The link between unemployment and labor force participation rates in Japan: A regional perspective

This paper explores the co-integrating relationship between unemployment and the labor force participation rate in Japan from a regional perspective. The univariate co-integration tests indicate that the “no co-integration” hypothesis cannot be rejected in Northern-Kanto, Hokuriku and Kyusyu. Because the univariate co-integration approach might suffer from low power we employed a panel version of the co-integration test recently developed by Westerlund (2006) that also considers the possibility of multiple structural breaks in the level of individual co-integrating equations. The test results lend support for an overwhelmingly long-run relationship between the two variables across regions. Accordingly, this finding is not in line with the unemployment invariance hypothesis. As a result a nationally orientated employment policy aimed at improving the unemployment and labor force participation rates might be preferred over a region-specific employment policy in Japan.     

Downsizing, wage inequality and welfare in a developing economy

This paper focuses on the cost cutting effects of firm downsizing in a developing economy. Using a dualistic production structure to depict a developing economy, the impacts of downsizing on wage inequality and social welfare are examined. Downsizing is revealed to not only narrow the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor but also to raise the level of manufactured output and reduce the unemployment ratio in the urban sector. These effects improve the social welfare of the economy.     

Worker search effort as an amplification mechanism

It is well known that the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model exhibits a strong trade-off between cyclical unemployment fluctuations and the size of rents to employment. Introducing endogenous job search effort reduces the strength of the trade-off while bringing the model closer to the data. Ignoring worker search effort leads to a large upward bias in the elasticity of matches with respect to vacancies. Merging the American Time Use Survey and the Current Population Survey, new evidence in support of procyclical search effort is presented. Average search effort of the unemployed is subject to cyclical composition biases.     

A life-cycle model of unemployment and disability insurance

A general equilibrium life-cycle model is developed, in which individuals choose a sequence of saving and labor supply faced with search frictions and uncertainty in longevity, health status and medical expenditures. Unemployed individuals decide whether to apply for disability insurance (DI) benefits if eligible. We investigate the effects of cash transfer and in-kind Medicare component of the DI system on the life-cycle employment. Without Medicare benefits, DI coverage could fall significantly. We also study how DI interacts with reforms of Social Security and Medicare and find that DI enrollment amplifies the effects of reforms.     

美国对华贸易逆差对美国制造业失业率影响的实证分析

本文通过对大量经济数据的统计分析以及建立相关的经济计量模型,运用协整方法就美中贸易逆差是否是美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因进行实证分析.定量研究结果不但表明美中贸易逆差并非近年来美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因,而且还指出了造成美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因在于美国近几年来快速提高的生产率,以及美国对日本制造品出口额的大幅下降.最后本文给出了简要结论和相关建议.     

Fair wages, unemployment and technological change in a global economy

This paper analyzes the effects of global and national technological change on employment and relative wages in an integrated two-country world (“Europe” and “America”), where both countries are characterized by equilibrium unemployment due to fair wage constraints. The asymmetry between the countries arises from country-specific preferences towards wage inequality, with Europe's preferences being more egalitarian. Furthermore, we look at integration between this two-country world and a third country (“low-wage south”). We derive an analytical tool, the Virtual Integrated Equilibrium, that allows us to adapt Dixit and Norman's Integrated Equilibrium approach to a situation where both countries have endogenous unemployment levels.     

中国城镇的失业率究竟是多少

对于目前中国城镇失业率到底是多少,各界有各种不同的意见.作者认为,应当按照过去20多年中国城镇人口劳动参与率这个较为稳定的系数来推算,比较科学和客观,城镇人口劳动参与率应在55%水平上.按此推算,城镇失业人口加600万长期在家没有工作的职工,中国2002年的城镇劳动力失业率为12.44%,为3437万人.实际城镇人口劳动参与率曲线呈下滑趋势.中国如果按真实城镇失业率计算,2003年城镇需要就业和再就业的压力是4490万人,而不是劳动与社会保障部计算的2400万.中国未来18年中,就业和再就业压力最大的时期将是2003-2010年,2011-2015年次之,2015年以后就业和再就业压力将趋缓.期间,劳动力供给的最大来源为农村劳动力向城镇的转移,其次较难的是国有和集体企业结构调整需要再就业的劳动力,城镇本身新增劳动力就业的压力并不大;最保守估计,需要创造2.7亿多个就业机会,每年需要有1500万个工作岗位供城镇新增、农村向城镇转移和城镇下岗劳动力就业和再就业.     

失业保险金满足失业者需求影响因素的实证研究—基于对南京市朝天宫街道的调查

以南京市朝天宫街道11个社区失业居民的访谈数据为基础,使用Logistic模型,对影响失业保险金满足失业者需求的因素进行了实证研究。研究表明,工作经历越多、领取金额越高,失业者的需求越能得到满足;性别、领取时间对失业保险金的满足能力产生负向的影响。基于此,提出劳动保障部门应鼓励失业者积极寻找工作或创业、失业保险金应作及时调整的政策建议。     

Does unemployment insurance crowd out home production?

In this paper, we study the interaction between self insurance and public insurance. In particular, we provide evidence on a negative correlation between unemployment insurance benefits and home production using the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the state-level unemployment insurance data of the U.S. The empirical results suggest that moving to a two times more generous state would decrease time spent on home production about 22% for the unemployed. Then, we pursue a quantitative assessment of this empirical finding using a dynamic competitive equilibrium model in which households do home production as well as market production. The model is able to generate the empirical facts regarding the unemployment benefits and home production. The fact that unemployment insurance benefits crowd out home production is interpreted as a substitution between the two insurance mechanisms against loss of earnings during unemployment spells.     

Productivity insurance: The role of unemployment benefits in a multi-sector model

We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receives idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits – productivity insurance while unemployed. For plausible parameterizations unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. In addition, the welfare-maximizing benefit level decreases as moving costs increase.