Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?

This paper examines the extent to which foreign borrowing funds private investment, consumption and government expenditure in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand (the Anglosphere), advanced economies which have been the world's largest international borrowers since 1990. Using a bivariate predictive regression model, we estimate the relative importance of these expenditure aggregates as predictors of their external deficits, and hence foreign borrowing. Overall, based on quarterly macroeconomic data for the period 1990–2011, the evidence suggests that foreign borrowing has not financed higher household consumption in these economies over recent decades, with the possible exception of the United States. While results concerning government spending are mixed due to policy reaction, business cycle and public-private saving offset effects, strong results for private investment augur well for the sustainability of this grouping's foreign borrowing.     

Measuring the economic contribution of the international association conference market: An Irish case study

Conferences and meetings are a prerequisite in the modern global economy and can contribute substantially to national income and foreign exchange earnings. This study assesses the economic contribution of the international association conference market to Ireland and highlights key sectors that demonstrate strong multiplier effects. Primary conference expenditure estimates are combined with sector multipliers to determine direct, indirect and induced effects across a range of monetary aggregates in Ireland in 2007. Total direct conference spending of €131.1 million generated €235.8 million in output, €45.4 million in income, €101.6 million in value added, €52.0 million in imports and €9.3 million in product taxes. Key conference sectors are highlighted including hotels and restaurants, renting services of machinery and equipment, air transport and retail shopping. Findings also indicate the varying nature of derived economic effects over discrete time periods, particularly in the post conference period. Overall, the results demonstrate that the conference market contributed substantially to economic aggregates in Ireland in 2007.     

金融机构现金收支对人均GDP的影响——基于建国60年来数据的实证分析

本文运用我国1953～2007年金融机构现金收支与人均GDP数据,实证分析了建国60年来我国金融机构现金收支对人均GDP的影响。Johansen协整检验表明,我国金融机构现金收支与人均GDP之间存在长期的稳定关系;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,金融机构现金收支总额对人均GDP的冲击都存在时滞但方向相反;与金融机构现金收入总额的作用相比,金融机构现金支出总额对人均GDP的方差贡献率相对较大。该实证结果的政策含义是,在我国运用货币政策调节宏观经济是有效的,但政策的制定需要在对宏观经济形势准确预测的基础上具有一定的前瞻性。在全球金融危机发生后,我国及时推行宽松的货币政策,其政策取向是正确的。     

Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model

This paper evaluates the household food security situation in Kenya in terms of access to food. We apply a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model to nationally representative household survey data from Kenya, and estimate and interpret price and expenditure elasticities as indicators of household sensitivity to market shocks. Our estimation results show positive expenditure elasticities, close to unity, while all compensated and uncompensated own-price elasticities are negative and smaller in magnitude. A complementary welfare analysis shows high compensated variations in the long run, ranging between 34% and 131% across food groups. This suggests that rising relative food costs have led to deterioration of the food security situation in Kenya, and the most severely affected households seem to be those that rely on informal markets and reside in rural areas. To improve food security, targeted income support could be a more effective policy than price support, given the much higher estimated expenditure elasticities.     

Persistent homology in tourism: Unlocking the possibilities

Marketing a destination is costly so efficiency of promotion expenditure is critical; identifying improved techniques to achieve this will be of great value. Clustering techniques have sought to identify target markets but are widely criticised for the biases they induce. Persistent Homology identifies key tourist groupings with similar behaviours without the prejudice of the functional forms inherent in most regression models. It further produces more focused, and therefore easily promoted to, markets. Consequently Persistent Homology can highlight obtainable promotion opportunities that otherwise would be missed. This paper provides an example of its application to identify the highest, and lowest, spenders amongst tourists visiting the United Kingdom. We further provide an intuitive theoretical background highlighting the inherent value of the methodology for tourism research. Potential for impact in applications to other aspects of tourism practice is also great as we signpost therein.     

财政支出视角下的基础教育服务均等化研究

本文从公共财政支出的角度,采用两类指标对我国1997-2007年间基础教育服务均等化的基本状况和发展趋势进行实证考察。分析了造成我国基础教育服务发展不均衡状态的深层次原因,并对实现基础教育均等化的途径进行了探讨。     

Budgeting for Equality: The Australian Experience

Gender budgets have now been introduced in varying forms in more than forty countries throughout the world. These exercises emerged out of feminist practical politics initially in Australia and later in a number of other countries. The idea of gender budgets gathered further momentum when the United Nations Beijing Platform for Action called for the integration of a gender perspective into budgetary decision-making. Most of these experiments share three core goals. They seek to: (1) mainstream gender issues within government policies; (2) promote greater accountability for governments' commitment to gender equality; and (3) change budgets and policies. However, very little research has examined their success in achieving these goals. In discussing the lessons learnt from the Australian experience, this paper adopts a feminist political economy perspective on the state as an analytical starting point for discussing the future of gender budgets elsewhere in the world.     

广东省财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1978～2007年时间序列数据的验证

政府财政支出与经济增长之间的关系如何,学术界目前还没有一致性的结论。本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的财政支出与GDP时间序列数据进行分析,认为广东省GDP和财政支出总量之间有着正向的关系,并且它们之间有着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的格兰杰原因,而不是相反。     

A comparison of results of three statistical methods to understand the determinants of festival participants’ expenditures

The aim of the research reported upon in this study is to examine the impact of visitors’ socio-demographic and festival experience-related variables on expenditure levels and patterns of visits to festivals. Three statistical models including logit, OLS (ordinary least square) and Tobit models are employed to identify and examine the differences or similarities in results from three different approaches. A comparison of the three approaches using cross-section survey data generated differences in model fit. In addition, it was found that the set of independent variables which were significant in estimating festival visitors’ expenditures varied between the three models. As such the findings of this study suggest a singular statistical approach may be inferior to multiple ones in gaining a full understanding of the determinants of festival participants’ expenditure.