中央银行汇率风险的测量与防范

自20世纪70年代以来,国际外部环境日趋复杂,固定汇率制度逐渐瓦解,国际金融危机日益频繁,传统的货币危机模型普遍缺乏定量测量和实时评估的功能,而将VaR方法应用于汇率风险评估具有更强的现实性,它可以对央行的汇率风险进行科学的定量分析,使管理层的监管更加有效。     

产业集群脆弱性测度模式初探

根据社会网络分析的理念,提出产业集群脆弱性测度的5个测度变量,构建了产业集群脆弱性测度的理论模型;并依据文献综述和企业访谈得出了25个测量条款和相关的调研问卷;在172家样本企业实证分析的基础上,对上述理论模型进行了验证和修订。接着根据复杂自适应系统理论,设计出了产业集群脆弱性的测度方法;然后以网络层次分析法为工具,用修订的测度模型推演出的评价网络结构模型,探讨了产业集群内部各节点间脆性关联程度的赋值方法;最后通过一个实例说明了产业集群中各节点企业以及产业集群整体脆弱性测度的求解过程。     

基于灰色聚类法的河北省区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价

在定义区域社会经济系统脆弱性的概念基础上,构建综合评价指标体系,使用层次分析法和熵值法确定指标体系的权重,运用灰色聚类法对区域社会经济系统脆弱性进行综合评价,最后将该模型应用到河北省,通过具体实例证实模型是科学和实用的。     

A conversational approach to consumer vulnerability: performativity,representations, and storytelling

ABSTRACT

This conceptual article provides a conversational analysis of consumer vulnerability, which unveils how vulnerability is made through conversations and interactions among actors holding different market power positions. Three types of conversations prove fruitful to pursue a transformative research agenda improving vulnerable consumers’ well-being: (1) performativity, which unpacks agency and finalism in conversations; (2) social representations, which reveal uneven power positions and normativity expressed by participants in a conversation; and (3) storytelling, which reveals alternative and more powerful persuasive mechanisms of conversations framed as stories. Illustration for these types of conversations comes from extensive review of the literature on consumer vulnerability and from a critical consideration of my life-as-researcher with consumers as varied as gays, homeless people, migrants, second-generation immigrants, and subcultures of consumption.     

Exploring spatial vulnerability: inequality and agency formulations in social space

Abstract

The authors derive from critical urban geography and consumer research on vulnerability to investigate the ways in which vulnerability within social space is shaped and negotiated. Multiple power dynamics and ideological tension around the production and consumption of social space are explored through diverse examples within the contexts of spaces of consumption, public space as shared good and digital space. The authors offer a conceptualisation of spatial vulnerability and a framework to understand, critique and transform socio-spatial disadvantages. The spatial perspective offered in this article illuminates the ways in which marketplace vulnerability can be institutionalised and become pervasive through and within spaces of everyday life. Yet, the creative and radical potential of social space in managing spatial disadvantages is also explored along with theoretical, managerial, public policy and practical implications.     

矿业城市人地系统的脆弱性及其评价体系

根据对脆弱性内涵及其研究内容的分析,可以得出矿业城市人地系统脆弱性属于人类活动胁迫型脆弱性的结论,具有不稳定性、敏感性、易损失性等特征.通过分析经济、社会、自然三个子系统脆弱性产生的因素,建立相应的脆弱性评价指标体系,在深入分析脆弱性和可持续发展之间关系的基础上,综合评价矿业城市人地系统脆弱性,为矿业城市实现可持续发展提供理论依据.     

“How are you vulnerable?”: Using participation for vulnerability analysis in emergency planning

Scientists in many fields of research have developed models, theories, and concepts attempting to grasp and manage dangers that are often difficult to imagine. Among the different perspectives, the science and technology studies (STS) vulnerability approach seems very promising. Relying on a constructivist paradigm, it is based on an inductive collection and analysis of a wide range of factors, with a particular focus on cultural factors and actual day-to-day practices. In this paper, we present the roots of this approach and we display findings based on three case studies exploring emergency planning in three different contexts (a city near a SEVESO plant, a school near a nuclear plant, and a city confronted to multiple catastrophic scenarios). The cases studies were realized by conducting three Focus Groups with different types of stakeholders (citizens, teachers, firemen, decision-makers, etc.). After presenting the results of the case studies, we discuss how stakeholders’ participation can inform such type of vulnerability analysis in the context of emergency planning. We argue that participation fosters a deep understanding of actual safety governance practices which allows innovative results to emerge as well as it initiates a learning process among the participants. It contributes to questioning the relations between decision-makers, experts, and citizens. It has the potential of bypassing the positivist and quantitative rationale of safety, and thus, of redefining the vulnerability governance. As a conclusion, we question the role of such STS vulnerability approach within the actual vulnerability governance.     

沿海城市人地关系地域系统脆弱性研究——以大连市为例

脆弱性是全球环境变化研究的热点和前沿领域,是多个科学计划的重要研究内容。人地关系地域系统是海洋经济地理研究中一个重点内容,将区域可持续发展研究推向纵深。利用大连市1996—2007年综合发展水平数据,根据区域经济发展、资源环境消耗、社会发展的相互关系,采用三角图分析方法,通过敏感性、适应性、恢复性等进行指标筛选,构建沿海城市脆弱性指标体系,建立脆弱性评价模型,对大连市人地关系地域系统的脆弱性进行了初步探索,结果表明:①大连市人地关系地域系统脆弱性逐年降低,连续12年脆弱性类型均为ERS型;②从趋势上看,经济子系统的脆弱值逐渐降低;③社会子系统的脆弱值逐渐下降,并且降低速度较快;④资源环境子系统的脆弱值逐年增加,在2003—2007年间,占大连市人地关系地域系统的1/3以上,该子系统为目前影响大连市人地关系地域系统的主要系统。     

Teddy bears

This is a story of an iconic toy, the Teddy Bear. What makes Teddy Bears so special? The paper ponders this question by way of reflecting the author's lifelong relation to her own Teddy. The result of this reflection is that it is Teddies’ cuteness, bearness and softness as well as their unique role as intimate bedmates that makes them so special. Altogether, it seems that the secret behind Teddy Bears’ success is that they manifest and embody human vulnerability.     

供应链风险类别、脆弱性因素及管理方法解析

在既竞争又合作的前提下,企业之间结成的联盟形式,导致了供应链的形成.由于大量不确定性因素的存在,往往在某个风险出现的情况下,就引起了供应链的中断,显现出了整个供应链的脆弱性,供应链的各种风险也由此而产生.供应链脆弱性的因素主要包括注重效率、业务外包的趋势、全球化的影响、集中生产和销售、供应商数量的减少、需求的频繁变化以及缺乏可视性和缺乏信心等等.解决供应链风险管理的方法,主要包括双重来源采购和多方采购;供应商早期参与以及稳健型供应链的构建等.