A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation

Summary. We consider the determination of an optimal dividend policy in the presence of cash flow uncertainty and transaction costs. We state a set of weak conditions under which the optimal dividend policy can be explicitly characterized for a broad class of diffusions modelling the underlying cash flow dynamics and demonstrate that increased dividend policy flexibility does not only increase the maximal expected cumulative present value of the future dividends, it also increases the rate at which this value grows (i.e. Tobin’s marginal q). We also prove that increased transaction costs result into larger but less frequent dividend payments.Received: 23 November 2003, Revised: 23 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: G35, G31, C44, Q23.Luis H.R. Alvarez: Correspondence toLuis H. R. Alvarez acknowledges the financial support from the Foundation for the Promotion of the Actuarial Profession, the Finnish Insurance Society, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, and the Research Unit of Economic Structures and Growth (RUESG) at the University of Helsinki. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for constructive comments and suggested improvements on an earlier version of this study.     

Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty

Summary. This paper introduces the framework of rational beliefs of Kurz (1994), which makes the assumptions of heterogeneous beliefs of Harrison and Kreps (1978) and Morris (1996) more plausible. Agents hold diverse beliefs that are “rational” in the sense of being compatible with ample observed data. In a non-stationary environment the agents only learn about the stationary measure of observed data, but their beliefs can remain non-stationary and diverse. Speculative trading then stems from disagreements among traders. In a Markovian framework of dividends and beliefs, we obtain analytical results to show how the speculative premium depends on the extent of heterogeneity of beliefs. In addition, we demonstrate that there exists a unique Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) generically with endogenous uncertainty (as defined by Kurz and Wu, 1996) and that the RBE price is higher than the rational expectation equilibrium price (REE) under some general conditions Received: March 15, 2001; revised version: April 26, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We are deeply grateful to Mordecai Kurz for his constant encouragement and inspiring guidance over the years. We wish to express our gratitude to an anonymous referee for the very valuable comments provided. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Peter Hammond, Roko Aliprantis and Nicholas Yannelis for their helpful suggestions and Academia Sinica and the National Science Council of the R.O.C. for their indispensable support. Correspondence to: H.-M. Wu     

Estimation of the greenhouse gas externality with uncertainty

The shadow price of carbon dioxide is the value of the external damage caused by an emission. A shadow price model for calculating the present value of the external damage of a carbon dioxide emission is derived explicitly. Sixteen experts provided subjective high, low and most likely parameter estimates because correct values for the eight model parameters are uncertain. The estimation procedure retains parameter uncertainty while generating the main result, which is a distribution of shadow price estimates. Major assumptions made in the estimation identify the basis for the results. Of the eight model parameters, the discount rate dominates the determination of the shadow price. For comparison, expert estimates of the shadow price itself provide a second distribution of shadow price estimates.     

Population uncertainty in contests

Summary. We study contests where the set of players is a random variable. If it is known for certain that there will be at least one participant, then aggregate contest expenditure in equilibrium is strictly lower in a contest with population uncertainty than in a non-uncertain contest with the same expected number of players. This suggests an explanation of, for example, why empirical studies show rent-seeking expenditures to be much lower than predicted by other theories.Received: 29 June 2003, Revised: 14 December 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D44, D72, D82, K41. Correspondence to: Karl Wärneryd     

不确定条件下区域间合作研发与独立研发的策略选择

新古典经济理论认为具备理性经济人性质的区域会因自利而独力研发.而博弈论的无名氏定理认为经济人的无限次重复博弈总能导致合作.本文针对这两种理论提出一个基于期权理论之上的区域间合作研发模型,该模型指出:只要存在不确定性和区间竞争压力就必定会有区域间合作研发,而区域利益最大化更是区域间合作研发的源动力.     

会计利润的不确定性思考

文章试图解释企业在确认、计量会计利润时存在的一个佯谬(paradox):从短期而言,会计利润是一个充满估计和选择的不确定性结果,但从长期而言,它又是公允的,相对确定的。文章首先对不确定性进行了阐释,接着重点分析了会计利润与不确定性之间的关系,最后得出结论:截取某个区间企业会计利润确实是一些不确定的事件,但从长期来看企业利润又是相对确定的。     

基于不确定性的供应链风险分类与防范

从供应链不确定性着手,认为供应链风险可以分为供应风险、生产风险、需求风险和外部风险。基于此种分类,防范供应链风险应该加强核心企业能力、加强供应商关系管理、加强顾客需求管理和建立风险应急系统。     

基于随机机会约束的空车调整模型的研究

通过对比空车调整问题的确定性模型与实际问题之间的差异，提出一类随机机会约束模型来模拟实际空车调整问题。通过引入概率模拟实际问题中的不确定因素，将确定性模型转化为不确定性模型，以使模型能更准确的反映实际，并将经济学指标作为评价标准。通过遗传算法求解算例，表明模型和方法的有效性。     

The effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance in strategic alliances under behavioral and environmental uncertainty

Research summary: We examine the interplay of behavioral and environmental uncertainty in shaping the effectiveness of two key governance mechanisms used by strategic alliances: contractual and trust‐based governance. We develop and test hypotheses, using a meta‐analytic dataset encompassing over 15,000 strategic alliances across 82 independent samples. We find that contractual governance works best under low to moderate levels of behavioral uncertainty and moderate to high levels of environmental uncertainty, while it is detrimental to alliance performance when both types of uncertainty are low or high. Trust‐based governance is most effective at high levels of behavioral uncertainty and low levels of environmental uncertainty. It suffers a large loss of usefulness at high behavioral uncertainty as environmental uncertainty increases. Managerial summary: Strategic alliances allow firms to gain greater efficiency and create value. Yet, many such alliances fail because they are not able to deal with the twin challenges posed by behavioral and environmental uncertainty. Findings from our meta‐analysis imply that under conditions of high behavioral uncertainty and low‐to‐moderate levels of environmental uncertainty, the use of trust‐based governance alongside contractual governance might enhance the latter's effectiveness. The combined effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance under high levels of both behavioral and environmental uncertainty is not obvious. When both behavioral and environmental uncertainty are high, contractual governance hurts alliance performance while trust‐based governance does not function at its best either. Under these conditions, it might be better for firms to turn to hierarchy or vertical integration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The association between risk disclosure and firm characteristics: a meta-analysis

The empirical literature on the determinants of risk disclosures offers mixed results. This complicates efforts among stakeholders to understand the factors affecting firms’ decision to report risk information. The aim of our paper is to analyze the findings of 42 empirical studies using a meta-analysis technique. We examine whether differences in the findings are attributable to random error or due to legal and institutional systems, uncertainty avoidance, disclosure regime (mandatory vs. voluntary), industry types, and the proxies used to measure corporate characteristics. We find that all moderators affect the relationship between corporate size and risk reporting. Legal system, disclosure regime, industry types, and leverage ratio measurement moderate the association between leverage ratio and risk disclosure. Industry types and uncertainty-avoidance level affect the relationship between profitability and risk disclosure. Finally, the association between risk factor and risk disclosure is moderated by industry types. We discuss the implications of our findings and offer suggestions for future research.