基于分层条件Copula的金融危机传染路径研究

本文采用分层条件Copula理论来研究次贷危机和欧债危机下的危机传染路径问题。在研究中采用t-GARCH (1,1)模型拟合各个金融市场的股指日收益率,以条件Copula分析两次危机下中国大陆股市与美国股市、英国股市、日本股市、台湾股市、香港股市2005年1月至2012年7月间的风险传染关系。实证研究表明：次贷危机期间美国股票市场将危机传染到香港股票市场,再由香港股票市场传染其他亚洲股票市场。而在欧债危机期间英国股票市场分别直接传染美国股票市场和香港股票市场,再通过香港股票市场对其他亚洲股票市场传染。两次危机下香港股票市场均是亚洲股票市场受到危机传染的媒介,因此我国在制定防范金融危机传染政策时应考虑对香港股票市场的控制,在传播层面上控制金融危机对我国的传染,减少对我国金融系统的冲击。     

基于 VAR 模型的区域金融风险传染效应与实证分析--以金融危机前后数据为例

利用资本市场银行日收益率指标为金融风险的代理变量,以国际金融危机为背景,运用Granger 因果关系和脉冲响应函数实证检验了金融风险在中国国内各区域传染效应的存在性。研究结果表明,与国家间存在传染效应一样,金融风险在中国国内各区域间也同样存在显著的传染效应。但Granger 因果关系检验和脉冲响应分析也同时表明,各区域间金融风险传染并非在任何时候都存在双向影响机制,在风险较为集中的时期,各区域之间的金融风险关系错综复杂,任何区域都是其他区域金融风险的Granger原因,此时金融风险在各区域间存在显著的交叉传染效应。     

审计失败对公司债券发行定价的传染效应——基于共同审计师的视角

审计失败会对客户公司产生负面影响,并且可能波及拥有共同审计师的公司。基于共同审计师视角,选取2007—2022年公司债数据,实证检验审计失败在债券发行定价中的传染效应。研究发现,当发生审计失败后,拥有共同审计师的关联公司债券发行定价显著提高,即审计失败对债券发行定价具有传染效应,经过多种稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。机制检验表明,风险信息传递、低质量会计信息是审计失败产生传染效应的作用机制。进一步研究发现,当聘用学历较高或具有行业专长的审计师、投资者面临风险更小、投资者保护更好时,传染效应有所减弱。     

Investor Attention on the Social Web

We study investor attention through practitioners' tweeting behaviors. We develop formalisms of “cognitive niches,” heuristics from adaptive cognitive control, to account for the selectivity of investor attention. Using asset-specific tweets as direct measures of investor attention, we find evidence supporting contextual cognitive control, depending on asset types, investors' experience and investing approaches. We quantify attention contagion arising from the “social proof” heuristic, whereby the drawing power of the crowd in directing investor attention exceeds that of firm fundamentals. Finally, we demonstrate that different natures of investor attention (active or passive) reveals distinct patterns of trading volume, returns and volatility.     

企业财务重述在集团内部传染效应的实证研究

企业财务重述代表财务报告的低质量与不可信,会给企业带来严重的经济后果,作为同一控制人控制下的集团内其他企业也会受到不良影响。以2003—2014年深沪两市A股主板上市集团公司为样本,比较财务重述公告前后集团内重述企业与重述关联企业的市场反应发现,财务报表重述在集团内存在负传染效应,并且,重述内容、重述滞后期、重述发起方以及重述企业聘请的审计事务所规模、集团公司的控制人性质和审计方式都会影响这种传染效应。     

Sluggish Recovery from the Financial Crisis: Crowding-out Effect and Contagion

Abstract

The stimulus plans by the US Government after the financial crisis in 2008 may decrease private investment by means of a crowding-out effect. The US Federal Reserve utilized quantitative easing policies to maintain the interest rate as low as possible to minimize crowding-out. The 2008 financial crisis also affects other economies through contagion effects. This paper investigates the existence of the crowding-out effect and contagion effect after the crisis using Temin and Voth's models. The empirical results from vector autoregession show that there is a crowding-out effect in the US economy as well as a contagion effect of the crisis on the Korean and Japanese economies.     

CRT市场信用风险传染机制研究

本文依据信用风险相关理论和信用风险转移的已有研究成果,从CRT市场上信用风险本身和CRT交易过程中的潜在风险、信息不对称下微观银行CRT行为中的道德风险和逆向选择问题以及金融监管、货币政策和金融创新等宏观因素波动3个方面对CRT市场上信用风险传染的作用机理和生成机制进行了深入的理论探讨,以期为我国CRT市场发展和理论研究的进一步深入提供新的思路。     

Effects of Trade and Financial Links on the Transmission of GDP Growth

Using panel analysis of quarterly data from 14 developed countries between 1980 and 2012, I examine the channels by which GDP growth transmission has taken place, and how the transmission of growth has varied with time and global growth. I find that countries with large, open banking sectors and trade deficits tend to transmit growth more strongly than other countries. Transmission effects seem to have become stronger over time and are stronger in periods of slow economic growth.     

基于Copula理论的金融资产传染效应研究

某一突发性金融事件可能使整个金融市场间的联动程度显著增强,并对一定区域乃至世界范围的经济体系产生传染效应。对此,采用Copula函数方法,通过t-GARCH(1,1)模型对资产收益时序进行过滤,运用非参数估计,分析多变量之间相关结构及尾部相关性的变化进而考察变量间的传染效应。通过对美国次贷危机前后多国证券市场的实证分析,结果表明次贷危机后,美国标准普尔指数与代表性的亚洲证券市场间的联动性显著加强,次贷危机对亚洲股市存在传染效应。     

Has co-movement dynamics in emerging stock markets changed after global financial crisis? New evidence from wavelet analysis

In this article, we revisit the issue of contagion, interdependence and changes in correlation structure after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 between developed and emerging markets in a time-frequency domain using a wavelet-based approach for the period spanning over 1 January 1999 to 8 November 2016. We report evidences of: (a) weaker contagion for Latin American emerging markets during GFC, (b) a strong contagion effect for emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East and (c) a fall in long-run co-movements after GFC, which means by investing in emerging markets, the diversification benefits can be derived in the long run. We report evidence of coexistence of contagion and permanent change in correlation structure.