控制权转移、民营化与财务报告质量:相关研究评述与启示

随着我国资本市场的发展和国有资本的战略性退出,控制权转移的上市公司在数量和比例上进一步增加,尤其是大量国有企业转变为民营企业。如何评价控制权转移后财务报告质量变化,以及如何提高中国企业民营化趋势中财务报告质量,具有重要的现实意义。本文对国内外关于所有权转移的研究成果尤其是国有企业民营化研究进行了简要的回顾与评述,并提出了在此领域后续研究应当关注的问题,以期对我国研究民营化对财务报告质量研究提供参考。     

民营上市公司财务困境锁定的实证研究

本文运用路径锁定理论,对民营上市公司财务困境形成过程进行研究,并选取在上海、深圳证券交易所公开上市且陷入财务困境的民营上市公司为样本,对民营上市公司财务困境锁定进行了实证分析。研究表明,民营上市公司财务困境存在路径锁定现象,不同类型的财务困境公司存在不同的路径锁定。     

开放条件下中国货币与经济关联度变动原因实证研究

本文运用动态条件相关(DCC)方法估计中国各层次货币与实体经济的关联度。研究发现,1994年前,关联度始终在低位波动,之后大幅提高,总体呈上升趋势。通过在模型中引入金融深化度和经济开放度,本文从不同的侧面解释了货币与经济关联度变动的原因。虽然金融深化度和经济开放度对关联度的影响程度随货币层次的提高而增强,但作用方向却不完全相同;金融深化度越高,经济开放度越低,关联度越强,这表明金融深化理论与中国国情相适应。这对于改革开放具有较强的现实意义。政府通过优先发展金融,深化金融体制改革,能够提高货币对经济增长的效能,促进经济结构的转型和经济持续增长。     

上市公司财务危机预警“Z”值区域研究与分析

本文以上市公司作为研究对象,将公司因财务状况异常而被特别处理(ST)作为企业陷入财务困境的标志,利用奥特曼的Z记分模型作多元判别分析,测试符合我国上市公司实际情况的Z值,并将其作为我国上市公司财务危机预警的指标值。实证结果显示,采用多元判别分析可以得到判别财务危机公司与非财务危机公司的Z值区域,并且可以保证较高的判别精确度。同时也发现,相对于主营业务收入指标,现金流量指标为更好的警兆指标。     

金融工具会计准则交易税制设计的思考

为了规范金融工具的确认和计量,反映金融工具对金融机构财务状况和经营成果所带来的真实影响,揭示其潜在风险,提高金融机构的会计信息的质量,新颁布的金融工具会计准则采用公允价值计量,并将损益纳入当期损益。本文分析了此举对我国税制所产生的影响,并对金融工具交易的税制设计提出了设想。     

论美国风险投资维护金融安全的经验及启示

风险投资对于维护金融安全而言有利也有弊,而美国风险投资却趋利避害,不仅促进了美国实体经济的发展,也为稳定美国金融安全作出了贡献。究其原因,美国风险投资有科学的组织模式、广泛的资金来源、谨慎的投资方式的选择、健全的服务与监管体系,而且还有美国政府的大力支持。本文以美国的成功经验为鉴提出了发展我国风险投资的一些看法。     

Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Giffen goods and market making

Summary. This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible for the Giffen goods anomaly affecting traders demands in multi asset noisy, rational expectations equilibrium markets. The role that information plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market with risk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents have a dual trading motive: speculation and market making. The former entails using prices to assess the effect of error terms; the latter requires employing them to disentangle noise traders demands within aggregate orders. In a correlated environment this complicates the signal extraction problem and may generate upward sloping demand curves. Assuming (i) that competitive, risk neutral market makers price the assets or that (ii) uninformed traders risk tolerance coefficient grows unboundedly, removes the market making component from informed traders demands rendering them well behaved in prices.Received: 30 April 2002, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: G100, G120, G140.Support from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA and the Ente per gli Studi Monetari e Finanziari Luigi Einaudi, are gratefully acknowledged. I thank Anat Admati, Jordi Caballé, Giacinta Cestone, and Xavier Vives for useful suggestions. The comments provided by the Associate Editor and an anonymous referee greatly improved the papers exposition.     

我国跨国公司融资问题分析

我国跨国企业资本结构不尽合理，资产负债率总体水平偏低，而且呈稳中趋降的趋势。造成这一现象的根本原因是我国跨国企业在融资顺序的选择上倾向于股权融资而忽视债权融资，存在明显的股权融资偏好，这与融资优序理论相悖。本文以跨国企业为研究对象，从我国跨国企业融资行为及其导致的资本结构存在的问题入手，通过对这种现象产生的原因的深入分析，对我国跨国企业融资结构优化提出了几点建议。     

Government financing in an endogenous growth model with financial market restrictions

Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix. We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation. An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate. Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001