基于CA模型的城市边缘区土地利用演变模拟——以广州市花都区为例

研究目的：探索土地利用的多地类CA模拟方法,并掌握城市边缘区土地利用变化规律。研究方法：选取典型城市边缘区 —— 广州市花都区为研究区域,利用C#语言结合ArcEngine GIS平台编程进行花都区土地利用演变CA模拟研究。以不同时间研究区土地利用图为基础数据,比较研究期内各地类的变化数量与方向以确定地类转换之间的优先级,并确定各地类的转换概率阈值。然后利用蒙特卡罗方法结合控制因素进行判断,最终确定元胞的转化状态。研究结果：模拟结果表明,2000 — 2005年间,新增建设用地分布在除北部山区以外的所有区域,但主要集中在城市中心区域,农用地主要分布在西南部和东北部,而且破碎化程度越来越高。在流向上,仍然有不少数量的农用地（主要为耕地和林地）转向建设用地。与实际情况相比,模拟的数量精度为84.8%,位置精度为71.3%。研究结论：研究结果表明此方法便于理解与操作,同时模拟精度较高。     

Developing energy conservation and carbon reduction indicators for the hotel industry in Taiwan

This study develops and weights energy conservation and carbon reduction (ECCR) indicators for the hotel industry in Taiwan to create an instrument to help address climate change. Eighteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior hotel managers, environmental specialists, and government officials to identify the preliminary ECCR framework. An expert panel then was invited to review the structure of ECCR criteria and the compiled criteria in a structure for item modification. An analytic network process questionnaire survey was employed to determine the relative weights of the criteria. The data analysis reveals seven categories in the ECCR framework: communication and participation, top management commitment, energy, water, waste, building, and purchasing. A total of 32 indicators were identified and prioritized in terms of their relative importance to ECCR contributions. The results of this study suggest that the success of ECCR implementation depends primarily on management support and staff engagement. Hotel operators can improve their environmental management by initiating ECCR practices based on the proposed ECCR indicators.     

桂西北喀斯特山区土地用地结构变化及驱动因素分析

利用土地利用变化幅度、单一土地利用动态度、综合土地利用动态度、土地利用程度综合指数等模型,对河池市土地利用动态变化分析,采用因素相关性分析法对其驱动因素进行分析;2001-2007年农业用地面积减少,园地面积逐步增长,建设用地面积一直呈现增长态势,累计增长量达5990．380hm2,2001年、2004年、2007年河池市土地利用程度综合指数分别为178．56,178．80,178．41,土地呈现从高度开发利用向合理调整转变的趋势;政策因素、经济和交通的快速发展、人口增长等都是促进土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。     

Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation*

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.     

关于加快吉林省林业经济发展的思考

对吉林省实现由林业资源大省向林业经济强省的基本情况、取得成效以及主要做法进行了归纳和提炼,并在此基础上对进一步加快吉林省林业经济发展进行了思考,提出了推进林业综合改革,抓紧建立责权利清晰的林业产权制度和经营制度等思路及建议。     

西部地区资源型产业结构变动实证分析

资源型产业是西部地区重要的支柱产业。西部地区10多年来资源型产业结构变动程度较大,并与其产出增长较为协调,其资源型产业内部结构升级明显,加工日益高度化;与东中部地区资源型产业结构相似度呈现上升趋势。西部地区资源型产业的发展应依靠西部地区的资源优势,不断提高产业的专业化程度,资源型产业在地理上不断地聚集。     

旅游文学遗产视野下的庐山风景区变迁

丰富的旅游文学作品是庐山世界遗产的重要组成部分,标记了庐山旅游发展变迁的历史信息。庐山旅游文学可划分为魏晋南北朝、隋唐五代、宋元、明清和民国5个发展阶段,清代出现的景点数量最为可观,表明庐山的旅游发展已经进入了较为成熟的阶段。庐山旅游景点的空间位置表现为2种趋势,一是扩散化趋势,由早期的若干点扩散到民国时期的面,由早期的山麓向山顶扩散;二是集聚化趋势,由魏晋南北时的带状分布发展到民国时期的立体格局。     

Procedural justice,ethical climate and service outcomes in restaurants

The literature suggests that ethical climate may actually contribute to organizational success by enhancing employee performance. Ethical climate is considered to be highly relevant to the hospitality industry, since it enhances service-providers’ contact with customers. This study reinforces previous researches by exploring the relationships between ethical climate, service, and customer satisfaction in restaurants. We have also examined the relationship between ethical climate and the fair treatment of employees by an organization. The study was conducted in 20 restaurants, with 171 employees and 103 customers. Data were obtained from employees, customers, and “mystery shoppers”. As expected, ethical climate was found to be related to service performance which, in turn, was found to fully mediate the relationship of ethical climate with customer satisfaction. Ethical climate was also found to correlate positively with procedural justice. Our results indicate the benefits of the ethical message conveyed through consistent managerial practices in service organizations.     

An assessment of the economic and environmental potential of biomass production in an agricultural region

The establishment of deep-rooted perennial species and their processing for biomass-based products such as renewable energy can have benefits for both local and global scale environmental objectives. In this study, we assess the potential economic viability of biomass production in the South Australian River Murray Corridor and quantify the resultant benefits for local and global scale environmental objectives. We model the spatial distribution of economically viable biomass production in a Geographic Information System and quantify the model sensitivity and uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis. The total potentially viable area for biomass production under the Most Likely Scenario is 360,728 ha (57.7% of the dryland agricultural area), producing over 3 million tonnes of green biomass per annum, with a total Net Present Value over 100 years of A$ 88 million. The salinity in the River Murray could be reduced by 2.65 EC (μS/cm) over a 100-year timeframe, and over 96,000 ha of land with high wind erosion potential could be stabilised over a much shorter period. With sufficient generating capacity, our Most Likely Scenario suggests that economically viable biomass production could reduce carbon emissions by over 1.7 million tonnes per annum through the production of renewable energy and a reduced reliance on coal-based electricity generation. Our analyses suggest that biomass production is a potentially viable alternative agricultural system that can have substantial local scale environmental benefits with complimentary global scale benefits for climate change mitigation.     

Assessing the growth-inducing impact of the Appalachian Development Highway System in southern Ohio: Did policy promote change?

The concept of “inducing growth” is typically considered an adverse consequence of a project on the land use system. In certain instances, however, the desire to induce growth and foster land use change is a focus of land use policy. Such is the example of the Appalachian Highway Development System (AHDS) program initiated by the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) during the late 1960s. With the goal of providing highway infrastructure to improve assess to a geographically isolated and historically impoverished region, the ADHS has added nearly 3000 miles of highway to the Appalachian landscape. The degree to which highway investment has contributed to regional growth remains a controversial point and tractable methods to quickly assess landscape change given a project of this magnitude are elusive. In this paper a portion of the AHDS trending through southern Ohio is examined using data acquired from the Landsat series of satellites. Beginning with a pre-highway condition in 1976, a 26 year time horizon, concluding in 2002, was analyzed based on a post-classification change detection methodology. Results of this investigation revealed slight, yet significant, levels of urban expansion within a 10 km corridor along the path of AHDS Corridor D/State Route 32. Beyond this buffer zone the land use system evidenced more stability, suggesting that as distance increased from Corridor D/State Route 32, reduced accessibility also reduced the attractiveness of land for urban uses. Relating these results back to the infrastructure investment policies of the ARC demonstrates that growth did result from the construction of Corridor D and supports previous findings that land development based on highway construction is extremely time-sensitive.