金融危机下流动性过剩问题的分析

在金融危机的大环境下,由于投资储蓄大于消费及贸易顺差不降反升引起的外汇储备继续增加,国家投入到市场中更多的货币,暂时解决了社会财富与货币供求的平衡,但这为今后的流动性过剩的加剧埋下了巨大的隐患,因此政府需要在这个时期就采取措施以适当抑制未来几年内很可能由于流动性过剩加速引起的通货膨胀等不良经济影响。     

Protecting software development projects against underestimation

When a project in progress has been seriously underestimated, it is essential to figure out how much additional effort is required to complete it within its original scope and delivery date. This article posits that project contingencies should be based on the amount it will take to recover from the underestimation, and not on the amount that would have been required had the project been adequately planned from the beginning, and that these funds should be administered at the portfolio level. A model to calculate the required funds is developed.     

公共养老储备基金融资政策研究——国际经验及其启示

目前多数国家都是在对其未来的养老金债务进行精算的基础上确定其养老储备基金的规模及政府注资的法定义务，并将财政拨款、公共资源收入和国有资产变现收入及其分红等作为养老储备基金的主要来源。目前，我国现行法律的相关规定难以保证全国社保基金具有一个稳定的资金来源，不利于全国社保基金发挥战略储备基金的作用。应借鉴发达国家的经验，在相关法律中对全国社保基金作为养老储备基金的性质、支出范围和目标规模以及每年划入全国社保基金的资产种类、数额等予以明确的界定，以确立全国社保基金可持续发展的制度基础。     

探析中央银行存款准备金制度

法定存款准备金是央行传统的三大货币政策工具之一。提高法定存款准备金率,可以降低商业银行体系的信用创造能力、控制货币信贷过快增长、进一步回收目前我国银行体系内过剩的流动性资金,以此加强宏观调控。     

Understanding the accumulation of bank and thrift reserves during the U.S. financial crisis

The level of aggregate excess reserves held by U.S. depository institutions increased significantly at the peak of the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Although the amount of aggregate reserves is determined almost entirely by the policy initiatives of the central bank that act on the asset side of its balance sheet, the motivations of individual banks in accumulating reserves differ and respond to the impact of changes in the economic environment on individual institutions. We undertake a systematic analysis of this massive accumulation of excess reserves using bank-level data for more than 7000 commercial banks and almost 1000 savings institutions during the U.S. financial crisis. We propose a testable stochastic model of reserves determination when interest is paid on reserves, which we estimate using bank-level data and censored regression methods. We find evidence primarily of a precautionary motive for reserves accumulation with some notable heterogeneity in the response of reserves accumulation to external and internal factors of the largest banks compared with smaller banks. We combine propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences approach to determine whether the beneficiaries of the Capital Purchase Program of the Troubled Asset Relief Program accumulated less cash, including reserves, than non-beneficiaries. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find that banks that participated in the program accumulated less cash, including reserves, than nonparticipants in the initial quarters after the capital injection.     

Do Exchange Rate Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from Emerging Markets*

It is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries, motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness, tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations. Using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998:M1 to 2016:M12, we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves. Moreover, we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a “leaning against the depreciation wind” policy, rather than the appreciation wind (i.e., we provide evidence of a “fear of depreciation”).     

The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run effects of financial integration on the dynamics between monetary independence and foreign exchange reserves using a GMM system estimation involving two-year non-overlapping average data (2000-2011) from 114 countries. The results indicate that the effect of foreign exchange reserves on the monetary independence is intensified by the level of financial integration. This suggests a positive spill over effect from the financial integration to the monetary policy independence. Besides, a positive implication of financial integration on monetary independence could be established when the foreign exchange reserves is at the maximum level. In addition, the comparisons between the mean of foreign exchange reserves and the threshold levels of foreign exchange reserves that neutralise the impact of financial integration indicate that on average, the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to offset the effect of financial integration. A stable exchange rate will undermine the positive impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary independence. Finally, the long-run and short-run impacts occur in the same direction. This paper ends with some policy implications and suggestions for future research.     

关于当前流通业发展若干问题的思考

流通业是国民经济的重要产业。当前流通业在快速发展过程中，也面临一些问题，还需调整改进。本文针对当前流通业发展中面临的几个重要问题：如何减轻流通业不合理的收费负担，如何加强重要商品储备等调整市场的手段，如何加强公益性商品流通基础设施的政府投入，进行了深入思考，并提出政策建议。     

Strategic Asset Allocation for China＇s Foreign Reserves： A Copula Approach

In this paper, we study strategic asset allocation for China＇s foreign reserves using a risk- based approach. Four aspects of the risk management are investigated： an investment universe, dependence structure, allocation strategies under risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns. A regime-switching copula model is developed to investigate the dynamic dependence between assets. One regime emphasizes a short-term safe asset and the other regime emphasizes a long-term safe asset. The optimal allocation is derived following two strategies： risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns in utility maximization with disappointment avoidance, lf the central bank focuses solely on risk minimization, the asymmetries in the asset return dependence encourage the flight to safety. However, if higher risks are allowed in exchange for higher returns, even the exchange is very conservative, and the asymmetries would discourage the flight to safety. Therefore, we suggest that China should mitigate its flight to safety after 2008 and increase holdings of short-term bank deposits, long-term treasury bonds and euro bonds.     

The Euro and the Dollar, 1998

There is no immediate prospect for the euro to become an anchor currency outside Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Still, a successful euro could deepen European financial markets and attract more international investment to the euro area. The prospect of substantial portfolio shifts into the euro, however, does not justify forecasts that the new currency will appreciate against the dollar over an extended time horizon. Liability managers outside the euro area should also find the enhanced liquidity and improved diversification possibilities of euro-denominated debt attractive.