完善我国银行信息灾难备份体系的新思路

本文疏理了西方部分发达国家银行信息灾难备份体系的经验和教训,论述了我国银行信息灾难备份体系的发展和不足。根据我国独特国情和所处的国际环境,从战略上研究了如何提高银行信息资源安全和灾备中心抗灾能力,提出了完善我国银行信息灾难备份体系的新思路。     

The Impacts of Changes in Key Economic Variables on Crop Rotational Choices on Ontario Cash-Cropping Farms

This study is a sequel to one providing a methodological framework for evaluating the economic and soil-erosion effects associated with different crop rotational systems involving corn on southern Ontario cash-cropping farms. A multi-period linear programming (MPLP) model is used to estimate the impact on rational crop rotational choices, fam-level profitability and soil-erosion rates of having different values for the more important economic variables. The variables examined are relative cash-crop prices, fossil fuel energy-related production costs, discount rates, and values attached to soil lost through erosion. The MPLP model is solved in turn for each of a range of values for one of the economic variables at a time, the selection of values being based upon recent historical experience. Where no change in rotational system is prompted within the range, the MPLP model is used to find the value of each economic variable that would be required to trigger the choice of some alternative rotational system. Each of these model runs is performed for the case where yields of all crops over a 20-year time horizon are firstly assumed constant, and secondly assumed to suffer a cumulative decline. Cet article fait suite à une étude méthodologique dont le but a été d'valuer les effets économiques et érosifs de systémes de production produisant essentiellement du maïs en rotation avec d'autres cultures. Cette méthode d'analyse est appliquée à des exploitations agricoles localisées dans le Sud de I'Ontario et specialisées dans les cultures commerciales. Pour ce faire, un modéle linéaire multi-période (MPLP) est utilisé pour estimer I'impact d'un changement dans les principales variables économiques sur le choix des rotations culturales, le niveau de rentabilité des systémes de production et les taux d'érosion des sols. Les variables économiques prises en compte sont les prix relatifs des cultures commerciales, les coûts de production associés à la consommation d'énergie fossile, les taux d'actualisation et les pertes absolues en sol dues à l'érosion. Le modéle linéaire (MPLP) est de nouveaurésolu pour chaque variable économique en les paramétrisant sur un intervalle de valeurs selectionnées à partir de donntes historiques récentes. Lorsqu'il n'y a aucun changement dans la rotation culturale, le modéle détermine le niveau de chaque variable qui entrainerait la prise en considération d'une rotation culturale alternative. Toutes les simulations ont été effectuées sur une période de vingt ans en adoptant deux variantes sur I'tvolution des ren-dements des cultures commerciales: premierèment, les rendements restent constants durant toute la période, et deuxiémement, les rendements décroissent de maniére cumulative.     

价值投资与行业轮动相结合的量化择股策略研究

把价值投资和行业轮动相结合进行量化择股,可以吸收两者的优点、避免各自的缺点。从实践的角度上看,这两者相结合,可以在投资的稳健程度和收益率之间找到更加有利的均衡。     

Regulating the Market for Audit Services: A Game Theoretic Approach

We apply game theory to model how alternative mandatory audit firm rotation regimes can affect the strategic interaction between auditee and auditor firms, and analyze potential consequences on detection risk and impairment of auditor scepticism. The major results suggest that: (1) relative to an initial state with no rotation requirement but high probability for impaired auditor scepticism, imposing either short-term or long-term mandatory audit firm rotation will remove the threat to auditor scepticism and lead to higher audit fees and lower detection risk; (2) relative to long-term mandatory audit firm rotation, imposing a short-term rotation will lead to lower audit fees and higher detection risk, resulting from greater informational frictions. We further find that imposing supplementary regulatory instruments, such as increased regulatory scrutiny of the auditee and/or auditor, can be used to lower the detection risk and increase audit quality. We discuss implications of these findings for empirical research.     

Effects of resin tapping on optimal rotation age of pine plantation

This paper analyses the effects of resin benefit on the optimal rotation age of Simao pine plantation. Timber growth and resin yield functions were first derived, and then an integrated formulation for Hartman rotation was solved by taking both timber and resin benefits into consideration through numerical optimization. Empirical results indicate that: (1) the inclusion of resin benefit results in lengthening optimal rotation age; (2) resin benefit has a greater effect on rotation age when discount rate is low than when it is high, ceteris paribus; (3) with an improvement of site productivity, resin benefit has a decreasing effect on rotation age, other factors being constant. These effects are also true with respect to benefit gains in present value.     

Market and welfare implications of the reservation price strategy for forest harvest decisions

Previous studies have reported significant gains from adopting the adaptive harvest strategy under conditions of timber price uncertainty. For the final harvest decision in even-aged stand management, the adaptive strategy typically means that a stand is harvested when the timber price is sufficiently high, whereas low prices are avoided by postponing the harvest. Such a harvest behavior may have significant impacts on the future price process, which in turn affects the landowner's profits. Moreover, it would certainly affect the timber-based industry and consumers. This paper assesses these impacts in a hypothetical timber market, using the Faustmann rule (FR) as a benchmark. The results show that changing from the FR to the reservation price strategy (RPS) reduces the supply of timber, thereby pushes up the price level. The RPS significantly reduces the short-run random variation of timber price. In the long run, both the mean and the variance of the timber price tend to stabilize. Depending on the anticipated price variation underlying the RPS, the expected timber price may be close to, or much higher than, the benchmark level, and the variance of price can be very large or very small. The welfare effect of the RPS is small if the anticipated variance of timber price used to optimize the RPS is small. If the anticipated variance of price is large, then the RSP leads to significant increase in the landowners’ profits and at the same time reduces the consumer surplus by a much larger amount.