中国利率体系中主要利率间的关系研究

当前，我国正处于利率市场化改革的关键时期。利率市场化改革要求中央银行有完善的价格调控手段，并体现在基准利率体系的完善和利率传导机制的畅通上。本文对我国主要利率品种之间的关系进行实证研究发现，我国货币市场利率、央票利率、贷款利率等相关性不断增强。据此，本文对我国进一步推进利率市场化改革提出了政策建议。     

Corporate bond market interdependence: Credit spread correlation between and within U.S. and Canadian corporate bond markets

This study investigates the correlation and interdependence between and within the U.S. and Canadian corporate bond markets. The empirical framework adopted allows credit spreads to depend on common systematic risk factors derived from structural models and incorporates dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) between spreads. Results show that there is a surprisingly weak correlation between the two markets in normal times. However, during crises, there is a sudden and strong increase in the correlation between U.S. and Canadian credit spreads. The analysis of credit spread correlation within each market also shows an unusual increase in credit spread correlations between sectors and between risk classes in the U.S. during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. This increase persists over the post-crisis period. By contrast, in Canada, credit spread correlations between sectors remain remarkably stable over time, suggesting an interdependence of credit spreads within the Canadian market.     

Spatial Pattern and Spatiotemporal Evolution of China＇s National Historic Cities

基于地理信息系统空间分析技术,从微观、中观、宏观三个尺度对我国国家历史文化名城的地域分布差异和发展演变特征进行分析探讨,结果表明：在微观的市县级范围内,县级及以下名城的分布相对分散,地级及以上名城在我国东部和中部县市相对集中;在中观的省域范围内,1982年以来的一、二、三批名城在省域覆盖范围内具有较为明显的东南部、北部、中西部重心格局演变的特征;从全国范围来看,国家历史文化名城空间上总体表现为由东到西数量递减的非均衡分布特征,时空演变总体表现为由大中城市向中小城市,由中心城市、中部城市向边缘城市、地域特色城市,由直辖城市、省会城市向地级城市、县级城市、甚至城市的一个行政区扩展的特征。国家历史文化名城的批复发展在考虑各尺度区域范围内的等级差异和不均衡分布的基础上走向了科学化、细致化。     

电力市场效率评估与碳市场价格设计——基于电碳市场关联视角下的传导率估计

厘清并量化电力市场与碳市场间的关联关系,是深化电力市场改革与实现"双碳"目标的重要抓手。本文基于2006—2018年中国100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,使用似不相关回归模型评估了电力市场效率,在此基础上研究了电、碳市场关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,并对不同场景下全国碳市场的碳价进行了优化设计。研究发现:(1)与非试点地区相比,碳市场试点地区中电力市场的无谓损失率更低,并且市场效率的提高具有更高的碳减排作用。(2)电、碳市场关联条件下,碳价对电力市场中居民电价的传导率高于对工业电价的传导率,但均远低于完全竞争条件下的传导率水平。(3)传导率的提升能够缓解"降电价"与"碳减排"之间的矛盾。当前传导率下电力市场效率目标与碳减排目标的协同实现需要碳价的大幅提升,而在完全传导的理想情况下最优碳价约为40元/吨。(4)长期而言,当前传导率下碳排放总量下降场景、经济增速放缓场景对应的最优碳价分别为255.05元/吨、173.63元/吨,而人口老龄化场景并未对最优碳价的设置形成约束。本文的研究不仅为电力市场与碳市场之间的关联奠定了理论基础,也为全国碳市场价格机制的优化设计提供了政策参考。     

我国旅游业与民航客运业相关性研究及启示

民航客运业和旅游业之间的发展有很强的关联性,旅游业三大市场(国内旅游市场、出境旅游市场、入境旅游市场)都与民航客运业呈显著的正相关关系.因此,一方面要加强民航客运业与旅游业之间的合作,抓好国内旅游市场的客源,继续保持民航客运在出境游旅客中的绝对优势,开辟旅游特色航线,开发配合旅游业的民航特色服务,使民航客运业与旅游业在发展中携手共进;另一方面,民航客运业的发展要跟上旅游业发展的脚步,在运力、航线网络覆盖面等方面满足旅游业发展的需求,将旅游业对民航客运业发展的辅助作用发挥到极致.     

一种改进的松弛迭代图像配准算法

本文展示了一种改进的松弛迭代图像配准算法,此算法首先使用归一化自相关运算求得图像的粗匹配对,接着使用改进的松弛迭代匹配算法进行精匹配。本文通过优化筛选第一轮迭代结果,使得后续迭代时间明显减少。实验证明此算法效率比原始算法有了很大的提高。     

商品期货对资产配置的风险分散价值研究

基于BEKK-GARCH模型,本文考察了我国部分商品期货品种与股价指数收益率之间条件相关系数的动态变化特征,结果表明:商品期货与股价指数收益率之间存在较低的相关性;一些商品期货品种价格与股价指数的市场相关性呈长期减弱的趋势;而且,两者之间的相关性随股票市场波动率的增大而下降,股市波动幅度越大,商品期货与股价指数之间的相关性越低;这些都意味着商品期货对于资产配置有较好的风险分散价值。     

重庆现代服务业发展影响因素动态分析

现代服务业的发展是一个复杂的动态系统,在发展过程中受到很多因素的影响。通过建立现代服务业发展影响因素指标体系,本文运用灰色关联度动态分析其影响因素的主次关系,研究结果表明影响重庆现代服务业发展的主要因素为专业化、国际化、城市化、工业化、信息化,其次为标准化、市场化、交通基础、经济水平。     

Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: an application to modeling residential location choice behavior

This paper presents a modeling methodology capable of accounting for spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling applications. Many location choice (e.g., residential location, workplace location, destination location) modeling contexts involve choice sets where alternatives are spatially correlated with one another due to unobserved factors. In the presence of such spatial correlation, traditional discrete choice modeling methods that are often based on the assumption of independence among choice alternatives are not appropriate. In this paper, a Generalized Spatially Correlated Logit (GSCL) model that allows one to represent the degree of spatial correlation as a function of a multi-dimensional vector of attributes characterizing each pair of location choice alternatives is formulated and presented. The formulation of the GSCL model allows one to accommodate alternative correlation mechanisms rather than pre-imposing restrictive correlation assumptions on the location choice alternatives. The model is applied to the analysis of residential location choice behavior using a sample of households drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) data set. Model estimation results obtained from the GSCL are compared against those obtained using the standard multinomial logit (MNL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model where only correlations across neighboring (or adjacent) alternatives are accommodated. Model findings suggest that there is significant spatial correlation across alternatives that do not share a common boundary, and that the GSCL offers the ability to more accurately capture spatial location choice behavior.     

江苏省产业结构升级对就业结构的影响研究

作为全国的一个经济大省,受国际、国内形势的影响,2010年的江苏经济发展面临严峻的挑战。经济增长和充分就业是宏观经济发展的两大目标,而产业结构是产业之间和产业内部在社会再生产过程中形成的技术经济联系,是经济结构的核心,促进产业结构升级是实现经济增长的关键。本文运用灰色关联分析方法,从横向和纵向两个角度分析江苏省产业结构升级对就业结构的影响,在此基础上提出了促进就业结构优化的建议。