粤港澳大湾区城市群区域治理机制的架构思考:从政府治理权出发

推进建设粤港澳大湾区城市群,尤其应当重视各级政府在该区域治理机制架构中的地位。协调不同法域、不同层级和不同类型地方政府之间的治理权,是推进该城市群协调发展,并率先推进实现新型城镇化转型的基础和保障。就该区域而言,政府治理权的架构可以分为三个层次:根据中央顶层设计的区域布局,推动地方政府转换行使治理权的视阈,合理安排不同地方政府治理权,并建立权力协作机制;由此机制出发,协调区域内各地方的发展方向,深化彼此之间利益共生关系;最后,与利益共享对应,还应当配合财政供给改革,实现区域治理责任的成本共担。     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation

This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news.     

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant‐sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.     

Markets for information: Of inefficient firewalls and efficient monopolies

In this paper we study market environments where information is costly to acquire and is also useful to potential competitors. Agents may sell, or buy, reports over the information acquired and choose their trades in the market on the basis of what they learnt. Reports are unverifiable – cheap talk messages – hence the quality of the information transmitted depends on the conflicts of interest faced by the senders. We find that, when information has a prevalent horizontal differentiation component, in equilibrium information is acquired when its costs are not too high and in that case it is also sold, though reports are typically noisy. The market for information is in most cases a monopoly, and there is underinvestment in information acquisition. We also show that regulatory interventions, in the form of firewalls, only make the inefficiency worse. Efficiency can be attained with a monopolist selling differentiated information, provided entry is blocked.     

商业银行存款保险制度在我国的发展前景

从当前国内外存款保险制度理论研究现状入手,基于我国特殊国情,探讨我国实行存款保险制度的现实意义、难点及途径.提出我国应充分发挥优势,博采众长,探索建设中国特色存款保险制度.     

公共利益类型化研究——一种实证分析的研究进路

类型化是立法机关规制公共利益的主要方法,是公共利益多样性、发展性、复杂性的客观要求,也是从立法技术上将公共利益具体化的有效途径之一,其能够为公共利益执法和司法提供操作性较强的制度规范。我国学界对公共利益的分类,并没有区分公共利益在不同学科中的不同意义,也没有区分法律中与日常生活中的不同意义。同时,这些公共利益的类型划分过分抽象和狭隘,缺乏法律上的可操作性。公共利益类型非常丰富,不仅包括经济利益,还包括非经济利益;不仅包括物质形式的公共利益,还包括精神层面的公共利益。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

ACCOUNTABILITY AND THE PUBLIC INTEREST IN THE NONPROFIT SECTOR: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

This paper clarifies the nature of nonprofit accountability by distinguishing between the substantive and processual understandings of the public interest. The major theories of the nonprofit sector are shown to imply that this sector's activities correspond to the public interest only in its processual understanding, but not in the substantive one. Policy and management implications of this argument are discussed.     

Valuation of forward start options under affine jump-diffusion models

Under the general affine jump-diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Econometrica, 2000, 68, 1343–1376], this paper proposes an alternative pricing methodology for European-style forward start options that does not require any parallel optimization routine to ensure square integrability. Therefore, the proposed methodology is shown to possess a better accuracy–efficiency trade-off than the usual and more general approach initiated by Hong [Forward Smile and Derivative Pricing. Working paper, UBS, 2004] that is based on the knowledge of the forward characteristic function. Explicit pricing solutions are also offered under the nested jump-diffusion setting proposed by Bakshi et al. [J. Finance, 1997, 52, 2003–2049], which accommodates stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and different integration schemes are numerically tested.