利率市场化给商业银行带来的机遇、挑战及其应对

利率市场化将使商业银行获得自主定价权,有利于其优化客户结构、推动经营战略转型和开展金融创新.但是,利率市场化对商业银行又是一场严峻的挑战.因为,利率市场化会加剧商业银行间的竞争,从而对其产生深层次的影响和冲击.如何应对利率市场化带来机遇和挑战,成为摆在商业银行面前的迫切命题.     

Does the Entrepreneurship of the Parents Affect the Opportunities of their Offspring’s Entrepreneurship? Empirical Analysis Based on the CGSS 2010–2013 Data

The whole society is paying close attention to “entrepreneurship,” which urges researchers to find an explanatory perspective relatively independent and with causality on the intergenerational transfer of entrepreneurship. Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey (short for CGSS) during the years 2010–2013, this paper analyzes how parents’ entrepreneurship affects the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, and the results show that compared with the offspring of parents who did not start their own business, those whose parents did are more likely to choose to start their own business. In view of historical facts such as the “lay-off wave” during China’s transformation into a market economy, we use “the annual number of unemployed back to work,” a provincial-level indicator, in the 1990s as an instrumental variable to correct possible endogenous problems. We find that parents’ entrepreneurship has significant positive effects on the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, which may result from the informal transfer of human capital and wealth from parents to their offspring.     

Perceived trade-off between education and sports career: evidence from professional football

To explore the attitudes towards risky career choices of young people in highly competitive environments, we surveyed almost 1000 football players in the youth academies of German professional clubs (Bundesliga), who must generally decide early in their careers whether or not to risk quitting school to focus solely on a professional football career. Based on the survey responses, we empirically analysed which factors influence these youths’ tendencies to choose a high-risk career option over a lower risk one. Our results seem to indicate that such risk taking in competitive environments can be explained by potential benefits expected from this decision, as well as judgments about the likelihood of achieving the desired career. Risk attitudes towards career choices vary by differences in individuals’ estimates of the potential benefits and in particular, in their own assessments of the likelihood of success, which is an important driver of risk acceptance. We also found that opportunity cost considerations influence risk acceptance: the better the low-risk option, the less willing the individual to give it up for a high-risk alternative. In addition, both national origin and level of cultural integration play a role in attitudes towards risky career choices, with reductions in the latter increasing the risk premium of quitting school.     

浅析我国入境旅游贸易现状及对策

2009年我国入境旅游表现为入境旅游者年龄相对集中,乘坐飞机成为旅游者主要入境方式,入境游客源地相对集中,以港澳、韩日等地为主,欧美比重有所提高,同时游客消费倾向有所提高,消费品市场吸引了更多入境游客,散客市场持续增长。从游客的个人身体、工作因素、旅游成本、游客生活习惯与客源地的区位原因、我国旅游市场的消费品市场逐渐优化等角度解释了我国目前入境游的现状。分析预测在未来三年内由于世博会、亚运会的召开,我国旅游业的全面开放,政策的鼓励,我国入境旅游市场将快速发展。针对我国入境旅游业发展提出应充分利用大好机遇,重点培育潜力市场创新产品,优化旅游消费结构,加强旅游信息化建设,完善网络服务系统,加强对从业人员的培训和规范,提高抗拒突发事件的能力的发展思路。     

中国共产党“重要战略机遇期”的解析

重要战略机遇期是十六大以来中国共产党对国际国内形势做出的一个科学判断。其后十年中国的发展历程印证了这一伟大判断的正确性和科学性。当前,伴随着世界金融危机影响不断加深,威胁和平与发展的不确定因素增多,国内也面临诸多问题,这给中国的未来发展造成了巨大压力。然而,中国共产党再次抓住问题的关键,准确研判国际国内大局,认为国际方面和平与发展的时代主题没有变,国内经济形势相对稳定,社会主义制度的优越性日益显现。在此基础上,十八大报告指出,中国仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期。     

Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil: A Corrigendum

This note acknowledges and corrects a programming error in our paper “Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil” (Review of Income and Wealth, 53(4), 585–618, 2007). Once the error is corrected, our bounds approach to the identification of individual model parameters in the presence of omitted variable biases is much less useful than indicated in the original paper. In the specific context of the measurement of inequality of opportunity, this implies that the decomposition of overall inequality of opportunity into direct and indirect effects is not reliable. However, the parametric approach introduced in our paper remains useful for obtaining a lower‐bound estimate of overall ex‐ante inequality of opportunity, as proposed by Ferreira and Gignoux (2011).     

Guanxi与创业企业成长:国外研究述评

随着中国在世界经济舞台上扮演日益重要的角色,国外学术界为了便利自己国家的实业界了解并应对中国社会中的"guanxi",越来越多的国外学者从guanxi视角去研究中国的经济管理领域中的问题,而guanxi对创业企业成长的影响是其中的一个热点。针对该热点,本文从guanxi的分类和度量,guanxi与创业机会的识别和把握,guanxi与创业企业资源的获取,guanxi与创业企业绩效方面对国外学术界的研究现状进行回顾,并在评价它们的基础上指出该研究热点未来进一步可能的研究方向。     

转型时期企业投资的两维度环境分析

企业投资的实现需要两个维度的宏观环境:一个是宏观的投资机会环境;另一个是宏观融资环境.宏观投资机会环境主要通过商业周期变化影响投资,但不确定性加大商业周期的变动性,加大对投资的影响.宏观融资环境通过有效的融资体系提高融资资源的有效配置.转型时期,制度的过渡性和制度缺乏使两维的宏观环境具有特殊性,影响了投资的稳定性和资源的最优配置.两维度环境相互影响,并成为宏观经济运行的行为层次上的内因.     

上市公司增长机会、增发数量与股价反应

以2007年至2009年成功增发的A股上市公司为样本,对我国上市公司增发数量与股价变动的相互关系进行研究,结果表明:上市公司的增发数量内生于其增长机会,增长机会越大的公司增发数量占发行前总股本的比率也越高;股市对上市公司的过度增发会做出显著的负面反应,但仅有微弱的证据表明谨慎增发会导致股价下跌;公开增发的上市公司较之于定向增发的上市公司具有更多的过度增发倾向,且股价反应也更剧烈。     

后奥运我国中介市场面临机遇和挑战

北京2008奥运会成功举办为跨入新世纪的中国提供了一次千载难逢的加速发展机遇,中国体育事业得到极大的促进,中国体育体制将会进行空前规模的改革。同时奥运会也将全面拉动相关产业经济的发展,有力地促进我国体育中介市场的发展与完善。但奥运会在带动经济发展的同时同样暗藏着危机和风险。奥运会后带来的经济"低谷效应"让我国体育中介市场面临机遇和挑战。