Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

The traditional high-low-medium scenario approach to quantifying uncertainty in population forecasts has been criticized as lacking probabilistic meaning and consistency. This paper shows, under certain assumptions, how appropriately calibrated scenarios can be used to approximate the uncertainty intervals on future population size and age structure obtained with fully stochastic forecasts. As many forecasting organizations already produce scenarios and because dealing with them is familiar territory, the methods presented here offer an attractive intermediate position between probabilistically inconsistent scenario analysis and fully stochastic forecasts.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

Memory recall errors in retrospective surveys: A reverse record check study

This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses.     

In at the deep end: Conducting processual research on organisational change

This article provides a series of reflections on the practice of carrying out processual research on organisational change. At a broad level, some of the main tasks associated with conducting company case studies are described and the benefits of this approach for dealing with complex change data are outlined. At a more specific level, the article addresses three main areas tied to the actual “doing” of processual research. First, the notion of tacit knowledge and “getting your hands dirty” by engaging in ongoing in-depth fieldwork. Second, the design and implementation of a longitudinal case study research programme. Third, the advantages and concerns of combining a range of different data collecting techniques in carrying out processual studies. Overall, the main intention is to provide some useful reflections and practical insights, as well as providing something of the flavour of carrying out this type of research.     

灰色理论在城市总体规划中的应用研究

在编制城市总体规划时收集的资料和信息往往是不完全和不对称的，很多数据需要通过科学的理论去建立合理的模型来推算，本文采用灰色理论建模，以GDP预测为例详细说明了灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的建模过程。该模型对于预测城市总体规划中水文、人口、用地规模、城市化水平、交通运输发展、公共交通以及客货运量等具有普遍指导意义。     

论细分化和联合化思想在营销专业产学结合中的应用

产学结合作为目前高校特别是高职院校办学的特色和亮点，近来越来越被强调、应用，呈现出蓬勃发展的趋势。本文从产学结合的实际应用情况出发，引入细分化和联合化的思想，对营销专业产学结合的发展趋势做了一定的思考。     

高职高专教育教学质量评价国际比较研究

该系教育部《新世纪高职高专教育教学质量监控与教学评价体系的研究与实践》项目“国际比较研究”子课题的研究报告。报告从近年来评价模式的多样化、评价主体的多元化、评价客体的一体化以及评价价值观的双重取向变化四个方面进行了比较研究。     

高等教育成本核算的研究

高校成本核算是教育经济领域长期探讨的问题,本文将高校办学成本定义为直接办学成本,对高等教育成本的核算范围、计算公式进行了定义,并分析和探讨了职工工资及福利费、助学金、固定资产折旧、后勤服务支出、科研支出等成本如何计入高等教育成本等问题.     

APEC贸易自由化效果的实证分析

1994年，亚太经济合作组织（以下简称APEC）确立了发达国家于2010年，发展中国家于2020年实现贸易和投资自由化的目标。贸易自由化目标的实现必将对亚太，乃至整个世界产生重要影响。利用可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）对APEC贸易自由化效果进行了模拟分析，结论是几乎所有APEC成员都能从中获益。根据模拟结果，中国作为其中一员，成为从贸易自由化的实现中获益较多的国家。     

乡村旅游标准化研究

分析了我国乡村旅游标准化的背景。针对我国乡村旅游的具体情况和乡村旅游的特点，在乡村旅游的法制法规、旅游服务标准化、服务管理、服务质量、服务资质、旅游服务设施、卫生安全、生态环境、消费者权益维护和旅游标准的评价体系等方面提出了乡村旅游标准化内容和实施乡村旅游标准化过程中需要注意的一些问题。