FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

兰州中小工业企业社会与地域根植研究

新经济社会学认为,经济活动根植于社会关系和结构中,经济过程也是社会过程,经济地理学家在区域经济发展研究中则把社会根植扩展为地域根植。我国有关中小企业地域根植的实践研究集中在产业集群和高技术开发区,而对大企业占优地区中小企业的根植很少论及。本文基于企业问卷调查和访谈,探讨了兰州中小工业企业的社会和地域根植。研究表明,由于地理背景不同,兰州中小企业网络的特征和功能较我国原发性传统产业集群有很大不同。作者认为,用根植理论分析区域发展时必须充分考虑区域情景,同时也要考虑更为宏观的要素如国家制度、区间网络和更大范围内的劳动分工等。     

Adult mortality in Russia

This paper studies the determinants of Russian adult mortality controlling for both individual and household heterogeneity. We employ survival analysis and utilize 12 rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey spanning a 14‐year period. Although confirming the crucial role of excessive alcohol consumption in shaping adult mortality risks in Russia, the results are original in several other respects. We find empirical support for the importance of relative status measured in non‐income terms in shaping mortality hazards. We find evidence of the influence of labour market behaviour, and sectoral and occupational mobility in particular, on longevity. The detrimental role of smoking to health is found to be comparable with the role of excess alcohol consumption, which is novel in the Russian context where the influence of smoking is typically downplayed in comparison with alcoholism. Finally, we find no micro evidence in support of the political economy view based on a positive correlation between low alcohol prices and high mortality rates found in regional‐level data.     

我国现代粮食专业物流发展概况与趋势分析

现代粮食专业物流作为一种新兴产业,被喻为＂第三利润源泉＂,在经济发展中的地位和作用也越来越明显,有着旺盛的生命力和广阔的发展前景。我国粮食专业物流比其他物流发展相对滞缓,但由于粮食是一种大宗的特殊商品,以其数量大、牵涉面广、流通费用高,在整个物流中始终占据着重要的位置。分析了我国粮食专业物流概况、特点、现状及制约因素,探索性地提出了实现我国粮食专业物流科学化运作的对策建议。     

土地利用现状调查信息系统的设计与功能概述

土地利用现状调查是我国土地资源管理中的一项重要工作,它主要是对土地所有权、使用权界线及各类用地面积进行调查汇总,用以将来制定科学合理的土地利用规划。本文即对调查中所利用的重要信息工具土地利用现状调查系统的设计和功能进行介绍。     

Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question

Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.     

Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

We consider whether it is possible to determine if macro forecasters are attempting to forecast first estimates of data, or revised estimates. Our approach requires that data revisions are predictable prior to the first estimate being released. There is some evidence that this condition is met for some series, and that some forecasters put some weight on later estimates for consumers’ expenditure and the GDP deflator.     

Landowner willingness to supply marginal land for bioenergy production

This study elicits willingness to supply marginal land for biomass cultivation in Southern Lower Michigan. Most of the surveyed landowners are not interested in renting land for bioenergy crop production. Those who are interested offer relatively little land for bioenergy crops, even at rental rates three times current levels. Willing landowners would prefer to grow a significant portion of these crops on cropland rather than non-crop, marginal land. Hence, the area of marginal land that owners are willing to supply for bioenergy crop production falls far short of area estimates based on remote sensing that ignore landowner preferences.     

Do Retailers Benefit from Deploying Customer Analytics?

Prior research has documented a general positive relationship between the deployment of customer analytics and firm performance. In this research we focus on the retailing industry, an industry characterized by tight margins that lead to careful scrutiny of all business investments. Using survey data from 418 top managers based in the Americas, Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia, we show that of the eight industries in the study, firms in the retail industry have the most to gain from deploying customer analytics. However, we also find that not only do many retailers not perceive this potential gain, they do not invest in customer analytics at an economically appropriate level. Thus we identify a gap between perception and reality concerning the potential for customer analytics in the retail industry that has both theoretical and practical implications.     

Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts

We propose a framework for evaluating the conditionality of forecasts. The crux of our framework is the observation that a forecast is conditional if revisions to the conditioning factor are incorporated faithfully into the remainder of the forecast. We consider whether the Greenbook, Blue Chip survey and Survey of Professional Forecasters exhibit systematic biases in the manner in which they incorporate interest rate projections into the forecasts of other macroeconomic variables. We do not find strong evidence of systematic biases in the three economic forecasts that we consider, as the interest rate projections in these forecasts appear to be incorporated efficiently into the forecasts of other economic variables.