商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。     

新型信贷模式下完善农村担保贷款机制的思考

农村经济发展的不平衡制约了现行传统农村信贷投放的规模和效益,而新的联保贷款和担保贷款模式既不需农户的实物抵押,也部分规避了信贷双方信息不对称的风险。要完善农村担保贷款制度,应采取措施积极扩大贷款担保主体;发挥政府对贷款的引导和保障功能;拓展涉农企业对农村信贷的担保职能;完善农村信贷激励机制;大力拓展对"三农"的金融保险业务;建立农村基层干部对农贷的奖励和责任机制。     

银团贷款在控制政府融资平台风险中的应用——基于模糊综合风险评价的分析

地方政府融资平台信息不透明、治理结构不健全等情况给金融机构信贷风险控制带来挑战.银团贷款因为能提高信息共享、遏制信贷欺诈、分散信贷风险,所以能对控制集团客户风险发挥积极作用.可以模糊综合评价模型为基础,分析政府融资平台引入银团贷款模式后的风险评价,为控制地方政府融资平台信贷风险提供思路.     

论我国商业银行不良资产处置存在的风险及法律对策

处置商业银行不良资产可以有效提高防范金融危机的能力,确保银行业稳健经营和可持续发展,但商业银行不良资产存在很大的法律风险。文章认为,防范商业银行不良资产处置风险应在立法层面上确立商业银行不良资产处置的科学理念,建立商业银行不良资产处置风险防范法律体系,完善相关法律法规和建立严格、科学的不良资产处置机制及责任追究制。     

The Higher Earning in America: Are 529 Plans a Good Way to Save for College?

This article studies whether 529 plans are an effective way for most people to save for college. The 529 plans were created in 1996 to help low- and middle-income American families save for college. Since this time they have adopted more tax advantages and grown substantially as a result. While total balances in 529 plans now exceed $250 billion, less than 3.0 percent of households have a 529 plan. And the majority of 529 plan accounts are held by the wealthiest households. Low- and middle-income households receive little tax savings from investing in 529 plans, and some states count these plans against financial aid. Also, 529 plans are complicated, rules vary by state, and fund management fees tend to be high. Thus, 529 plans are not the panacea to college affordability.     

用好国外贷款推进节能减排的实践探讨

推进中小城市节能减排,资金是关键,也是瓶颈。利用国外贷款,是解决中小城市节能减排资金难题的重要途径。文章以山东海河流域污染治理利用亚行贷款项目为例,探讨了用好国外贷款推进中小城市节能减排的基本经验和主要问题,并提出了发挥国外贷款最大效益、深化国际金融合作、加快中小城市公用事业市场化改革的相关建议。     

Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.     

Intellectual capital and firm performance: evidence from Indian banking sector

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the entire Indian banking industry was paralysed and their performance was shattered by the unfolding of enormous cases of Non-performing Assets (NPA). The study estimates the operating efficiency of 40 Indian banks for 5 years (2011–15) as a proxy of performance measure using the output-oriented DEA-BCC model. We find that nearly 62% of the state-owned banks and 47% of the private banks are inefficient indicating that the inefficient banks need to reduce their inputs or improve their output to become efficient. The study further investigates the relationship between intellectual capital (IC) and bank performance using a truncated regression model. The regression results show that out of the three components of intellectual capital, only human capital efficiency is positively and significantly associated with operational efficiency while structural capital and finance capital have a negative impact on the efficiency of banks. The study concludes that to achieve competitive edge banks should invest in their human capital. The results are robust in the case of financial variables taken as a proxy for performance.     

资产管理公司,路在何方?

探讨了资产管理公司 (AMC)在运行过程中遇到的一系列体制性困难 ,分析了国有企业、金融市场、政府部门、机构投资者、中介机构、法律制度等方面对它的影响 ,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策和建议。     

对国家助学贷款可持续性发展的思考

国家助学贷款是国家利用金融手段加大对高校贫困家庭学生资助力度而采取的一项重要措施,也是进一步完善高校资助政策体系的新探索。实施七年来取得了显著的成果,但从目前情况来看,仍然存在许多问题值得我们去探讨,本文从国家助学贷款政策的绩效、影响因素、可持续性发展的思路与对策等方面加以分析,并提出相应的解决方法。