我国经济系统脆弱性与可持续发展牵扯:15年样本

运用集对分析法和熵值法从敏感性和应对性两个角度对1995~2009年我国经济系统脆弱性进行分析。研究表明:在1995~2009年我国经济系统脆弱性呈不断下降趋势,说明经济系统安全性和可持续能力在不断增强。但从敏感性看,困扰我国经济发展的问题却不减反增,增加了经济脆弱性上升的内在倾向。化解经济危机、降低经济脆弱性应克服就业、消费与投资、研发支出,以及能源环境问题等主要障碍,迅速提升经济系统应对性。     

沿海地区受台风影响的易损性指标体系与应急管理策略

台风灾害一直是威胁我国沿海地区经济社会发展的一个重大障碍。构建承灾体的社会经济易损性评价指标体系,运用统计学方法对沿海地区受台风影响的社会经济易损性进行实证分析后发现,我国沿海地区受台风影响的社会经济易损性空间分布不均匀。台风灾害频发的沿海地方政府应通过制定防台应急预案,构建全面的应急预警体系,建立统一的自然灾害信息系统和信息公开机制,引入政策性金融工具建立灾后恢复、补偿的财政保障机制,从而构建一个专门针对台风灾害的应急响应机制。     

供应链脆弱性研究评述

供应链是企业最直接的生存环境,供应链脆弱性指供应链层面上因供应链环境的动态性和供应链内部的复杂性而使其易受外界干扰的缺陷。供应链脆弱性能导致供应链中断,使供应链风险变为现实,从而严重影响供应链企业及供应链整体绩效,供应链脆弱性及其应对措施研究具有重要意义。而由于供应链脆弱性研究历史较短,需要做的工作很多,任务非常艰巨。文章在对供应链脆弱性研究现状进行概括与总结的基础上指出,今后应进一步加强对供应链脆弱性形成原因、评价指标、应对措施及实践热点等问题的研究,为今后的工作理清思路。     

基于系统科学的中国粮食安全评价研究

中国的粮食安全问题不仅关系着国家发展,也影响着世界粮食市场。该文采用系统论的方法,将粮食安全系统分解为自然系统、支撑系统和调配系统3个子系统,以存在性、自由性、有效性、稳定性、适应性作为基础指示器,分析评价粮食系统中各个环节的安全脆弱因子及其相互作用机制,并建立其评价指标体系和区域粮食安全系统安全评价模型。在此基础上,以县级行政区为研究单位,建立中国区域粮食安全评估基本方法体系,确定了中国粮食安全的脆弱环节和脆弱因子,主要表现在农业生产效率低下不稳定、农业投入和基础建设不足、粮食调配效率低等方面,并呈现比较明显的空间分异特征。     

干旱区绿洲城市经济系统脆弱性评价研究

我国东部沿海地区向中西部地区产业转移明显加快,西部地区矿产资源大规模开发,西北干旱区工业化和城镇化快速发展,绿洲城市作为区域经济发展中心面临着产业结构调整、消费结构升级等问题。从脆弱性的角度,运用综合评价方法,以新疆为例分析评价了干旱区绿洲城市经济系统的脆弱程度,并从城市规模、空间分布等方面分析了其表现特征。结果表明:绿洲城市经济系统脆弱性强度随着城市规模和等级的提高而降低;在空间分布上呈现出东疆绿洲城市经济系统脆弱程度最高,南疆和北疆较低;从敏感性和恢复力与脆弱性的关系来看,经济系统的恢复力对脆弱性的贡献度较高,努力提高绿洲城市经济发展综合水平,加快产业结构升级是提高绿洲城市经济可持续发展有效途径。     

MEASURING POVERTY USING BOTH INCOME AND WEALTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY COMPARISON BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SPAIN

We study the correspondence between a household's income and its vulnerability to income shocks in two developed countries: the U.S. and Spain. Vulnerability is measured by the availability of wealth to smooth consumption in a multidimensional approach to poverty, which allows us to identify three groups of households: the twice‐poor group, which includes income‐poor households who lack an adequate stock of wealth; the group of protected‐poor households, which are all those income‐poor families with a buffer stock of wealth they can rely on; and the vulnerable‐non‐poor group, including households above the income‐poverty line that do not hold any stock of wealth. Interestingly, the risk of belonging to these groups changes over the life‐cycle in both countries while the size of the groups differs significantly between Spain and the U.S., although this result is quite sensitive to whether the housing wealth component is included in the wealth measure or not.     

中国能源安全体系脆弱性研究

能源安全体系的稳定性是国家能源战略的核心,能源安全体系的脆弱性威胁着国家的生存与发展;作为世界上最大的发展中能源生产和消费大国,中国的能源安全问题同时也是国际关注的焦点之一;试图通过定性和定量两种手段对中国能源安全体系脆弱性的相关问题进行初步分析,找出降低能源安全体系脆弱性,有效防范和化解能源风险的能源安全战略,为建立有力的国家能源安全保障体系提供一定的理论支持。     

农村老年居民婚姻状况对商业养老保险的吸附力研究

伴随着老年婚姻状况的变动,农村老年居民的养老问题不容忽视。由于社会保障制度在农村地区的长期缺位,使得商业养老保险在农村地区赢得了广阔的市场空间。本文从农村老年居民婚姻状况的现实分析入手,在总结了由婚姻状况引发的养老困境的基础上,比较了传统的家庭养老模式、农村社会养老保险制度以及商业养老保险在农村地区的发展态势,并且以安徽省为例就目前农村居民对商业养老保险的现实购买力进行了剖析,认为商业养老保险在部分农村地区是可行的,而构建我国农村地区的商业养老保险制度的适当模式尤为重要。     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

Urban Responses to Climate Change: Theories and Governance Practice in Cities of the Global South

Cities around the world have recently started to become ‘proactive’ initiators of climate strategies containing both mitigation and adaptation elements. The experience of these first movers has been studied and documented both empirically and, to a lesser extent, theoretically, primarily for cities in the global North. This symposium addresses related knowledge gaps by exploring case studies of urban regions in the global South confronting their projected climate change challenges, showcasing the experiences of Delhi, Santiago de Chile and Bogotá. Its specific aim is to explore the urban social response to nature change, the adaptation challenges faced by cities across the world and current practices of urban adaptation. Further, the symposium seeks to understand to what extent and in what respect current conceptual frameworks — which highlight urban ecological security and vulnerability — provide a useful context/framing to assist cities in confronting their challenges and to explain their actions. This introductory article examines current knowledge of the theory and practice of urban climate response. It introduces the concepts of ecological security and vulnerability and discusses the adaptive capacity of cities and how they are starting to respond to the emerging challenges of climate change. It concludes with a synthesis of the case articles and highlights some of the findings.