LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

CHANCE AND CHOICE WEST OF THE DARLING

Twenty-one pastoralists in the West Darling region of New South Wales were interviewed to gain an understanding of the attitudes of managers in this high-risk pastoral area to uncertain prospects. It was found that pastoralists had no difficulty in specifying subjective probabilities but in modifying probabilistic information they were conservative relative to the 'correct' revision implied by Bayes' Theorem. All the surveyed pastoralists were non-indifferent to risk, as evidenced by their non-linear utility functions for gains and losses.     

Poverty in America 1970–1990: who did gain ground? An application of stochastic dominance criteria employing simultaneous inequality tests in a partial panel

Atkinson ( 1987 ) proposed stochastic dominance criteria for analysing poverty which, under certain conditions, establish orderings of states for any poverty line and any poverty measure within given class, refocusing debate on the nature of the income distribution of the poor. Employing new empirical techniques, these criteria are implemented for the United States from 1970 to 1990 using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Results highlight the pivotal role of family size scale economies in consumption, indicate different experiences for white versus non‐white groups and suggest that optimism over the progress of the poor is not warranted. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.     

Design and valuation of debt contracts

This articles studies the design and valuation of debt contractsin a general dynamic setting under uncertainty. We incorporatesome insights of the recent corporate finance literature intoa valuation framework. The basic framework is an extensive form game determined bythe terms of a debt contract and applicable bankruptcy laws.Debtholders and equityholders behave noncooperatively. The firm'sreorganization boundary is determined endogenously. Strategic debt service results in significantly higher defaultpremia at even small liquidation costs. Deviations from absolutepriority and forced liquidations occur along the equilibriumpath. The design tends to stress higher coupons and sinkingfunds when firms have a higher cash payout ratio.     

A note on odds in the cattle futures market

This paper investigates the odds of generating a 100-fold return in the cattle futures market. We employ cattle futures data for the period October 11, 1978, through July 31, 1979, to compute the probability of obtaining such a return. The tests are constructed to give the investor the benefit of the doubt whenever doubt exists. The most conservative finding is that the probability is one in approximately thirty-one trillion. Assuming that the return is made in the most efficient way possible, this probability falls to approximately 1.5×10⁻¹⁶.     

Efficient choice set designs for estimating availability cross-effects models

Batsell and Polking proposed a discrete choice model which incorporates the availability (presence or absence) of competing brands into the utility of each brand under study. The information on relative impacts of adding or deleting brands is of strategic interest, and models that do not incorporate such effects may be misleading. The designs suggested by Batsell and Polking have 2^m–m–1 choice sets. Even with as few as 10=m brands, this requires over 1000 choice sets. In this paper we provide a catalog of designs for estimating cross effects models in as few as 2m–1 choice sets. This will make cross effects modelling practical in a wide range of academic and commercial settings.     

An analysis of the intra-firm sales activities of Japanese multinational enterprises in the United States: 1977 to 1989

This paper examines the activities of the largest Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in the United States by looking at data on exports, imports, and intra-firm trade between the Japanese subsidiaries in the United States and their parent and other foreign groups. It also examines how much of the domestic sales in the United States are accounted for by local production of the Japanese subsidiaries. Sales data provide an indication of the advantages of being multinational, which are mirrored in the growth of the post-investment sales of overseas units (both manufacturing and non-manufacturing). Data on the flows and stocks of foreign direct investment (FDI) represent the initial decisions to undertake FDI and largely ignore the learning effects of having overseas production.The authors are from the City University of Hong Kong and NORTACK Software Limited. We would like to thank the Editor, Dr Leung Hing-Man, the anonymous referees, and Don Daly, Wendy Dobson, Hiroaki Izumi, Terutomo Ozawa, Alan M Rugman and Rob Tran for their helpful comments. All errors and omissions, however, remain the responsibility of the authors.     

An interview with Rhonda Anderson. Interview by Connie R. Curran

Nurse executives working in a hospital system experience varied and challenging opportunities to enhance the quality of patient care as well as the success of their professional careers. In this interview, Rhonda Anderson, MPA, RN, CNAA, discusses the hospital system, the managed care environment, and the importance of developing nurse managers.