匹克与阿迪达斯国际化经营战略比较研究

国际企业作为实现国际化投资、经营和管理的组织载体和国际市场行为主体,活跃在世界经济的舞台上。本文以匹克与阿迪达斯公司国际化经营战略为研究内容,从战略管理视角,结合匹克与阿迪达斯的国际经营环境之间的差异,系统论述了匹克与阿迪达斯在品牌国际化、海外市场进入模式和全球经营方面的差异,指出匹克这样的中国企业在国际化进程中既要学习阿迪达斯这样的国际著名体育企业的国际化经营战略,还要结合自身企业状况,制定合理的国际化经营战略。     

我国煤炭需求总量分析与预测

为了更好地研究煤炭总量的运行规律和特点,引导煤炭工业健康可持续发展,对我国煤炭需求总量的内涵、平衡态势和数量进行分析与预测。通过研究可以看出,我国煤炭生产总量和消费总量均呈逐步上升、基本保持平衡态势,而且两者波动趋势基本相同。结合设定的情景与我国经济增长,在高煤情景下,2050年之前没有出现峰值;中煤情景下,峰值在2020—2025年出现;低煤情景下,2025—2029年出现峰值。考虑到我国煤炭总量的特征,提出了具体的政策建议。     

应对高峰期客流的铁路运输组织策略研究

随着我国经济的迅猛发展,铁路客运出现了越来越多的客流高峰期。文章探讨在既有设施设备条件约束下,需要采用特殊运输组织方法解决客流高峰期问题。分析了客流高峰期的组成结构及行程原因后,提出了应对高峰期客流的运输组织策略。     

我国经济增长预测研究新探——基于分类变量的扩散指标法

基于分类变量的扩散指标方法是在Stock and Watson所提出的扩散指标法的基础上，利用变量之间的相似系数先对变量进行聚类分析，根据各变量的相似程度的大小分为几个变量子集，然后分别从变量子集中提取扩散指标。应用基于变量分类的扩散指标方法对我国经济增长的预测结果表明，同扩散指标法相比，该方法更加充分利用了原始数据中的有用信息，预测精度很高，因而是对经济增长进行预测的另一种有效方法。     

A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress,based on audit evidence

This paper provides evidence that audit reports convey relevant evidence for inferring the existence of underlying, unrevealed, financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, which studied US listed-firms bankruptcy, our research deals with Spanish non-financial SMEs under financial stress. Our results indicate that the audit of distressed SMEs has several distinctive features: higher auditor rotation, more qualified reports, and non-compliance with deadlines to approve and file the annual financial statements. We use this evidence to build and test a parsimonious and reliable forecast model. Several implications for auditors’ independence, information quality, and failure forecast are discussed.     

我国上市公司财务危机预测指标体系的述评与选择

本文回顾了国内外具有代表性的文献,对其使用预测指标的频数与样本数进行统计,结合锐思数据库取得的数据,得出我国上市公司财务危机预测备选指标体系,具有较好的适用性、可靠性、客观性与有效性。同时,本文指出文献中的一些不足之处,并给出改进建议。     

10 Things to Watch in 2015

【正】We expect GDP growth to average 7.1%in 2015:7.1%in Q1,7.2%in Q2 and Q3,and 7.0%in Q4CPI inflation should average 2%;disinflationary pressure is set to build ...     

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance*

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross‐country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts.     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

新疆艾维尔沟矿区焦煤井田地质灾害评估及防治措施

对拟建矿区进行地质灾害危险性现状评估,预测工程建设引发或加剧地质灾害的危险性程度,提出了相关的防治措施。