Risk,learning, and technology adoption

This article explores how decision makers learn and use information, with an application to the adoption of biotechnology in agriculture. The empirical analysis relies on experimental and survey data measuring risk preferences, learning processes, and the adoption of genetically modified (GM) seeds among U.S. grain farmers. While controlling for risk aversion, we link individual learning rules with the cognitive abilities of each decision maker and their actual GM adoption decisions. We find evidence that very few individuals are Bayesian learners, and that the population of farmers is quite heterogeneous in terms of learning rules. This suggests that Bayesian learning (as commonly assumed in the analysis of agricultural technology adoption) is not an appropriate characterization. In addition, we do not find a strong relationship between observed learning styles and the timing of GM seed adoption. To the extent that learning is a key part of the process of technology adoption, this suggests the presence of much unobserved heterogeneity in learning among farmers.     

Measuring soil quality dynamics A role for economists, and implications for economic analysis

Measuring soil quality is extremely difficult, yet it has clear economic importance. In particular, there is a great deal of empirical interest in the dynamics of soil quality evolution when land managers respond to policies and other incentives. Yet current methodologies for measuring changes in agricultural land quality are largely static and rely heavily either on incomplete measures such as proxy variables, or ad hoc indexes of selected soil characteristics. Moreover, much empirical work relies on static econometric techniques or simulation models. In this paper, we develop a means to infer soil quality changes from input and output data using a dynamic production function model. Using data from field experiments, we estimate the model in a way that allows the recovery of a dynamic measure of soil quality whose evolution depends on variations in management practices. Our methodology and findings will help provide firmer empirical foundations for analyses of the economic implications of land degradation and the soil quality implications of agricultural policies.     

The Dynamics of Agricultural Biotechnology Adoption: Lessons from series rBST Use in Wisconsin, 1994–2001

This article exploits panel data from Wisconsin dairy farmers to examine the dynamics of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rBST) adoption and to identify the characteristics that distinguish among nonadopters, disadopters, and early and late adopters. Panel methods are used to control for omitted variables and endogenous regressors that call into question coefficient estimates derived from cross-section adoption models. The results, however, confirm previous findings that larger farms with complementary feeding technologies are more likely to adopt rBST, nonadopters appear quite unlikely to become adopters, and rBST adoption will remain at rather moderate levels in Wisconsin.     

Sustaining linkages to high value markets through collective action in Uganda

Uganda’s rapid urbanization offers new market opportunities for smallholder farmers to supply higher value markets such as supermarket chains and fast-food restaurants. Supplying these formal outlets offers higher incomes but accessing and maintaining links to these markets requires significant upgrading in terms of product quality and business management. To meet these conditions farmers need to become more organized which requires increased levels of social capital, to strengthen internal and external relations with group members, service providers and market chain actors. One farmers’ group in south-western Uganda has successfully sustained sales of potatoes to a fast-food outlet in Kampala. Farmers had to learn a series of new skills and integrate multiple technical, organizational, financial and marketing innovations. This paper outlines how collective action combined with strong leadership and an iterative market-led learning process enabled a smallholder farmers’ association to meet the considerable challenges of achieving the stringent quality parameters of a modern food outlet.     

Synergies or Trade-Offs in University Life Sciences Research

Major legislative, legal, and technological changes paved the way for a period of remarkable growth in the patenting of life science research by U.S. universities in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a multiple-output cost framework and two decades of panel data on ninety-six universities, this article examines whether economies of scope and/or scale are present in university production of three major life science research outputs: journal articles, patents, and doctorates. The results show strong evidence of economies of scale in life science research production with mixed evidence of economies of scope between articles and patents.     

Chores

We analyze situations where the provision of each of c public goods must be voluntarily assumed by exactly one of n private agents in the absence of transfer schemes or binding contracts. We model this problem as a complete information, potentially infinite horizon game where n agents simultaneously wage c wars of attrition. Providing a public good commits an agent not to take on the provision of another public good for a fixed period. We explore the strategic trade-offs that this commitment ability and the multiplicity of tasks provide. Subgame perfect equilibria (SPEs) are characterized completely for games with two agents and two public goods. For games with two identical agents and c > 1 identical public goods, we establish that an equilibrium that yields a surplus-maximizing outcome always exists and we provide sufficient conditions under which it is the unique equilibrium outcome. We show that under mild conditions, the surplus-maximizing SPE is the unique symmetric SPE. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: H41, C72, D13.     

Migration,remittances, and inequality: estimating the net effects of migration on income distribution

"This paper examines the net effects of migration and remittances on income distribution. Potential home earnings of migrants are imputed, as are the earnings of non-migrants in migrant households, in order to construct no-migration counterfactuals to compare with the observed income distribution including remittances. The earnings functions used to impute migrant home earnings are estimated from observations on non-migrants in a selection-corrected estimation framework which incorporates migration choice and labor-force participation decisions. For a sample of households in Bluefields, Nicaragua, migration and remittances increase income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual."     

A theory of rational marriage and divorce

Despite high rates of cohabitation before marriage, and considerable efforts invested in the search for a life partner, a high number of marriages end in divorce. This paper develops a model of household formation and dissolution in which it may be rational for individuals to marry, fully anticipating that they will subsequently divorce. Economies of scale associated with living as a couple rather than in two separate households provide an incentive to marry; problems with free riding in the provision of household collective goods may lead to divorce. Marriages which involve partners who are similar, in tastes or in their productive capacities, and in which private goods are equally shared, are the most likely to be stable. In contrast, marriages which involve very disparate partners, or which share the fruits of market labor very unequally between the partners, are more likely to be shortlived and end in divorce.