石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生过程、机理及程度研究——以大庆市为例

石油城市作为资源型城市的一种,具有许多有别并严重于其它综合性城市的脆弱性问题。其中,石油资源主导下的经济系统脆弱性尤为突出并亟待调整规避。以石油城市为研究对象,探讨其经济系统脆弱性发生的过程、机理和特征。从人口、资源、环境与发展四方面分析了石油城市经济系统的特殊发展条件;指出石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生的四个过程,即:城市形成期——脆弱性产生、城市成长期——脆弱性增强但具有隐蔽性、城市成熟期——潜在脆弱性巨大、城市转型期——脆弱性接近最大化。认为"刚性的产业结构、接续产业发展不完善、替代产业不发达、产业转型困难、石油资源日益枯竭"是石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生的主要因素。构建脆弱性评估指标体系和评估模型,并以大庆市为例进行脆弱性程度评估,进而得出大庆市经济系统脆弱性呈逐步降低趋势,但是仍处在中等脆弱水平的结论。     

Quality financial inclusion and financial vulnerability

Despite existing evidence suggesting that financial inclusion enhances consumers' welfare, there has been no attempt to examine the link between financial inclusion and financial vulnerability, measured along multiple dimensions. We computed more comprehensive indices of financial vulnerability and financial inclusion using polychoric principal component analysis based on a nationally representative financial inclusion survey in South Africa. Results from quantile regressions show that only the top 20% of the financially included had lower vulnerability but the effect was weaker among the more vulnerable categories. Also, the decline in financial vulnerability was less pronounced when financial inclusion was narrowly defined by excluding quality indicators. These findings suggest that financial inclusion is benefitting a few consumers in South Africa which points to the need for a bottom-up approach in designing financial products that improve the welfare of the financially included consumers.     

“加剧”还是“缓解”：政府转移支付与农户家庭未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析

基于2018年CFPS数据和Logit模型分析政府转移支付对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及异质性。研究表明：政府转移支付总体上对农户家庭贫困脆弱性并未产生积极的改善效果,反而进一步促进了农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加。从区域异质性看,政府转移支付对贫困脆弱性的正向促进作用主要体现在中、西部地区,并且以中部地区尤为明显。从家庭特征看,政府转移支付主要促使收入贫困农户、非融资约束农户、非土地流转农户、非组织参与农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加,并且对绝对贫困农户的促进效应要大于相对贫困农户。对非收入贫困户、土地流转户和组织参与户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。从户主特征看,政府转移支付主要对户主健康家庭、自雇户主家庭的贫困脆弱性产生正向促进效应,对稳定受雇户主家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。     

基于复杂网络理论的物流服务供应链网络脆弱性机理研究

文章针对现实运作物流服务供应链网络系统的复杂性与关联性,对物流服务供应链复杂网络脆弱性进行研究。首先,在对供应链脆弱性进行归纳的基础上阐述物流服务供应链局域网络演化机理及拓扑结构特征,描述其复杂网络统计参数;其次,从供需结构复杂性、突发事件风险情景、无标度性及级联故障等方面揭示物流服务供应链网络脆弱性机制;最后,借鉴复杂网络中节点冗余、弱连接、结构均匀性及免疫策略等理论提出物流服务供应链网络脆弱性的防范对策。研究结论对节点企业采取有效防范措施保证物流服务供应链网络效率具有重要意义。     

城市脆弱性驱动因子分析

介绍了城市生态脆弱性的定义、特征及其研究尺度,讨论了城市生态脆弱性评价的科学基础及目标,着重阐述了城市生态脆弱性评价的方法。城市生态脆弱性的综合评价必须包括暴露—压力、敏感性、恢复力三个范畴。建立了通用的压力—敏感性—恢复力概念框架。基于此框架,进行驱动力分析。     

长春市城市综合防灾规划技术路线研究

长春市综合防灾规划技术路线是长春市综合防灾规划的专题研究之一.本文从规划的研究方法、研究内容入手,对综合防灾规划的步骤、内容、方法进行详尽的探讨,并在组织方式上提出自己的建议.这里参考了王江波的<我国城市综合防灾规划编制方法研究> (规划师2007.1)、翟宝辉等编著的<城市综合防灾>及周锡元教授的<城市进程中的安全与减灾> (提纲2004.12)中的部分.最重要的是在结合长春市常见灾种的情势下,从内容、方法、研究思路上有所创新.在最后结论与建议中指出:城市综合防灾规划是关系国计民生的一件大事,已经引起国家有关部门的高度关注.目前全国许多城市正在做城市综合防灾规划方面的研究,这是一个好的兆头.城市综合防灾规划及研究正在形成一种态势.为此,鉴于城市综合防灾规划研究的重要性、迫切性,建议长春市应结合城市总体规划的修订,编制城市综合防灾规划.     

From vulnerability to transformation: a framework for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of tourism destinations

Tourism is a key driver of global socio-economic progress. However, its sustainability is at risk from multiple shocks and hazards that threaten livelihoods. Surprisingly little is known about the complex drivers of destination vulnerability, leading to the creation and application of ineffective resilience-building solutions. The paper presents the Destination Sustainability Framework (DSF) designed to assess destination vulnerability and resilience, and support successful resilience-building initiatives. Holistic in nature, the DSF comprises: (1) the shock(s) or stressor(s); (2) the interconnected dimensions of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity, and system adaptiveness; (3) the dynamic feedback loops that express the multiple outcomes of actions taken (or not); (4) the contextualised root causes that shape destinations and their characteristics; (5) the various spatial scales; and (6) multiple timeframes within which social-ecological change occurs. This innovative framework is significant because it's the first framework to chart the complex manifestation of vulnerability and resilience in tourism destinations. Further, it brings tourism sustainability research in line with wider debates on achieving sustainability within the dynamic coupled human–environment system, doing so through the inclusion of insights from contemporary systems approaches, including chaos–complexity theory, vulnerability approaches, sustainability science, resilience thinking, along with the geographies of scale, place and time.     

Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

Social risks and challenges in post-disaster resettlement: the case of Lake Nyos,Cameroon

This paper examines contemporary challenges in post-disaster resettlement in Cameroon. The focus is on the ongoing post-disaster experiences of survivors who were resettled in seven camps after the Lake Nyos Disaster in 1986. Empirical data obtained at the Ukpwa Waindo resettlement camp were used for analysis of impoverishment due to relocation and resettlement. Cameroon’s weak macroeconomic situation that started a quarter century ago had serious consequences for the country’s socio-economic trends, which is partly responsible for the slow recovery of disaster survivors. However, an analysis of social vulnerability using Cernea’s Impoverishment Risk and Reconstruction model shows how the involuntary resettlement of disaster survivors has itself created deep seated socio-economic and cultural consequences. By analysing their socio-economic situation, this article shows that resettlement is not merely a housing solution, but a complex, multi-dimensional process, with potentially very high negative impact if not properly planned and implemented. Therefore, the lessons learnt from this resettlement experience can be applied to ensure that resettlement becomes an opportunity to improve resilience and living conditions of the stricken population, and reduce exposure to disaster risk. There is urgent need for the government to tackle these long-term socio-economic problems faced by the disaster survivors, and to develop an effective policy to reconstruct, protect, improve or at least restore the livelihoods of those subject to resettlement.     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources for emergency water supply

The submitted paper proposes the possible use of integrated semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources. There are risks resulting from both natural and anthropogenic hazard sources. Activation of these types of hazard sources can cause damage to, or destruction of, particular hydrogeological structures and technological equipment of selected groundwater resources suitable for the emergency drinking water supply of the population. The process of risk assessment is based on the described register of hazards, including semi-quantitative assessment of the frequency with which the assessed sources of hazards are activated, the register of sensitivity together with the semi-quantitative sensitivity assessment of selected threatened elements of the assessed water resource and the determination of their criticality. The semi-quantitative risk assessment should become one of the important criteria for classifying groundwater resources which have been proposed for emergency water supply. The classification carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned principle can contribute to faster selection and effective use of groundwater resources, as well as to the enhancement of emergency and crisis planning systems when the public system is either damaged or destroyed.