Die statistischen Gesetze des Gleichgewichtes nach Henry Schultz

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Oskar Morgenstern, Wien.     

How images about emerging economies influence the willingness to accept expatriate assignments

Countries’ image is a multifaceted construct. Its symbolic dimensions have shown to play an important role both on consumer behavior and on the attraction that organizations can have during the recruitment process. This paper offers a comprehensive model of international mobility decisions encompassing the antecedents and consequences of perceptions about emerging economies, proposing that country image depends on individuals’ background and social identities. In this context, countries’ evaluations can play a major role on influencing the willingness to accept expatriate job offers. We used a within-subject design asking for opinions about hypothetical job offers on six particular host countries: Algeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Argentina, Chile, Angola and Mozambique. Survey results from more than 500 engineers, (125 French nationals, 121 Spanish and 131 Portuguese, with the remaining 138 coming from 42 different countries, yet working in 1 of the 3 above-mentioned European countries), evidence, that language proficiency influences the evaluation of specific expatriate locations. Our results also convey the critical role of the perceived level of safety and cultural attraction in predicting the willingness to accept expatriate job offers. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications for human resource management.     

Managing brand extension via licensing: An investigation into the high-end fashion industry

Brand managers are increasingly confronted with the option of licensing their brands when pursuing brand extensions. Such decisions are typically based on evaluation of the risks associated with such a contractual form, and with the nature of the asset at stake, i.e., the brand. Drawing on transaction cost economics and the brand extension literature, the authors investigate how managers balance the advantages of rapidly accessing new product categories through licensing with the risk of negative reciprocal effects and licensees' opportunistic behavior. Our results suggests that firms tend to be strategically conservative when examining how to extend their brands, as managers see the risk of negative effects on the parent brand as outweighing the advantages associated with licensing.     

Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental instrument in the efficient operational management and planning of electric utilities. Emerging smart grid technologies pose new challenges and opportunities. Although load forecasting at the aggregate level has been extensively studied, electrical load forecasting at fine-grained geographical scales of households is more challenging. Among existing approaches, semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) have been increasingly popular due to their accuracy, flexibility, and interpretability. Their applicability is justified when forecasting is addressed at higher levels of aggregation, since the aggregated load pattern contains relatively smooth additive components. High resolution data are highly volatile, forecasting the average load using GAM models with smooth components does not provide meaningful information about the future demand. Instead, we need to incorporate irregular and volatile effects to enhance the forecast accuracy. We focus on the analysis of such hybrid additive models applied on smart meters data and show that it leads to improvement of the forecasting performances of classical additive models at low aggregation levels.     

Cointegration and distance between differenced processes

In this note, it is argued that cointegration augments the distance between the differenced series. If two series, x _t and y _t , are integrated of order one and cointegrated and v _t and w _t are integrated of order one but not cointegrated then, under certain conditions, the distance between ??x _t and ??y _t is more than the distance between ??v _t and ??w _t .     

Non-causality: The role of the omitted variables

In this paper a proof is offered that if a variable Y₃ does not cause a variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₃) and Y₃ causes a variable Y₁ in higher-order system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃), then the omitted variable Y₂ must cause the variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₂) and in the trivariate system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃).     

Fiscal federalism and lobbying

Which government functions should be decentralized (resp. centralized) once lobbying behavior is taken into account? We find that the answer largely depends on how the interests of the regional lobbies are positioned with respect to the function to be decentralized (resp. centralized). When regional lobbies have conflicting interests, then lobbying is less damaging for social welfare under centralization than under decentralization. On the contrary, when regional lobbies have aligned interests, then lobbying is less damaging for social welfare under decentralization, provided that policy spillovers on the non-organized groups are not too strong.     

Fuzzy Value-at-risk: Accounting for Market Liquidity

In this paper we present a value-at-risk measure which accounts for market liquidity. We show that taking into account market liquidity implies a decoupling of valuation of long and short positions. We present a pricing model, named fuzzy measure model, that yields different values for positions of different sign and that can be usefully exploited to account for liquidity risk. This methodology is well-suited to price options when the distribution of the underlying asset is not known precisely, as in the case of implied options in corporate claims or real options. As an example, we apply our pricing technique to an option based model of value-at-risk, in line with the Merton and Perold approach, and we recover different value-at-risk figures for long and short positions.
(J.E.L.: C00, D81, G12).     

Theorie des Monopols mitzeitlich veränderlichen Preisen

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem italienischen Manuskript üubersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, Wien.     

The role of self-accounting and financial capability in consumer credit decisions

The role of financial capability in the consumers＇ financial behaviour has been widely analyzed by the literature. The same happened for the relationship between debt and financial capability. The consensus about the benefits of an increase in the levels of financial literacy collides with a diversity of opinions on what the best solutions to increase financial capability. While methods based on traditional teaching may not be an effective solutions and they could not provide results in the short term, solutions oriented to support consumers in important financial decisions （requests for funding, choice of retirement solutions, etc.） may show greater effectiveness. Studies in literature have shown the tendency of subjects with high levels of financial capability to adopt a long term view and to upgrade their daily financial behaviour with attitudes and practices related to self-finance （budget, financial check-up, saving for goals, etc.） The paper focuses on the relationship between financial capability and self-accounting practices, interpreting the latter as evidence of conduct financially aware. After a review of the literature designed to emphasize the role of self-accounting in the context of personal finance, a financial check-up based tool is proposed, pointing out how the financial accounts＇ schemes and logics （regular budget, estimates and forecasts checking targets） may find useful application in the context of personal finance.