失业问题的误区及调整

扩大就业是我国当前和今后长时期重大而艰巨的任务。党的十六大宣布，我国实行促进就业的长期战略和政策。但是，当前我国在理论、观念与政策上，对于失业问题存在着明显的误区，不走出这些误区，就难以顺利地实现我国扩大就业的重要战略任务。     

Globalisation and the European disease

Summary This paper analyses the impact of globalisation of economic relationships on the European labour market. The main finding is that Europe's unemployment problem is rooted in rigidities in the labour market itself, while the increasing importance of international trade should provide an opportunity to reduce long-term labour market slack. To reap the potential benefits in this respect, European governments would need to re-orient structural policies towards a better functioning of labour and product markets.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Economics Department, Paris. The author is indebted to several of his colleagues in the Economics Department — in particular Bob Ford, Katie Gordon, Wim Suyker, Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, and Nick Vanston — and two anonymous referees for their useful comments on an earlier draft. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Organisation or the governments of its member countries.     

Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is consistent with forward-looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives.     

Unemployment in Africa: A Fractional Integration Approach

This paper estimates long‐memory models to analyse the stochastic behaviour of unemployment in eleven African countries (Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia) from the 1960s until 2010. The empirical results provide very strong evidence of lack of mean reversion in all series under examination. This suggests that hysteresis models are the most relevant for the African experience (not surprisingly, given the rigidities in their labour markets). Therefore in such countries shocks hitting the unemployment series will have permanent effects, and policy makers should take appropriate action to reverse the effects of negative shocks.     

Offshoring and jobs: The myriad channels of influence

Offshoring reallocates jobs inside firms, between firms, and across sectors, affecting the economy-wide unemployment rate. We study these channels in a model with labor market frictions and two sectors—a differentiated-good sector comprising heterogeneous firms that can offshore, and a homogeneous-good sector. A decline in offshoring costs affects intrafirm and intrasectoral reallocation of jobs in the differentiated-good sector through a selection effect, a productivity effect, and a job-relocation effect. The key parameters determining the impact of offshoring on jobs at various margins, as well as on the economy-wide unemployment rate, are the elasticity of substitution between inputs, the elasticity of substitution between varieties of differentiated goods, and the elasticity of demand for differentiated goods as a whole. Changes in search frictions affect unemployment both directly and through their interaction with offshoring.     

Measuring digitization: A growth and welfare multiplier

Digitization encapsulates the social transformation triggered by the mass adoption of digital technologies that generate, process and transfer information. The digitization index introduces a global measure of national performance reflecting ubiquity, affordability, reliability, speed, usability and skills. Output and welfare rise with the index while manifesting increasing returns to scale some implications for ICT public policy are drawn from these findings.     

Alfred Kahler's Die Theorie der Arbeiterfreisetzung durch die Maschine : An Early Contribution to the Analysis of the Impact of Automation on Workers

This paper provides a critical assessment of Alfred Kahler's pioneering contribution to the analysis of the impact of automation on workers in his 1932 dissertation thesis Die Theorie der Arbeiterfreisetzung durch die Maschine (The theory of the displacement of the worker by the machine). Kahler's analysis is shown to be an elaboration on Ricardo's and Marx's approach to the analysis of the labour displacement and compensation process. It is also shown that the arithmetical 'circulation schemes' developed by Kahler can be interpreted as an early formulation of a closed (static) input-output model. In addition, the paper also examines Kahler's rudimentary discussion of the associated price model and of the choice of technique problem.     

Social tourism and self-efficacy: Exploring links between tourism participation,job-seeking and unemployment

Social tourism is assumed to provide important psychological benefits for economically and socially disadvantaged populations. This study examines empirically whether these individual benefits are associated with socioeconomic benefits to society by focusing on unemployed individuals. Psychological benefits are addressed in terms of self-efficacy, and socioeconomic benefits, in terms of job-search behaviour. Findings from mixed-methods data reveal that holidays create enabling environments, which bring about positive changes in participants’ self-efficacy, contributing to positive effects on their job-search behaviour. Positive effects are also identified with regard to behaviours towards alternative paths to employment, such as volunteering. Given that these behavioural changes comprise major determinants of reemployment, it is suggested that social tourism may hold potential for incorporation into existing unemployment policies.     

The challenges of global capitalism: unemployment and state workers' reactions and responses in post-reform China

As China enters the twenty-first year of reform, the success of its economic policies has been widely recognized. But what is also true is that economic reforms initiated in the past decades, particularly the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, have inevitably marginalized state workers - the 'masters of socialist China'. Workers in private and non-state sectors might have benefited from the economic reforms but state workers of most state-owned enterprises feel bitterly left behind. The aim of this article is to examine the perception of state workers of the causes of organizational difficulties, their worries in face of redundancy and their coping strategies. Observations made in this study are based on field interviews and questionnaire survey of 649 state workers in Beijing, Shenyang and Zhejiang from 1996 to 1999.