economies that we study (Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey). These findings point to the importance of spillover effects across emerging market economies, and underscore the significance of characterizing such linkages parsimoniously when utilizing high-dimensional global datasets.     

中小型侦察监视特种飞机系统的设计技术

分析了当前国内外典型中小型特种飞机的特点和应用方向，阐述了中小型特种飞机系统的技术发展趋势。通过分析典型的特种通用飞机的性能和平台构型特点，详细描述了基于典型中小型特种飞机平台的机载侦察监视应用系统的组成、原理、主要性能及技术难点，并结合实际工程应用，介绍了系统的应用成果。应用分析表明，基于中小型特种飞机平台的机载平台的应用系统有较大的应用范围和市场前景。     

On the measurement of investment types: Heterogeneity in corporate tax elasticities

This paper contributes to debates about the appropriate characterisation of heterogeneous investment types and to what extent different investment motives affect the responsiveness to corporate taxation. In particular, we employ and refine a methodology to better evaluate the tax elasticity of investment types. Using a combination of both firm‐specific information and sector‐specific information from input–output tables, we discuss how to classify investment as non‐related, horizontal, vertical and complex types. First, we point out to what extent the resulting classification depends on assumptions made by the researcher. Second, we employ an ample set of classifications and find that non‐related investment reacts stronger to corporate taxation, whereas horizontal investment is less responsive, though, significant negative tax semi‐elasticities turn out for the subset of manufacturing industries. To address inherent characteristics of vertical and complex investment, we extend the methodology and find that, by and large, stronger business motives reduce the tax responsiveness of investment to a larger extent. Given the current debates about substantial corporate tax reforms, it is all the more important to recognise that corporate tax effects can vary fundamentally between countries, driven by country‐specific differences in their composition of industries and investment types.     

Frustration-driven process improvement

When employees are empowered to continuously record their employment-related frustrations—doing so on accessible, visually prominent media—process improvement becomes upgraded to operate in a truly continuous mode. Frustrations are a superior target of process improvement in that they get at deep-seated concerns of people who have first-order process awareness and are most directly impacted by process failings. Recording frustrations not only provides a sound basis for pressing on to solutions, but it is also cathartic. The act of recording frustrations prominently on company-sanctioned media provides a positive outlet for the frustrations themselves.     

企业培训工作的问题与对策小议

本文重点关注了企业培训工作中容易出现的六个问题,通过对这些问题的简要分析,试图找到解决这些问题的相应对策。     

Competition and efficiency in the MENA banking region: a non-structural DEA approach

The goal of this article is to empirically assess the relationship between competition and efficiency in the banking sector of Middle East and North African (MENA) countries spanning the period 1997–2011. To measure the level of competition, the article estimates the non-structural indicator known as the H-statistic, while the level of bank efficiency is estimated through the nonparametric methodology of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis (BDEA), respectively. The empirical results are robust under six econometric methodologies, providing sufficient evidence for the presence of a one-way (negative) Granger causality, running from efficiency to competition. The empirical findings lead to the rejection of the ‘Efficient Structure Hypothesis’, implying that increases in competition do not precede increases in cost efficiency.     

小微机构以互联网方式接入金融信用信息基础数据库问题探讨——以吉林省为例

为支持小微机构健康、快速发展,中国人民银行长春中心支行按照省级平台一口接入的模式,积极组织小微机构有序开展接入金融信用信息基础数据库工作,但由于小微机构认识程度不够、业务管理不规范、接入费用高等因素,严重影响了接入进度。近期中国人民银行征信中心推出了互联网接入方式,并进行试点运行。以吉林省为例,分析接入模式转换时需要解决的问题,并提出相关政策建议。     

基于MVC的高校OA系统的设计与实现

随着计算机网络的飞速发展，OA系统已是高校信息化建设的重要标志。本文研究了高校信息化办公现状，针对存在的问题，设计并实现了基于B/S体系结构的协同办公系统。系统实现采用了MVC模式。经测试，系统满足设计需求，运行可靠。     

基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模过程评价框架研究

文章从多分辨率交通仿真的建模过程入手,研究了系统仿真的校核、验证与确认(Verification Validation Accreditation,VVA)过程评价的原理。在此基础上,提出了基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模的过程评价框架。通过研究仿真系统生命周期中的一系列活动来评价研究结果的正确性和有效性,提高了系统的可信性,使仿真系统能够满足实际应用的需要。     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.