What drives long-term capital flows? A theoretical and empirical investigation

What drives capital inflows in the long run? This paper illustrates how capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most intriguing prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic saving should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that capital should flow to countries where it is most scarce. Using foreign debt data from 1970 to 1998, I find qualitative and quantitative evidence that supports these predictions.     

Which consumers are ready for consumer-directed health plans?

Consumer Directed Health Plans (CDHPs) are new and increasingly popular insurance products in the United States that aim to increase consumer involvement in health care decision-making. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we examine characteristics of employees in a large firm that voluntarily enroll in CDHPs. We find salaried and hourly high deductible CDHP enrollees to be substantially healthier and have higher educational attainment than Preferred Provider Organizations (PPO) enrollees. There was less favorable selection into a more popular, lower deductible CDHP.     

Time preference and savings behaviour

A number of studies have examined various determinants of savings rate. This article contributes to this literature by empirically testing whether the time preference (discounting behaviour) is another important determinant of savings rate. To this end, we estimate the hyperbolic Euler equation using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine whether the short-run discount factor can account for savings behaviour. The empirical results show that people exhibit short-run patience (impatience) when savings rate increases (decreases), which is in line with the theoretical prediction. This result implies that the time preference also plays an important role in determining savings behaviour. Various sets of instruments and different sample periods do not reverse the main finding.     

A rational,economic model of paygo tax rates

We argue that paygo rates are determined by a representative agent and a benevolent government jointly maximizing the expected life-time utility of the agent. The distributions of labor and capital income are calculated from national data on real GDP, real wages and the real return to capital since 1950. With uniform risk aversion, predicted rates explain 83% of the variance of observed rates. The globalization of capital markets would lead to convergence of paygo rates. Our results are immune to crises like 2008.     

Rationally inattentive macroeconomic wedges

This paper argues that the solution to a dynamic optimization problem of consumption and labor under finite information-processing capacity can simultaneously explain the intertemporal and intratemporal labor wedges. It presents a partial equilibrium model where a representative risk adverse consumer chooses information about wealth with limited attention. The paper compares ex-post realizations of models with finite and infinite capacity. The model produces macroeconomic wedges and measures of elasticity consistent with the literature. These findings suggest that aconsumption-labor model with information-processing constraints can explain the difference between predicted and observed consumption and employment behavior.     

医疗保险与消费:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据

本文利用农村引入新型农村合作医疗这一政策变化来研究医疗保险的获得对农村居民消费的影响。结果表明,新农合使得非医疗支出类的家庭消费增加了约5.6个百分点。这一正向作用随医疗保险保障水平的提高而增强,而且在没有医疗支出的家庭中仍然存在。同时,新农合对消费的正向影响在收入较低或健康状况较差的家庭中更强。这些结果都与医疗保险减少了预防性储蓄的假说相一致。另外本文发现,新农合的效果随农户在这个项目中的经历而变化。实际上只有在那些有村民获得保险补偿的村子,保险对消费的正向影响才显著,而且在这些村子中,新农合对新加入农户的消费的影响明显小于对参合一年以上农户的消费的影响。     

从储蓄存款的“笼中虎”分析中国储蓄存款安全边界问题

居民储蓄存款作为社会稳定与投资资金重要来源,对于国民经济的发展和社会经济稳定有着十分重要的意义。作者认为储蓄存款存在一个合理的区间与安全边界,在这个区间内储蓄存款的增长有利于促进经济的发展,但是超过了这个边界可能会引发重大危机。国内外经济发展情况表明,由储蓄存款的挤兑引发的商业银行倒闭和传导的金融经济危机事件时有发生。文章从"笼中虎"现象切入,采取理论与实践相结合、因素分析法、对比法等方法分析影响储蓄存款安全的主要影响因素,通过关联指标的监测与指标体系的设置,划分出安全、较安全和不安全的数量和质量边界,从而对我国目前的储蓄安全形势进行判断,提出相应的对策。     

中国邮政储蓄银行的市场定位

1986年以来，我国邮政金融经历了特殊的发展之旅。中国邮政储蓄银行的获准营业，标示着我国邮政体制及邮政金融改革终于有了一个方向性的重大成果。中国邮政储蓄银行应基于既有优势，借鉴邮政金融的国际经验，坚持平民化的经营风格，实行同质化和差异化并重的竞争策略，构建体现邮政金融特色的经营体系，提升对外合作的有效性。     

Effects of degrees of acceptance and awareness on a rate system for lowering mobile bills

South Korea has the highest mobile bills among the OECD countries, and there is strong public demand in the country to reduce expenditure amounts. In response, the South Korean government and mobile carriers have implemented measures such as a “Smart Choice Service,” data-centered plan, and 20% discount scheme in order to reduce mobile bills. However, it is unclear whether these systems have actually led to such a reduction. The present study analyzes quantitatively how people's acceptance and awareness toward rate systems reduce or do not reduce mobile bills, based on the results of a survey conducted here. More specifically, to solve the endogeneity problem of saving behavior's effect on mobile bills, the study adopts the instrumental variables of degree of acceptance and awareness of systems relating to mobile bills. The results show that acceptance and awareness of the system do affect savings behavior and thus mobile bills. If the degree of savings behavior (affected by acceptance and awareness) goes up one step on a seven-point Likert-type scale, there is an average 8.28% savings effect on mobile bills. Thus, this study shows that degrees of acceptance and awareness of the rate system do affect mobile bills.     

THE EFFECTS OF PENSION FUNDS ON MARKETS PERFORMANCE: A REVIEW

The worldwide reforming process of pension systems triggered by the demographic transition and globalization has led several countries to implement multi‐pillar pension systems and enhance pension funds. For this reason the studies on the effects that pension funds exert on markets performance have been flourishing in the last decades. In this paper, we provide an updated review of the empirical advances in this field of study, with particular focus on the effects that pension funds produce on labour markets, financial markets and economic growth.