Evolutionary Characteristics of China＇s Intermediate Manufactures

China's economic development is characterized by progressive integration with international production chains as an assembly producer. Japan and South Korea are the major partners providing intermediate products to China. The present paper analyzes the Chinese intermediate sector's present condition and evolutionary characteristics revealed in bilateral trade with Japan and South Korea. The analysis uses the framework of new trade theory represented by “intra‐industry trade”. Trade statistics from 1997 to 2004 are analyzed using the database published by the OECD. Results show that China's inter‐industrial evolution is characterized by its expanding positioning in the manner of the flying geese development paradigm of Asian countries. Furthermore, intra‐industrial evolution is characterized by a concentration on price competitiveness. The framework and results of the industrial analysis presented in this paper assist in the understanding of China's manufacturing evolution and of the policy‐making decisions taken in the process.     

Relative Guarantees

Many real-world financial contracts have some sort of minimum rate of return guarantee included. One class of these guarantees is so-called relative guarantees, i.e., guarantees where the minimum guaranteed rate of return is given as a function of the stochastic return on a reference portfolio. These guarantees are the topic of this paper. We analyse a wide range of different functional specifications for the minimum guaranteed rate of return, hereunder both so-called maturity and multi-period guarantees. Several closed form solutions are presented.     

Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

论生态经济系统稳态

本文论述了生态经济系统非平衡稳定态的概念、特性及其实现的途径。指出生态经济系统稳态,是非平衡的,对外全面开放、激烈竞争、充分利用涨落作用,对内协同、有序、自组织、自适应、自催化、且有非线性作用和支配性、良性运转、进展演替的耗散结构状态。生态经济系统平衡的提法应被生态经济系统稳态的概念所取代。     

Optimum currency areas and the European experience

Across nations or regions, the debate on optimum exchange rate cum monetary policies is not yet resolved on three levels. First is the optimum domain of fixed exchange rates versus keeping them flexible. Second is the subordinate debate on whether one needs full monetary union (as in continental Europe) to secure an optimum currency area's internal domain; or, whether virtually fixed exchange rates — where national currencies remain in circulation — can be sufficient. Third is whether a regional grouping of economies with close trade ties (as in East Asia) gain by collectively pegging to an outside currency such as the US dollar. Using an axiomatic approach, which limits the set of cross‐country financial claims to what is feasible, I analyse how best to both share and reduce macroeconomic risks on these three levels. JEL classification: F31, F36.     

美日两国产业结构政策比较

日本产业从战后的废墟中得以重建和繁荣,并以惊人的速度赶超欧美,成为世界第二大经济强国,日本政府英明的产业结构政策功不可没。然而面对20世纪90年代日本经济的极度萧条,政府的产业结构政策已无回天之力。相比之下,美国政府通用的产业结构政策却引导美国的产业发展在信息时代仍然处于不败之地,这不能不引起我们的思考。     

技术性贸易壁垒与合格评定程序

随着WTO和贸易自由化的发展，各国的关税水平大幅度降低，以及配额、许可证等非关税措施的逐步取消，大大促进了国际贸易的发展，技术贸易措施在国际贸易中的地位日益重要。合格评定程序是指任何直接或间接用以确定产品是否满足技术法规或标准要求的程序。合格评定程序是企业扩大对外出口、突破技术贸易壁垒的有效措施。     

优惠性原产地规则的效应分析--兼论世界贸易组织统一优惠性原产地规则的必要性

在国际贸易日趋自由化的背景下，原产地规则尤其是优惠性原产地规则却日渐被用作非关税贸易保护措施。乌拉圭回合制定的《原产地规则协议》对非优惠性原产地规则做出了统一规定，但未能对优惠性原产地规则制订出多边规则。本文分析优惠性原产地规则的保护机制及其效应，指出WTO统一优惠性原产地规则的必要性。     

一个培育我国外贸新增长点的设想--发展环渤海区域外贸城市群

对外贸易的拉动作用是实现我国十六大经济增长目标的重要保证。但是，反观当前的国内外环境，我国进出口贸易的发展遇到了诸多困难。欲解决这些问题，必须进行制度创新，其中培育城市群是一种可行的办法。而环渤海区域以其特有优势，成为培育对外贸易城市群的首选。为此，我国需要在环渤海区域大力发展高新技术产业，培育产业集群，引导民营企业发展，以及发挥政府的政策作用。