Stable mixture GARCH models

A new model class for univariate asset returns is proposed which involves the use of mixtures of stable Paretian distributions, and readily lends itself to use in a multivariate context for portfolio selection. The model nests numerous ones currently in use, and is shown to outperform all its special cases. In particular, an extensive out-of-sample risk forecasting exercise for seven major FX and equity indices confirms the superiority of the general model compared to its special cases and other competitors. Estimation issues related to problems associated with mixture models are discussed, and a new, general, method is proposed to successfully circumvent these. The model is straightforwardly extended to the multivariate setting by using an independent component analysis framework. The tractability of the relevant characteristic function then facilitates portfolio optimization using expected shortfall as the downside risk measure.     

‘It's almost like taking the sales out of selling’—Towards a conceptualization of value-based selling in business markets

While the creation of superior customer value is regarded as fundamental to a firm's long-term survival and growth, little is known about the effective implementation of a firm's value orientation at sales force level. As the sales force plays a pivotal role in implementing marketing strategies, this study adopts a discovery oriented approach and conceptualizes value-based selling as an effective sales approach in business markets. Based on in-depth interviews with sales managers in a variety of industries, we identify and portray three salient dimensions of value-based selling, namely (1) understanding the customer's business model, (2) crafting the value proposition, and (3) communicating customer value. The selling behavior entails a mutual orientation and focuses on the value-in-use potential of the offering for the customer's business profits. We argue that value-based selling is a unique concept that differs from the established selling approaches and propose a conceptual model linking value-based selling to performance outcomes. To further advance our knowledge about the effective implementation of a firm's value orientation, we identify future research avenues embracing qualitative and quantitative research methodologies.     

Will they buy it? The potential for marketing organic vegetables in the food vending sector to strengthen vegetable safety: A choice experiment study in three West African cities

Considering the hazardous use of synthetic pesticides in vegetable production in urban West Africa, this research investigated the marketing potential of organic vegetables in the food vending sector of Cotonou (Benin), Accra (Ghana) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). Certified organic production and marketing was examined as a potential strategy to improve chemical food safety. A stratified random sampling strategy was applied to study the preferences of food vendors (n = 180) and consumers (n = 360); vegetable use, risk perception, choice preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for organic certification were specifically analyzed. The results showed that awareness of chemical contamination risks was generally low. Appearance of a product was central to vendor choice; consumers attributed similar utility to taste and organic certification. Consumer WTP was calculated to be a premium of 1.04 USD (per plate) if the food served contained only certified organic vegetables. In restaurants, this would mean an average premium of 19% for a meal. If certified organic vegetable production is to make a positive impact on food safety in urban West Africa, we suggest concentrating marketing efforts on the educated “elite” who frequent restaurants. However, considering that restaurant owners exhibited a lower preference for organic certification than lower class food vendors, the marketing situation is difficult. We therefore conclude that demand from the food vending sector alone will not institutionalize domestic certification mechanisms; this underlines the need for public commitment to facilitating such change.     

Attitudes and Preferences of Kosovar Consumer Segments Toward Quality Attributes of Milk and Dairy Products

ABSTRACT

The dairy market is one of the fastest growing agri-food sectors in Kosovo, yet the farm structure is fragmented. The level of productivity is lower compared with European Union levels and shows potential for improvements. The consumption of dairy products is expected to rise due to income growth and segmentation of consumers that would reflect different preferences for low-fat or zero-fat products, products with natural additives, and so on. On the market level, a significant share of the consumed milk and dairy products is imported. This study aims to better understand attitudes and preferences of Kosovar consumer segments toward milk and dairy products. A quantitative survey with 300 consumers was conducted in major Kosovo cities. Applying a reduced version of the Food Related Lifestyle instrument identified three distinct consumer segments: the conservative consumer segment, the socially oriented foodie, and the information-seeking eco-consumer. The latter two segments are especially open to trying new food products and actively search information about food. All three consumer segments show strong consumer patriotism by believing that domestic milk and cheese are safer than imported products and are of higher quality. This indicates the strong market potential for dairy farmers and companies in the Kosovo, which should develop new food products having these segments in mind. The authors explore the strategies that farmers and companies should use to better target these consumer groups and gain greater access to desirable segments.     

The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna

A case-control study of the car-free model housing project in Vienna was conducted to evaluate whether people living in this settlement have more ‘sustainable lifestyles’ than people living in comparable buildings in Vienna. Another aim was to identify the lifestyle characteristics and household activities which significantly influence the environmental impact of the residents of the car-free housing project and a control group. The control group, referred to as the reference settlement, was chosen from a nearby building complex, with similar characteristics, but without the car-free feature. Household consumption patterns were estimated based on interviews in combination with data from the Austrian consumer expenditure survey and the national accounts. The evaluation of household environmental impacts uses emissions estimates from the Austrian national accounting matrices including environmental accounts and data from life-cycle assessments. Households from the car-free settlement have substantially lower environmental impacts in the categories of ground transportation and energy use; their CO₂ emissions of these two categories are less than 50% of those living in the reference settlement. The households in the car-free settlement have somewhat higher emissions in the categories air transport, nutrition, and ‘other’ consumption, reflecting the higher income per-capita. As a result, the CO₂ emissions are only slightly lower than in the reference settlement, but the emissions intensity is 20% lower. Both household groups have significantly lower environmental impacts than the Austrian average reflecting less car use and cleaner heating energy in Vienna.     

Time-driven activity-based cost analysis for outpatient anticoagulation therapy: direct costs in a primary care setting with optimal performance

Objectives: To determine how overall cost of anticoagulation therapy for warfarin compares with that of Novel Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs). Also, to demonstrate a scientific, comprehensive, and an analytical approach to estimate direct costs involved in monitoring and management of anticoagulation therapy for outpatients in an academic primary care clinic setting, post-initiation of therapy.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in conjunction with observations of patient care processes between August 2014 and January 2015. The study was conducted in an academic primary care outpatient setting at Mayo Clinic’s warfarin anticoagulation clinic, Rochester, MN. The anticoagulation clinic serves patients 18?years of age or older in Warfarin therapy management, for any indication, after referral from the patient’s primary care provider. The study included anticoagulation clinic enrollment data on a population of 5,526 patients. Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) technique was applied. Detailed process flow maps which showed process steps for all the anticoagulation program components and care continuum phases were created. Staff roles associated with each of the process steps were identified and displayed on the maps. Process times and costs were captured and analyzed. The main outcome was direct cost of monitoring and management of anticoagulation therapy, post-initiation of therapy.

Results: The cost of warfarin management for patients who display unstable International Normalized Ratio (INR) is more than three times those who display stable INR over time. (Comparator to distinguish stability: Frequency of point-of-care visits needed by patients.) For complex anticoagulation patients, total cost of medication and monitoring for warfarin anticoagulation therapy is similar to that for NOACs.

Conclusion: Despite warfarin being significantly less expensive to purchase than NOACs, overall warfarin management incurs higher costs due to laboratory monitoring and provider time than NOACs. NOAC treatment, therefore, may not be more expensive than warfarin therapy management for complex anticoagulation patients.     

奥地利有机农业发展的经验与启示

一、奥地利有机农业发展的历史与现状 20世纪中叶,人类开始了环境意识的觉醒,人们的食品安全意识也随之提高,消费者对纯天然、无污染的健康食品的需求逐渐增加.     

Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Both unconditional mixed normal distributions and GARCH modelswith fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employedin the literature for modeling financial data. We consider amixed normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure(termed MN-GARCH) which allows for conditional variance in eachof the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components.Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specificationsare discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. For theempirically most relevant GARCH(1,1) case, the conditions forexistence of arbitrary integer moments are given and analyticexpressions of the unconditional skewness, kurtosis, and autocorrelationsof the squared process are derived. Finally, employing dailyreturn data on the NASDAQ index, we provide a detailed empiricalanalysis and compare both the in-sample fit and out-of-sampleforecasting performance of the MN-GARCH as well as recentlyproposed Markov-switching models. We show that the MN-GARCHapproach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditionalvariance process in which the components' volatility dynamicshave a clearly distinct behavior, which is, for example, compatiblewith the well-known leverage effect.     

Resourcing evidence-based practice in ambulatory care nursing

Ambulatory care nurses may benefit from not only developing knowledge and skills in evidence-based practice (EBP), but also in identifying and providing sufficient resources for EBP to be implemented and sustained. Organizations should select one of the five conceptual models available in the literature to guide development and implementation of EBP. Costs of implementing and sustaining EBP include expert consultation, facilitators, staff time, informatician time, and data management. Benefits of EBP include improvements in patient care quality and safety, as well as regulatory compliance and risk management. Resources supporting EBP include professional literature available via the Internet and databases or agencies, such as ARHQ, professional organizations, and funding through grants.