China's Bilateral Currency Swap Lines

We study the determinants of China's bilateral local currency swap lines that were established following the recent global finance crisis. It is found that economic factors, political considerations and institutional characteristics, including trade intensity, economic size, strategic partnership, free trade agreements, corruption and stability, affect the decision to sign a swap line agreement. Once a swap line agreement decision is made, the size of the swap line is then mainly affected by trade intensity, economic size and the presence of a free trade agreement. The results are quite robust with respect to the choices of the Heckman two‐stage framework or the proportional hazard model. The gravity effect captured by distances between China and its counterparts, if present, is mainly observed during the early part of the sample period under consideration.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON THE HECKMAN CURVE

The Heckman Curve characterizes the rate of return to public investments in human capital as rapidly diminishing with age. For the disadvantaged, it describes investments early in the life course as having significantly higher rates of return compared to later in life. This paper assesses the Heckman Curve using estimates of program benefit cost ratios from the Washington State Institute for Public Policy. We find no support for the claim that social policy programs targeted early in the life course have the largest benefit cost ratios, or that on average the benefits of adult programs are less than the cost of the intervention.     

Health and environmental consciousness,costs of behaviour and the purchase of organic food

This paper examines environmental and health consciousness, as well as behavioural costs and their effects on the purchase of organic products. The consumption of organic products is regarded as an investment in individual health. The low‐cost hypothesis takes environmental attitudes and behavioural costs into account and is applied to organic food consumption. The survey conducted in three German cities in 2006 using self‐administered questionnaires (n = 521) does not investigate willingness to pay but rather self‐reported behaviour. The results of the regressions using the Heckman correction show that income does not affect the regularity of organic food consumption but that it does influence individual expenditure on organic food. Furthermore, there is an inverted u‐shaped relation between age and the purchase of organic products. Although health consciousness has a stronger association with organic food consumption than does environmental concern, the interaction between behavioural costs and health or environmental consciousness shows no effect. Thus, the low‐cost hypothesis is not supported.     

Racial/Ethnic disparities in high return investment ownership: a Heckman selection model

This study investigates racial/ethnic differences in high return investment ownership in the U.S. Households with low levels of financial assets might not be able to meaningfully make investment choices, so a Heckman two-stage selection model was used to separate the minimum asset level status from the allocation decision, specifically in whether households owned at least one high return investment. We found that households with White respondents were more likely than households with Black and Hispanic respondents to have adequate financial assets for investment. Conditional on having adequate financial assets, and controlling for household characteristics and financial literacy, White households were more likely to own high return investments than Black, Hispanic and Asian/other households. Policies to nudge households to invest some wealth in high return investment assets would benefit minority households.     

Spatial disaggregation patterns and structural determinants of job flows: an empirical analysis

The paper investigates the changes in job creation and destruction flows at a very disaggregated level of analysis. We analyse whether job flows at lower levels of spatial aggregation display regularities that are in line with national ones in a bid to disentangle the role of labour market institutions. Using a unique database of the population of firms in Trentino (a north‐eastern province of Italy) from 1991 to 2001, we find that: (1) job flows show a ‘fractal’ tendency, i.e. many regularities appear to be scale invariant (magnitude of flow and persistence) and that job flow magnitude is in line with the average values for Italy; (2) there are some qualifications to their ‘fractality’: the contribution of entrant firms to the job creation process is lower than the corresponding contribution at national level, as is the share of job destruction accounted for by exiting firms; and (3) firm size and age influence job flows.     

农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响研究——以江西省农户调查为例

随着中国市场经济的繁荣发展,农产品市场化程度不断提高,土地资源作为农业生产最重要的物质基础,农业经营者在一定的制度环境约束下将土地围绕外部利润进行博弈,选择更加有利的土地经营方式,成为土地流转的主要驱动力。文章利用江西省834份农户调查样本数据,运用Heckman两阶段模型实证分析了农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为的影响。研究结果表明农产品市场化对农户土地流入行为存在显著的影响,主要表现在离农贸市场距离、农产品销售比例等变量上。另外,农业劳动时间比、土地细碎化与户主年龄、性别、教育年限、务农年限及5年内担任村干部亲属的人数、参加农村合作社等因素均对农户土地流入行为产生不同程度影响。基于此,该文对如何有效引导与推进农村土地市场化流转提出了加快农贸市场超市化改造,完善农产品流通模式;建立健全农村社会保障体系,替代土地的社会保障功能;大力发展农村教育,提高农业经营者的文化素质与受教育水平;鼓励农户在自愿基础上成立土地股份型农民专业合作社,引导农民由传统的产销合作向新型的产权合作方向发展等政策建议。     

地铁建设与交通限行对于城市空气质量影响效应的比较——地方政府实施“疏”“堵”政策之争

我国诸多城市面临严重的环境压力问题，决策者进行了多种手段的尝试，譬如通过发展地铁缓解交通压力，或是出台限制私家车出行的政策，这两种手段可以视作为一项"准自然实验"。通过对两类政策的实施效果进行比较分析，并对两类政策的协同性进行检验，结果发现解决交通环境问题的疏通类政策（地铁）更为有利，但作用效果会逐步减弱，限行政策对空气质量的影响有限，但对一些城市而言，两类手段共同实施的效果会更为突出，决策者应控制好两类手段实施的力度与协同性作用。     

Customer defection due to service elimination and post-elimination customer behavior: An empirical investigation in telecommunications

Service industries require rapid innovations in their service portfolios to gain and maintain competitive advantages. Service elimination is a potential tool for portfolio renewal, though it might threaten increased defection rates. To contribute to both service elimination and customer defection literature, this paper proposes a model of customer responses to service elimination, with practical implications for decision-makers in rapidly innovating telecommunication markets.In particular, the main study, conducted in the context of Hungary’s telecommunications sector, reveals that customers’ tenure, usage intensity, and age reduce the negative effects of a price increase on their defection; the price increase, degree to which customers interact with service providers, customer defection, and competitive effects in turn increase post–service elimination usage intensity.These findings suggest implementation strategies that can reduce customer defection following price increase due to service elimination, by focusing on new customers, light users, and the quality of customer interactions.     

Explaining destinations and volumes of international arms transfers: A novel network Heckman selection model

What determines the volumes of international weapon transfers? And why do countries establish such arms trading relationships in the first place? We propose an innovative statistical strategy that builds on the gravity approach and combines a Heckman model with a network analysis. This allows us, for the first time, to analyze the impact of network structures on both the extensive and the intensive margins of the international arms trade simultaneously. We argue that the structure of the arms transfer network conveys important information for exporting and importing countries. Therefore, past topological properties of the trade network play a central role in its future evolution. Using data on the trade of major conventional weapons between 1955 and 2018, our estimation results and out-of-sample predictions show that network structures have considerable explanatory power with respect to the creation of trade links. They are far less relevant for the explanation of trade volumes, which are mainly determined by demand factors.