Rethinking bank shareholder equity: The case of Deutsche Bank

We introduce and apply an innovative accounting approach to analyse the equity position of a European systemically important financial institution, Deutsche Bank, between 2001 and 2015. According to our findings, the actual contribution by shareholders to bank equity capital was limited, while shareholder payout policies, including share buybacks and trading on its own shares, were both material. These findings raise concerns on the actual capacity by shareholder equity to assure protection against (residual) risk and loss absorption. Customer and investor protections appear to lay with bank entity equity dynamics. These findings have implications for bank financial sustainability and resilience, company capital maintenance, and regulatory capital requirements. Further developments based upon this innovative methodology may improve on existing prudential and accounting regulations.     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.     

The dynamics of leveraged ETFs returns: a panel data study

Leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs) are limited liability securities that allow investors to take daily constant leverage bets on a reference index. This work proposes a new empirical design to investigate the dynamics of quarterly LETFs returns. Rather than relying on fund-by-fund overlapping regressions, as in existing literature, the paper exploits a large panel of non-overlapping data covering the whole universe of Proshares, the US primary LETFs provider. Overall, it is found that the variables prescribed by theory broadly explain cross-sectional variability. It is also found that inverse LETFs and more generally, leveraged funds operating in asset classes like international equity, bonds and commodities underperform theoretical predictions. This underperformance is mainly attributed to frictions in the process of implementing the required daily leverage.     

养老保险体制改革的动态时间一致性研究

本文构建了一个动态时间一致性模型,并利用中国数据对养老保险体系的动态时间一致性做了经验检验和动态预测。研究发现,按照帕累托效率标准对养老保险体系的参数或结构进行调整只是手段,而提高动态时间一致性才是目的。一项养老改革只有在能够同时增进社会福利和个人投资收益率时,才符合动态时间一致性原则;经验检验表明,1978～2012年间,现收现付制向基金制转轨是不符合动态时间一致性原则的;而1994年之后,将统筹比率控制在06～075之间,则有利于提高养老保险体系的动态时间一致性。预测结果表明,中国政府在2014～2037年和2038～2044年间应将统筹比率分别控制在06～09和025～06之间。     

Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross-section of equity returns?

We propose a multivariate test of the capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns in which we compare cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with stochastic discount factors. We use a multivariate generalized heteroskedasticity in mean model to estimate 25 portfolios that are formed on size and the book-to-market ratio. Each portfolio is allowed to have its own no-arbitrage condition. We find that although the conditional covariances of returns with consumption exhibit negative variation across size, they do not vary across the book-to-market ratio. Thus, C-CAPM can capture the size effect, but not the value effect. The fit is, however, improved by allowing the coefficients on the consumption covariances to be different. The value effect appears to be associated with the book-to-market ratio as well as size. On its own the book-to-market ratio does not generate additional information about average returns to C-CAPM. A possible explanation for these findings is that both small and low book-to-market ratio firms are expected to have higher rates of growth.     

基于主成分分析和BP神经网络算法的股权众筹风险评价研究

近年来,随着股权众筹的迅速发展,其在实际运作中风险评估和防范问题引起了人们的关注.基于此,本文首先利用主成分分析的方法构建了股权众筹风险评估指标体系,其次,利用BP神经网络以众投邦平台股权众筹项目为例进行了实证研究.结果显示:众筹风险评估指标体系由审核估值风险、发起人能力风险、项目本身风险、法律风险、经营风险、监管风险及流动性风险等七个指标构成;BP神经网络的方法在股权众筹风险评估方面是可行且有效的.研究结论可为我国股权众筹风险评估和防控及金融风险防控具有重要的理论及现实意义.     

公司权益价值的非线性效应——基于持续经营和转换期权分析

基于对持续经营价值与转换期权价值的分析,本文将两种非线性效应引入了传统的线性权益定价模型。同时进一步考虑税收摩擦,新的模型刻画了公司权益价值关于其营业收入的凹性关系:即公司的权益价值随公司营业收入单调递增,而其边际贡献却在递减。基于中国A股上市公司财务数据的实证结果表明:就单一行业而言,定价模型所描述的关系基本成立;但由于异质性的存在,不同行业的营业收入与权益价值之间并不存在同一的非线性协整关系。     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.     

基于公平角度的房价合理性研究——以江苏某市为例

房价问题已经成为社会关注的焦点,建立科学的房价合理性评价指标体系成为当前亟待解决的重要问题。许多研究者认为房价收入比是比较合理的方法,本文认为用房价收入比衡量房价合理性不符合当前中国的实际,存在三个方面的缺陷。科学的评价体系必须能够反映收入结构、支出结构和住房供应结构的差异,以机会均等作为房价合理的判别准则。按照这一设想,本文提出了以“住房负担能力、住房机会指数和住房机会均等指数”为核心的房价合理性评价指标体系,并对2005年江苏某市房价合理性进行了实证分析,提出了改善其房价合理性的相关建议。     

Developing Dividend and Financing Policies with a Computer Terminal

This study examines the value relevance of mandated disclosures by UK firms of the investor‐firm share of liabilities of equity‐accounted associate and joint venture investees. It does so for the six years following the introduction of FRS 9: Associates and Joint Ventures, which forced a substantial increase in such disclosures by UK firms. Since the increased disclosure requirements were partly motivated by concern that single‐line equity accounting concealed the level of group gearing, and in light of previous US results, it is predicted that the mandated investee‐liability disclosures have a negative coefficient in a value‐relevance regression. The study also examines whether value‐relevance regression coefficients on investee‐liability disclosures are more negative for joint ventures than for associates and whether they are more negative in the presence of investor‐firm guarantees of investee‐firm obligations than in the absence of such guarantees. The study reports that the coefficient on all investee‐liability disclosures taken together has the predicted negative sign, and is significantly different from zero. It finds little evidence that the negative valuation impact of liability disclosures is stronger for joint venture investees overall than for associate investees overall, or stronger for guarantee cases overall than for non‐guarantee cases overall. There is, however, some evidence that the impact for joint venture guarantee cases is stronger than that for joint venture non‐guarantee cases and stronger than that for associate guarantee cases.