Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

Abstract

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period length should be modelled together in order to understand the intricacies of the underlying processes. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to connect all the above-mentioned pieces in a climate trend uncertainty quantification framework. Inference in such models allows us to observe some seemingly nonsensical outcomes. We argue that they must be pondered rather than discarded until we understand how they arise. We would like to stress that the main focus of this paper is the use of BNs in complex probabilistic settings rather than the application itself.     

利用RBF神经网络对装备完好性敏感性进行分析

装备维修保障系统作为装备系统的组成部分,对维持武器装备处于高水平的任务可用状态扮演着不可或缺的角色,高技术武器装备对维修保障的敏感性高。论文确立了装备完好性敏感性分析指标选取的原则,借鉴美军诊断装备完好性的方法,选取了本地库存满足率、工作区率、基地库存满足率等一系列有较强的实际意义的敏感性指标,使用熵权法确定了这些指标的权重,并对源数据进行了标准化处理．最后运用RBF神经网络对装备战备完好敏感性进行了分析,为部队掌控装备完好性提供了一个新的思路。     

投资项目评价方法的比较分析

回顾了投资项目评价方法的发展,分析了现有评价方法之间的关系。然后,从投资项目的收益流、投资价值、投资成本、投资时机、影响因素以及应用范围等方面,对已有投资项目评价方法进行了比较分析。最后,通过将期权博弈方法与其它评价方法进行两两比较,讨论了期权博弈方法的优越性,指出期权博弈方法是目前战略投资环境中评价项目价值最可靠、最合理的方法。     

CEO inside debt and investment‐cash flow sensitivity

This paper provides a new explanation for investment‐cash flow sensitivity from the perspective of CEO inside debt holdings. We examine the effect of CEO pensions and deferred compensation (inside debt) on investment‐cash flow sensitivity for a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms from 2006 to 2012. We find that the firms with higher relative CEO leverage ratios (CEO's debt/equity ratio scaled by the firm's debt/equity ratio) generate higher investment‐cash flow sensitivity. Moreover, one standard deviation increase in the logarithm of the relative CEO leverage ratio enlarges investment‐cash flow sensitivity by 50 per cent. This positive relationship still holds even after we take account of endogeneity and financial constraints.     

景泰县耕地后备资源生态敏感性评价与空间利用对策研究

[目的]中国西部干旱半干旱地区是我国耕地后备资源集中分布区和生态脆弱地区,保护生态环境稳定、实现有序稳妥开发是确保耕地后备资源可持续利用的前提。文章以甘肃省景泰县为例,采用新一轮耕地后备资源调查评价数据成果进行生态敏感性评价,以期为耕地后备资源的利用和管理提供参考。[方法]基于第二轮耕地后备资源调查评价成果,结合区域生态环境特征,构建了水土流失、土地沙漠化以及土壤盐渍化等3类因子共11项指标的生态敏感性评价体系,采取单因子评价法和多因子综合评价法,测算了耕地后备资源开发利用的生态敏感性。[结果]根据生态敏感性综合评价结果,可将景泰县耕地后备资源划分为不敏感、轻度敏感、中度敏感和高度敏感区域。综合来看,景泰县耕地后备资源约91.32%面积存在生态敏感性问题,其中以轻度敏感性为主;从单因子角度看,景泰县耕地后备资源的水土流失问题最为突出,敏感性面积比例超过96%,其次为土地沙漠化,敏感性面积达到65.50%, 1.77%的区域对土壤盐渍化存在敏感性。[结论]根据耕地后备资源生态敏感性评价结果,为保证耕地占补平衡以及降低生态风险,提出对策建议:应着重对于敏感性高的区域实施更为科学的保护和开发措施,避免造成恶劣的生态环境问题。     

Revisiting a Theory-Supported Approach to Teaching Cross-Cultural Management Skills

Abstract

Cross—cultural skills are a major criterion for success in the global business environment. For American managers in multinational organizations, this means learning to manage cultural difference at three levels: self, interpersonal, and organizational. Since literature indicates that training programs based on cross—cultural and learning theories are more effective, this paper examines a training program that Serrie first reported in a 1992 issue of JTIB. The five related and synergistic activities discussed in the paper give participants experience in dealing with and solving real—world problems in cross-cultural management at all three levels. The process is reassessed in terms of recent theory, and to confirm the efficacy of this approach, a pretest—posttest experiment was conducted with a treatment group and control groups. Results show that the treatment group was the only one to show a significant (at p < 0.05) increase in intercultural expertisea measure of cross—cultural skill. Limitations and implications are discussed.     

河南物流业产业波及效果现状分析

针对河南省物流业产业波及效果动态分析,可以探求物流业同国民经济体系中相关产业的技术经济联系,进而找出物流业发展的一般规律,认清物流业同其他产业的关联度,这对产业结构优化和产业政策的制定是非常重要的。     

CEO政治关系与薪酬-回报的非对称敏感性

本文从信任角度研究了公司如何设计针对具有政治关系CEO的薪酬契约。具体来说,分析并验证了两个推论:第一,由于股东对CEO不完全信任,CEO现金薪酬对负股票回报的敏感性要大于对正股票回报的敏感性;第二,CEO的代表委员类政治关系会增进股东对CEO的信任,从而这类CEO薪酬-回报的非对称敏感程度较低。本文从薪酬契约角度发展了当前高管政治关系的研究,并且为薪酬契约设计研究提供了新的经验证据。     

Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism

Demand elasticities for New Zealand tourism are estimated for 16 different international visitor segments. Segments are differentiated by origin, purpose of visit, and travel style. Elasticities for both international visitor arrivals and on-the-ground expenditure per arrival are estimated for each segment using time-series data. In general, on-the-ground consumption per arrival is more price sensitive than number of arrivals, and Asian market segments are found to be more price sensitive, both in terms of arrivals and on-the-ground expenditure, compared to international visitors from other regions. An application of the results is presented giving the total effect of exchange rate changes on expenditure by international visitors in New Zealand, and management implications are discussed.     

Service Quality and Customers' Willingness to Pay More for Travel Services

Abstract

Increasingly sophisticated and price conscious consumers have combined with forces of globalisation and electronic commerce to create new challenges for travel agents. To maintain efficiency and profitability, travel agents need to know the links between service quality and customers' willingness to pay more (WTPM). These links are explored through measuring customer perceptions (N = 122) of service quality, loyalty and WTPM. The results revealed firstly that while many consumers were able to pay more for travel services, fewer were willing to do so. Secondly, overall service quality and its underlying dimensions were positively associated with selected WTPM items. These findings support and extend previous studies on the service quality-behavioural intentions link and provide practical implications for the travel industry in relation to a differentiated price and service strategy.