The normal, the natural, and the harmonic

Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliar aspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to determine who is normal, and fluctuations above or below a natural-growth curve may or may not be natural. A recipe for harmonically sustained natural growth requires that the overlap during the substitution process must be limited. As a consequence the overall growth process must experience good as well as bad “seasons”.     

Forecasting international telecommunications traffic by the data translation method

In forecasting the future international telecommunications traffic for individual countries, a global international view may provide a better long-range view of future trends rather than one based on observing individual countries separately. We propose a data translation method to achieve this. The method properly translates the traffic data per person for a group of countries along the time axis and ‘joins’ them together to form a single logistic or exponential forecasting curve. A necessary and sufficient mathematical condition for the method to be applied is given. Estimation of these curves is then considered. Forecasts are briefly shown for the telephone and telex examples, which demonstrate the improved accuracy that can be achieved relative to simple models based on individual country's trends.     

违约风险模型对违约定义的敏感性研究

本文根据贷款信用风险四级分类和五级分类定义三种违约,运用商业银行的贷款企业会计数据分析了Logistic违约风险模型对违约定义的敏感性。实证研究表明,在三种违约定义下,违约模型的结构相似,但模型选择的变量和变量的显著水平存在差异,违约模型对违约定义具有敏感性。     

手机分期消费贷款信用风险研究——基于RF-Logistic模型的实证分析

识别手机分期消费贷款违约因子是防范手机消费贷款业务信用风险的关键所在。为此,基于融合随机森林（RF）和逻辑回归（Logistics）两阶段模型,通过数据挖掘揭示风险特征重要性含义,并结合经济计量方法诠释异质性客户信用违约的基准逻辑。结果表明：入网时长、终端个数、客户月流量、终端时长是影响手机分期消费贷款客户信用风险的重要性特征变量,且边际影响分别为-0.039%、3.18%、-0.01%、-1.06%,模型泛化能力强,准确率达到74%。所以,要完善手机分期消费贷款信用风险管理应从交叉数据获取、社交网络、兴趣热点和消费习惯等方面着手。     

基于Logistic回归惩罚函数的企业财务危机预警

随着大数据时代的到来，企业的财务数据越来越复杂，在高维的财务数据中选出重要的影响因素，可以帮助企业人员对企业发生财务危机的可能性进行分析预测，降低企业的风险。研究企业财务危机的传统方法大多数是基于低维数据，而目前的财务数据变量众多。惩罚函数（penalty function）不仅能在高维数据的情况下进行稳定的变量选择，还能进行参数估计。采用基于Logistic回归惩罚函数模型研究企业财务危机预警问题，通过选取48个财务指标来进行建模和分析，找出影响企业财务危机的主要因素，并从预测精度、风险区分能力、变量选择这3个方面与传统方法进行对比，最终得到基于Logistic回归的惩罚函数方法更具有优越性。这对企业进行财务危机分析具有预警作用。     

新疆连片特困地区少数民族农户贫困影响因素分析

[目的]少数民族连片特困地区的贫困问题是我国新时期扶贫攻坚的难点和重点。深入剖析该区域少数民族农户致贫因素,为新时期精准扶贫精准脱贫提供参考。[方法]基于实地调研数据,利用Logistic模型,从户主特征、家庭特征、村庄环境特征等3个方面对新疆连片特困地区少数民族农户贫困的影响因素进行深入研究。[结果]户主的性别和受教育程度、家庭成员中熟练说国语人口所占比重、兼业情况、是否参与农业合作组织、家庭成员是否残疾或重大疾病、人均耕地面积、是否通公共交通车均对贫困产生了重要影响,与预期一致;户主年龄、农户家庭中劳动力所占比重、未成年人口所占比重、离县城的距离、有无自然灾害对贫困的影响均没有通过统计上的显著性检验,与预期假设不符,主要是"一户一策"的精准脱贫政策及惠农工程起到了重要作用。[结论]未来应从提高贫困人口的自我发展能力和实现对贫困人口精准识别精准帮扶两个方面提高片区的脱贫成效。     

The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic growth and development

In this paper, it is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in our biological realm. The observed patterns of regularity in human affairs, manifest as socioeconomic rhythms and recurrent phenomena, are constrained and codetermined by our natural human biological clocks, themselves the result of instructions impressed in the human genome and human cognitive capacity by the physical regularity of fixed cosmic cycles. Considering that a long wave can be conceived as an evolving learning dissipative structure consisting of two successive logistic structural cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, and applying considerations from population dynamics, chaos theory and logistic growth dynamics, a Generational-Learning Model is proposed that permits comprehension of the unfolding and time duration of the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on two kinds of biological constraints that impose the rhythm of collective human behavior — generational and cognitive. The generational consist of biologically based rhythms, namely, the Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure and the Aggregate Female Fecundity Interval, both subsets of the normative human life span or human life cycle. The cognitive consist of a limiting learning growth rate, manifest in the alternating sequence of two succeeding learning phases, a new knowledge phase and a consolidation phase. It is proposed that the syncopated beats of succeeding effective generational waves and the dynamics of the learning processes determine the long-wave behavior of socioeconomic growth and development. From the relationship between the differential and the discrete logistic equations, it is demonstrated that the unfolding of each structural cycle of a long wave is controlled by two parameters: the diffusion-learning rate δ and the aggregate effective generation t_G, whose product maintained in the interval 3<δt_G<4 (deterministic chaos) grants the evolution and performance of social systems. Moreover, it is speculated that the triggering mechanism of this long-term swinging behavior may result from the cohesion loss of a given technoeconomic system in consequence of reaching a threshold value of informational entropy production.     

Residential development in the peri-urban fringe: The example of Adelaide,South Australia

The peri-urban fringes of large metropolitan areas of Australia continue to experience major changes as natural and semi-natural landscapes are converted to built-up areas largely through increased residential development. These irreversible conversions are producing significant challenges for ecological and environmental protection. Yet, there has been little attempt to systematically analyse and model some of the key spatial features of these peri-urban fringes, especially in terms of examining factors underpinning new residential development. This paper attempts to fill this information gap using Adelaide, South Australia, as an exploratory case study. Using parcel-level data, we quantified spatial patterns of residential development during four consecutive periods (ten-year intervals between 1971 and 2010), revealing a gradual slow-down in the rate of new housing development after the 1980s. The effects of major roads and services, residents’ attraction to areas of high natural amenity, and previous residential development were estimated using logistic regression models and geographically weighted logistic regression models, respectively. Variation partitioning was used to examine the relative importance of three groups of predictors of residential development. Roads and services had the greatest impact on the pattern of residential development in the 1970s, while previous residential development ranked first among the three groups of forces in the last three time-periods. Influences relating to the attraction of natural amenities were of the least importance to peri-urban residential development during all four periods. These findings can help understand change mechanisms within peri-urban fringes and to develop corresponding policy responses to improve their management.     

“感物说”与“摹仿说”之比较

＂感物说＂和＂摹仿说＂分别是中西关于文学艺术发生的理论学说,并且都各自对其后代文学艺术的发展产生了深刻的影响。两者都反映了文学与自然、社会之间有着不可分割的联系。我们不能忽视两者的确存在着更为根本的差异。＂感物说＂强调的是主客观的融合,而＂摹仿说＂则强调主客观的分离,这和中西方＂天人合一＂和＂二元对立＂的认知模式有很大的联系。     

民营物流企业的营销策略选择

民营物流企业正面临着国内外激烈的市场竞争，要在市场竞争中取得优势，对营销策略的研究非常重要。文中对民营物流企业进行了SWOT分析，探讨了其五种竞争力量，提出了民营物流企业应对环境的营销策略。