契约储蓄对金融市场的潜在影响

契约储蓄机构包括养老基金和寿险公司。养老基金和寿险公司的特殊之处在于他们的债务期限为长期结构。这类储蓄机构的投资可以使金融市场上长期资金的供给增加,也由于其投资的长期性,使证券市场的效率、透明度和竞争程度整体上会得到提高,交易成本趋于下降。此外,使银行的行为更加理性化、长期化,从而使得金融市场上的资金需求方企业可以以更低的成本获得更多的长期资金,促进整个金融体系的健康稳定发展。     

储蓄率与杠杆率:一个U型关系

近年来,中国呈现典型的“高储蓄—高杠杆”特征,高储蓄率也被认为是中国杠杆率偏高的主要原因之一。能否通过降低储蓄率的方式来去杠杆成为了广泛讨论的问题。为此,本文构建了一个含有融资约束的动态宏观模型,研究了储蓄率对杠杆率的影响机理。并且,基于41个代表性经济体1966-2017年的面板数据,对储蓄率与杠杆率之间的关系进行了实证分析,主要有两点研究发现:(1)虽然高储蓄率会导致高杠杆率,但是储蓄率与杠杆率不是简单的正相关关系,而是呈现显著的U型关系。结合测算的U型曲线拐点值与中国实际情况,预计储蓄率下降在降低杠杆率方面的作用效果有限。(2)高杠杆下,较高的储蓄率可以有效降低发生金融危机的概率,而储蓄率下降则会加大发生金融危机的概率。基于此,本文认为中国不能通过降低储蓄率的方式来降低杠杆率,反而需要对近年来储蓄率下滑的现象予以高度重视,从而更好地守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。     

全球经济应该如何调整

失衡与调整是新世纪全球经济最引人注目的话题。本文认为,失衡的错综复杂性,决定了全球经济调整将是一条缓慢、长期和艰辛之路;全球经济调整的关键是对储蓄投资失衡关系的调整;为避免全球经济硬着陆的发生,美国及其他主要国家应主动承担起调整的责任;中国应调整出口导向战略,把经济增长更多地建立在依靠内需的基础上。     

The Costs of Implementing Regulatory Changes: The Truth in Savings Act

Although the cost of banking regulation has been a controversial issue for many years, little empirical evidence is available. This study provides new evidence on the effect of the amount of required changes on start-up compliance costs, using data from a survey of the costs of implementing the Truth in Savings Act. The finding, that start-up compliance costs were insensitive to the extent of changes required to implement the regulation, has important implications for regulatory policy. It suggests that a general requirement to alter an infrequent practice may impose nonnegligible costs on all banks, not only those banks that must make substantive changes in their practices. This finding argues against a policy of making frequent minor revisions in regulations. Instead, a policy of delaying revisions until some number have been accumulated and then making infrequent major revisions of regulations may reduce implementation costs by allowing banks to exploit economies of changing practices.     

Why do Households Leave Money on the Table? The Case of Subsidized Pension Products

Abstract

Many individuals only save money in their savings account for their old-age provision rather than investing in more profitable asset classes. That is despite the existence of subsidized pension products, for which smallest contributions can be made monthly, which guarantee the capital preservation, and which offer higher expected returns than saving money in bank deposits. We investigate the determinants that affect individuals’ decision to leave money on the table by not investing in subsidized pension products. Our results show that financial literacy and financial advice are positively related to holding such pension products. In that, our results emphasize the role of financial literacy and financial advisors for sound financial decision-making in increasingly complex financial markets.     

The asymmetric response of the economy to tax changes before and after 1980

This paper explores the asymmetry in the response of GDP to tax shocks before and after 1980 as first noted in Romer and Romer (2010). I find that there are two main reasons why output responds more strongly to tax shocks before 1980 than after. First, a greater sensitivity of the effect of tax shocks on output to the state of the economy before 1980 explains about half of the difference between periods. Second, before 1980 the effect of tax shocks on households is indirect and lowers total personal income and nondurable goods consumption. After 1980 tax shocks affect personal tax payments directly, causing disposable income and savings to change. This finding affirms Romer and Romer’s hypothesis that households are more likely to consumption smooth. However, I find that households after 1980 consumption smooth in response to a change in their direct tax burden not, as Romer and Romer posit, because they have greater access to financial services.     

How to achieve cost savings and strategic performance in purchasing simultaneously: A knowledge-based view

The competitive advantage purchasing provides has been debated for decades. For a novel perspective we derive a theoretical framework grounded in the knowledge-based view in order to examine how purchasing knowledge and purchasing integration impact cost and strategic performance. The derived hypotheses are tested based on extensive secondary data from a large European multinational utility company. The 179 studied ‘purchasing-internal client relationships’ contain real contracted savings data and internal client ratings of purchasing knowledge, purchasing integration and strategic purchasing performance. We show that purchasing knowledge is a major antecedent for both savings and strategic purchasing performance. This effect is further amplified by purchasing integration. With this study, we extend the understanding of the purchasing knowledge–performance link. We conclude that purchasing knowledge becomes particularly valuable when combined with other functions' processes through purchasing integration. This causal chain is also supported through general knowledge-based view theory. Moreover, we provide numerical evidence of the value of knowledge creation and integration processes to purchasing professionals in our managerial implications based on results obtained from actual purchasing savings data.     

On the optimal size of a joint savings association

We develop a formula for the optimal size of a joint savings association between individuals who share the same financial goal and who can save towards that goal at the same rate. Our motivating example and the core of our analysis is a Rotating Savings and Credit Association (ROSCA). We measure the efficiency of a ROSCA by the expected waiting time that it takes a participant to attain his goal when no participant reneges on his commitment to contribute to the common fund, and when each of the participants receives (once) the funds needed to meet his goal. Given this criterion, we define the optimal size of a ROSCA as the number of participants that results in the minimal expected waiting time. We show that an optimal size of a ROSCA exists, that it is limited, and that it is a multiple of the number of time periods that it takes an individual to save on his own. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that when treated as a function of the size of a ROSCA, the expected waiting time is not monotonic when the size builds up from an individual saving on his own to the optimal size. A similar result obtains when we study cases where a ROSCA is enlarged beyond the optimal size. Our findings help explain the limited size as well as other features of ROSCAs observed in developing countries all over the world.     

What determines the profitability of banks? Evidence from Spain

This paper empirically analyses the factors that determine the profitability of Spanish banks for the period of 1999–2009. We conclude that the high bank profitability during these years is associated with a large percentage of loans in total assets, a high proportion of customer deposits, good efficiency and a low doubtful assets ratio. In addition, higher capital ratios also increase the bank’s return, but only when return on assets (ROA) is used as the profitability measure. We find no evidence of either economies or diseconomies of scale or scope in the Spanish banking sector. Finally, our study reveals differences in the performance of commercial and savings banks.     

广东邮电业发展的需求效应分析

经济社会的发展对邮电业的高速成长起着重要的支撑作用。本文以广东省宏观经济社会发展对邮电业的影响为研究对象,利用面板数据模型考察各经济社会变量对邮电业务的影响。实证结果表明,第三产业发展状况和区域开放度对邮电业的支撑和拉动作用最大。因此,建议各地在培育和支持邮电业发展的过程中,要努力调整产业结构,积极开展对外贸易,扩大开放。