外贸可持续发展的战略研究——以湖南省为例

对外贸易是推动湖南经济快速增长的重要力量.面对当前国内外形势发生的一系列重大变化,外贸发展已进入重要的战略转型期.湖南要实现对外贸易发展的新突破,在更大范围、更广领域和更高层面上参与国内外竞争,就必须加快转变外贸增长方式,可持续发展的外贸发展方式是湖南走向成功的必经之路.本文在介绍新世纪以来湖南对外贸易发展基本状况的基础上,结合运用图表数据分析,并运用经济管理相关理论知识对湖南近年来外贸可持续发展状况进行综合评价分析,最后就湖南外贸可持续发展的战略选择提出相关建议.     

Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices

This paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model for UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The estimated VAR indicates that the nominal variables are characterised by I(2) trends, and that a linear combination of these processes cointegrate to I(1). This supports an analysis in which I(1) and I(2) restrictions are imposed. A key finding is that an increase in real import prices reduces productivity adjusted real wages, such that the change in domestic inflation is moderated. This may explain why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged.

产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

知识产权保护、进口贸易与创新型领军企业创新

本文首先从理论上分析了知识产权保护通过进口贸易影响企业创新的作用机制,随后,利用中国海关贸易数据与中国工业企业数据,实证分析了知识产权保护对企业创新的影响,并检验了知识产权保护通过进口贸易影响企业创新的作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)知识产权保护水平提高,能够显著促进创新型领军企业的创新。(2)从影响机制来看,知识产权保护水平提高,能够显著提升民营企业、专利密集型行业企业以及出口企业的进口规模,进而促进创新;能够显著提升民营企业和专利密集型行业企业的进口产品种类,进而促进创新;能够显著提升出口企业的进口产品质量,进而促进创新。中国正处在实施创新驱动发展战略的重要阶段,应重视并充分发挥知识产权保护与进口贸易对我国企业创新的促进作用。     

Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market

Using the Japanese firm/establishment-level census data, we investigate the impact of the Chinese import penetration on employment in Japan. We found negative impacts of the Chinese import penetration on total employment, especially in industries producing competing products to Chinese imports, and a positive impact of the import penetration in the industries from which firms purchase their inputs (upstream import penetration). The negative impacts are mainly driven by firms’ exit from the market while positive impacts are enjoyed by surviving firms. We did not find any significant impacts of the penetration in the industries to which firms sell their products (downstream penetration).     

Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?

This paper investigates the impact of US Export‐Import Bank (EXIM ) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECA s). We employ a gravity framework on a country‐industry‐year‐level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECA s or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.     

聚丙烯纤维对混凝土抗氯离子渗透性的研究

试验表明,聚丙烯纤维能够增加低强度混凝土和低流动性混凝土的抗氯离子性能,但同时会降低高强度混凝土的抗氯离子渗透性能和大流动性混凝土的抗氯离子性能,文章分析了其作用机理。     

Broadband penetration,financial development,and economic growth nexus: evidence from the Arab League countries

This paper examines the mutual relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth in the 22 Arab League countries for the period between 2001 and 2013. Financial development (represented by broad money supply, claims on the private sector, domestic credit to the private sector, domestic credit provided by the banking sector, market capitalization, turnover ratio, and traded stocks) is assessed both individually, and by a composite index. Our results reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth. Additionally, we use a panel vector autoregression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality between the covariates. The most important insight of this study is the presence of bidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration in the long run. In addition, we find that financial development together with broadband penetration Granger-cause economic growth in the long run.     

中美两国经济周期同步性研究

改革开放三十年以来,中芙两国经贸往来日益密切.从两国经济周期的同步程度来看,这三十年中,两国经济周期同步波动主要出现在2000年以后,我国进出口、投资等指标与美国消费之间的高度相关以及美国进出口与我国投资的高度相关是这种同步性得以实现的主要原因之一.中关两国经济周期的同步运动,主要源于美国经济周期对中国经济的影响.     

行业标准化对中国进出口贸易的影响研究

以1993~2008年中国钢铁、煤炭、服装、食品加工、家电、机械制造六个行业的行业标准数目为基础,利用面板数据变截据模型分析行业标准化对进出口贸易的总体影响,通过面板数据变系数模型分析行业标准化对其进出口贸易额的影响。结果表明,我国的行业标准化对进出口贸易均存在正面影响,行业标准对钢铁、煤炭行业的进出口及对家电的出口均产生负面影响,对服装、食品加工、机械制造及家电的出口均产生正面影响。