财政收入、财政支出与居民消费率

从财政政策收入分配功能的角度就财政收支对居民消费率的影响进行了理论分析,并采用全国数据和省级面板数据就财政收支对居民消费率的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国过高的税负率对我国居民消费率的提高有负面影响,以间接税为主的财政收入结构不能实现社会财富再分配的均等化,不利于促进我国居民消费率的提高。财政消费性支出对居民消费具有挤出效应,而保障性支出有助于提高居民消费率。因此改变财政收支结构,强化财政收支的收入再分配功能是提高居民消费率的关键。     

城市化与城市资源消耗间关系的实证研究——以北京市为例

建立基于误差修正模型的Granger因果关系模型,检验分析了北京的城市化与城市资源消耗之间的因果关系。结果显示:在短期内,北京的城市化与城市资源消耗互为Granger因果关系;在长期内,仅存在从城市化到城市资源消耗的单向Granger因果关系,这表明当前及今后很长一段时间内北京城市化仍较多依赖资源消耗。最后指出建立有助于节约资源的城市化推进模式是实现北京市可持续发展的根本路径选择。     

网络购物行为影响因素实证研究--基于双渠道视角

线上、线下双渠道运作已经成为互联网时代传统企业渠道变革的一大趋势,越来越多的现代消费者变成了双渠道消费者,越来越多的商家在利用传统销售渠道销售产品的同时也通过网络直销模式进行产品销售。本文基于现有网络购物影响因素文献,整合多渠道选择理论和顾客价值理论,构建了双渠道下消费者网络购物行为影响因素模型并提出相应假设。同时以桂林电子科技大学学生消费者为研究对象,以双渠道为研究视角,对消费者网络购物行为的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究得出了五个驱动消费者进行网络购物的影响因素并实证证明了其分别对消费者网络购物选择行为具有显著的正向影响。最后,针对实证分析结论,探讨了相应的实践意义与研究不足,以期为企业营销决策提供参考。     

中国城市消费的空间分布与空间相关关系研究

运用空间相关性检验的莫兰指数分析和空间面板计量的SDM模型,讨论了中国城市消费的空间分布特征,并从跨区域空间效应的视角分析了影响城市消费的经济、交通、政策等因素.研究发现,中国人均消费较高的“热点”城市较少,邻近城市的收入、客运交通等因素对本地城市消费呈现显著的负相关作用,城市空间消费市场结构更多地表现为区隔效应而非集聚效应,我国区域经济和市场一体化程度有待提升.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

The Emptiness of Peasant “Rationality”: “Demirationality” as an Alternative

This article discusses consumption as a social process that is part of social provisioning and is in an evolutionary interplay with other social processes. The analysis provides grounds for a context-specific research that explores consumption in the context of a culture-nature life process, and draws on material from various disciplines. The article seeks to contribute to the literature on social provisioning as an organizing concept in heterodox economics. The first section explains what is meant by social process and delineates its elements. The second section formulates a categorization of social processes, and locates a consumption process within a system of culture-nature life processes. The rest of the article delineates the elements of the consumption process, providing illustrations based on literature from various disciplines. Specifically, the third section discusses consumption activities. The fourth section discusses institutions and systems of provision of goods and services. The fifth section applies the concept of habits of life and thought to the consumption process. Finally, the article concludes that the formulated analysis transcends dualisms such as social-economic, cultural-material, society-nature, and micro-macro, and draws implications for heterodox economics.     

Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?

This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working‐age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years.     

Effects of Transport Regulation on the Oil Market: Does Market Power Matter?

Instruments used to regulate the consumption of oil in the transport sector include fuel taxes, biofuel requirements, and fuel‐efficiency standards. However, the effects that these have on oil consumption and price vary. If market power is present in the oil market, the directions of change in consumption and price might contrast with those in a competitive market. As a result, the market structure affects not only the effectiveness of the policy instruments used to reduce oil consumption, but also the terms of trade and carbon leakage. In particular, reduced oil consumption, as a result of increased fuel‐efficiency standards, will unambiguously increase the price of oil under a monopoly.     

消费领域共同创造价值的形成机理研究

顾客既可以在生产领域,也可以在消费领域与企业共同创造价值,在消费领域中,消费者会主导价值的共同创造。消费领域的共同创造价值研究是国际学术界和实践界关注的前沿问题。本文在对相关文献梳理的基础上,以参加健康俱乐部和山地车俱乐部的消费者为调研对象,用因子分析方法归纳了消费领域共同创造价值活动的三种形式。另外,本文结合广义情绪认知评估理论分析和验证了消费领域共同创造价值的形成机理和路径。     

基于SDA法的能源消费影响关键要素分析

基于投入产出结构因数分解法,本文分行业研究了影响中国能源消费的关键要素,将影响能源消费变动的因素分解为能源强度变化、技术系数变化、国内最终消费比例变化、资本形成总额比例变化、出口比例和进口比例变化以及最终需求总量变化等6个指标。研究结果显示,技术系数变化是影响中国能源需求量变动的最主要因素;能源强度变化、出口比例和进口比例变化也是影响能源消费量变动的主要因素。在影响中国能源消费变化的各行业中,电力、蒸气及水的生产和供应业,金属产品制造业等6个行业对中国能源消费具有重要影响。