时变混合Copula模型的非参数估计及应用研究

针对传统动态混合Copula参数建模所存在的缺陷,本文提出了混合Copula的非参数建模方法,即不对模型的参数进行任何形式的设定,而假设参数为时间的函数,运用局部极大似然估计法来对参数进行估计。我们推导了非参数估计量的渐近正态性质、讨论了估计量的偏差与方差的大小,并运用交叉验证法给出最优带宽的选择。有限样本下的蒙特卡洛模拟显示,时变混合Copula的非参数估计具有良好的统计性质。最后,将该方法应用于股市间尾部相依特征的研究,发现我国股市与美、日、港、英股市间的左右尾部相依性呈现明显的时变性和非对称性。     

中国财政体制演进中的路径依赖和制度创新

财政体制是处理中央和地方各级政府之间财政关系的基本制度,是政府间财政关系的具体体现。建国后我国的财政体制伴随着经济体制的变迁经历了四个阶段：统收统支财政体制阶段、财政包干体制阶段、分税制财政体制阶段、公共财政体制阶段,每一次财政体制发展阶段的调整既蕴涵着新制度的创新,又有旧制度的保留,财政体制在渐近式制度变迁的推进过程中产生了路径依赖。要破解财政体制变迁中的路径依赖问题,完善现行公共财政体制,体制创新是必由之路。其基本思路是：推进财政制度的宪政变革,建立与完善本国的宪政体制,建构＂有限＂兼＂有效＂的现代政府;因地制宜实施政府层级改革,在区分经济发达和经济不发达地区的基础上,对政府架构进行变革;＂财政职能-财政体制-财政管理＂的改革三位一体协调共进,只有三者相互协调,才能保证财政体制改革的效果更加有效。     

技术能力、路径依赖与技术赶超研究

分析了技术领先地区（国）和技术落后地区（国）之间的技术溢出效应,基于Verspagen模型,建立了基于技术能力和路径依赖的技术赶超模型。研究表明,后发地区（国）实现技术差距缩小和技术赶超的关键不仅在于自身技术能力的提高,还要打破路径依赖的锁定效应;后发地区（国）不可忽视经济主体“有意识的行为”,实现从路径依赖到路径创新的演化。因此,后发地区（国）一方面要培育自身技术能力,另一方面要提高经济主体的创新意识和创新能力,尽快摆脱技术对路径依赖的负面影响,实现技术赶超。     

我国是否存在失业回滞效应？——基于第一、二代面板单位根检验的实证分析

就业是民生之本,然而自上世纪九十年代以来我国失业率逐年攀升,日益严峻的失业问题已引起政策当局和学术界的广泛关注与高度重视。有鉴于此,本文在第一代面板单位根检验的基础上,结合最新发展的第二代面板单位根检验方法,对我国是否存在失业回滞效应展开深入研究,进而为我国促进就业的政策选择提供重要的参考依据。研究结果表明,我国存在着显著的失业回滞效应,这就使得经济周期波动等外部冲击对我国失业产生永久性影响,从而在很大程度上造就了我国失业率逐年攀升、高居不下的局面,现阶段政府实施干预性的宏观调控政策显得十分必要。在此基础上,本文对降低乃至消除失业回滞效应、完善我国治理失业的宏观调控机制提出了若干政策建议。     

中国粮食产品进出口情况与国内粮食价格的相关性分析

本文以玉米、小麦、稻谷和大豆四种具有典型代表意义的粮食作物为例,分析了我国粮食进出口情况与国内粮价的关系。结果认为,除大豆外,我国粮食作物的进出口情况是由市场主导,政府同时起到了一定的影响作用。因此,我国粮食进出口格局的改变是粮价涨跌的结果。国内粮价的涨跌主要是国内供需关系改变导致的。     

Towards an understanding of attraction in buyer–supplier relationships

This paper explores how firms are attracted to one another within buyer–supplier dyads. It draws attention to ways of managing in a relational mode as an alternative to managing in a controlling mode. This study argues that in order to improve value creation and value transfer in buyer–supplier relationships it is not enough to optimize and coordinate management and control systems. Following Dwyer et al. [Dwyer, R., Schurr, P.H. and Oh, S. (1987). Developing buyer–seller relationships. Journal of Marketing, 51: 11–27.], it argues that mutual attraction is important in developing relationships. It is also argued that this can be achieved through a range of perceptual approaches and actions, which enhance performance between the parties involved. A conceptual model of attraction is developed with theoretical underpinnings in social exchange theory. It proposes three behavioral constraints: expected value, trust, and dependence. These components of attraction interact to draw dyadic parties closer together or push them apart. Finally, implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Joint and interactive effects of trust and (inter) dependence on relational behaviors in long-term channel dyads

The authors investigate the effects of trust on the relational behaviors of firms in long-term channel dyads across different interdependence structures. Based on the long-term nature of the empirical setting, trust is posited to exert a positive effect on the emergence of relational behaviors in all interdependence conditions. This positive effect of trust is hypothesized to be stronger in highly and symmetrically interdependent channel dyads than in low-interdependence-type symmetric dyads. In addition, for both relatively more dependent and relatively less dependent members of asymmetric dyads, the effect size of trust is hypothesized to increase as the perceived level of interdependence asymmetry increases. Data collected from automobile dealers in Turkey reveal that trust in the supplier has the strongest positive effect on the relational behaviors of dealers in asymmetric dealer-supplier dyads that perceive themselves relatively less dependent than their suppliers. For relatively more dependent dealers, trust is found to exert a modest positive effect. In symmetrically interdependent dealer-supplier dyads, trust exerts a modest positive effect on dealer relational behaviors in the low mutual dependence condition, and this effect size reduces to the point of nonsignificance in the high mutual dependence condition. Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.     

The interplay of task allocation patterns and governance mechanisms in industrial distribution channels

Task allocation involves the placement and performance of distribution subtasks among participants on an on-going basis in the channel. The authors offer an extended conceptualization of task allocation and examine its interplay in varying environmental conditions with shared decision making, pseudo-vertical integration, and dependence. They test the hypothesized relationships with three-stage least squares regression on a sample of farm equipment dealers. Results show that contractually based pseudo-vertical integration facilitates task allocation and, in turn, enlarged dealer task allocation patterns result in pseudo-vertical integration. Firm size has a significant influence on pseudo-vertical integration. In turbulent environments, dealers rely more heavily on shared decision making to allocate tasks than they do in stable environments. Although dependence increases pseudo-vertical integration, its effects on other factors are minimal. The results suggest that task allocation is an important construct that relates to several commonly observed channel characteristics.     

对我国外贸"贫困化增长"的再分析

本文根据"贫困化增长"的前提条件,对我国外贸是否存在贫困化增长进行了探索,得出了我国并不存在贫困化增长的现象,最后根据我国现阶段的具体情况,提出了一些防范出现贫困化增长的措施.     

资产组合风险度量与选择之文献述评

根据资产组合理论的本质,理解和掌握资产组合理论具有重要的意义。本文主要从风险度量方法比较、现实金融资产收益的实际分布与相关性、以及金融资产收益的动态变化特征等角度,对资产组合风险度量与选择的相关文献进行回顾与评述。